frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This is why the snow means jump day 10-15 on the GEFS and EPS even though we are under a ridge. If that look up top is correct storms will be forced under us as there will be a parade of high pressure blocked across the north. Been noticing the trend for higher mb High pressure centers moving West to East, I like !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, frd said: I know people laugh at what I am going to say here next, but take my word on this that both HM and Isotherm use eruptions of volcanoes greater than VEI 3 in determining the NA pattern, as they effect blocking and the HL. I think we are going to see some effects of all the recent activity manifest itself somehow. Would love a HM post just on this element. He mentioned it not long ago comparing winters, I know he has brought this up several times in the past 2 or 3 months. I don't laugh at that... I don't understand the cause/effect relationship well enough to add much but I don't laugh at things I don't understand. As far as the blocking... we are due for another -NAO period. We had a period of blocking in the late 1800s and again around the middle of the last century and we are due for another. If/when that happens some of the assumptions about certain other influences will change. For instance, a nina wasn't necessarily a bad thing during the -nao periods. We have had some pretty good nina winters when the nao was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 25 minutes ago, frd said: Been noticing the trend for higher mb High pressure centers moving West to East, I like !!! It's all about the blocking...get that epo/nao ridge connection across the top along with the 50/50 and it will promote high pressure across southern Canada and the northern CONUS and they will be locked in by the 50/50. Regardless of the se ridge storms will be forced west to east under the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 Here is phase 8 for Nino seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 Weeklies 3 weeks ago for today. Screen shots from wxrisk video lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Here is phase 8 for Nino seasons Where do you get those mjo h5 analogs from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. The trends the last 48 have been impressive, but based on the events ongoing in the North Atlantic and the Pac, I could speculate that we may not have even seen the weeniest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: The trends the last 48 have been impressive, but based on the events ongoing in the North Atlantic and the Pac, I could speculate that we may not have even seen the weeniest run yet. The trends in the models are predictable given the pacific. We watched the same/inverse trends all winter when the pac forcing was destructive...now it is constructive and we are seeing the positive influence, equally under-estimated by guidance at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. what you're saying is i should do a backflush on my jeep's heater core sooner than later (just had to replace the radiator and thermostat...fun times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. e12 thinks we both get 40"+ in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 @psuhoffman Need to appease Ralph and his daily criticism of looking too far down the road. Through d10 aint no slouch either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I'll take E7 and E12 for us Winchester folks. That's a lot of pretty colors out this way on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ji said: Weeklies 3 weeks ago for today. Screen shots from wxrisk video lol JB says we go from Feb 94 to Feb 2010 lol There are some similarities to both "SOME" and I am very on board with the potential...but its just amazing that every pattern he uses the absolute most extreme example He jumped the shark years ago when he forecasted some 1" frontal snows and literally said "but it might be the worst 1" snow ever". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: *snowmaps* holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 @psuhoffman http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: thanks lol thats it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. I'm having flashbacks to early January with every new weeklies and ens run being better in the LR. I think this time around has more support from seasonal pattern drivers going for it. I think cautious optimism should definitely guide our way here while we continue to track some legit threats in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Need to appease Ralph and his daily criticism of looking too far down the road. Through d10 aint no slouch either Cautiously optimistic. Not pessimistic on the pattern upcoming (at least trying not to be sorry if coming off that way). Just playing devils advocate at times. The LR has burned us hard at least twice this season already. Third time is the charm. Like I said above and I am with you and psu and showme.....the seasonal catalysts are on our side for once so this HAS to be the real deal. Just want to get thru these next few events here and get something more than a nuisance storm under our belts where I'm at. We should all be happy campers sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 the euro did the most complete about face for this weekend...wow...00z had a MECS...12z has a storm way up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro did the most complete about face for this weekend...wow...00z had a MECS...12z has a storm way up north U sure? Looks like it is forced under and redevelops off Va Capes then heads ene this run. Compare 216 to 240 eta: 216 slp in ne Wisconsin but redevelopment near VA NC border by 240 new low is bombed well off coast and moving out. Quick hitter but dont think the main show is north. Certainly not 0z either as u said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: U sure? Looks like it is forced under and redevelopis off Va Capes then heads ene this run. Compare 216 to 240 You're looking at the old run, it has a cutter way up into canada this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You're looking at the old run, it has a cutter way up into canada this run. Nah it's this run but didnt check 850s. With those temps any transfer is irrelevant so yep euro just crapped the bed late week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 EPS started building -NAO at Day 10 yesterday and today it starts at Day 9 so that’s good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. dont assume anything...everything that we know about winter...the exact opposite has happened this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 the EPS snowfall mean sucks...its only 6 but 3 is from an event a few days away....so the other 3 are in the next 10 days after that. yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the EPS snowfall mean sucks...its only 6 but 3 is from an event a few days away....so the other 3 are in the next 10 days after that. yikes! That’s the same increase as last run when it went from 2” to 5” after the storm early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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