Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 20 minutes ago, 87storms said: i wasn't as disappointed in march 2001 as i thought i'd be. this was before i knew about weather boards, but the fact that i was able to shoot hoops in shorts and a tshirt the day before was a yellow flag for me. some of the worst busts were in the 80s/90s when they'd call for a winter storm watch or warning and you'd wake up to a non accumulating rain/snow mix lol. i think it was before models were able to pick up on how much the appalachians destroy clippers and weak lows here. Models had less skill period. Many big storms here are razors edge between a crushing and a fail. Day 2 in modeland back then is day 4 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like a parade of storms on the gfs....similar to the one for early next week. Big cold highs to the N and juiced up systems attacking....hopefully as we get out in the D10-15 with a little better overall h5 look we can time one of these up with a good block. Gonna be a wild month I think ... Eta: Like this block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 So, naturally...the EURO in fantasy range has this at 240...right on PD weekend (now if by Sunday we actually start seeing more guidance try and put somethin' there I'll be no good, lolol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Models had less skill period. Many big storms here are razors edge between a crushing and a fail. Day 2 in modeland back then is day 4 now. Had a similar situation tho I'm not sure this sub region had the same impacts as the fail of late Jan(?) 2015. We were forecast by every model to get 14-28" of snow even up until 12 hours prior. Some models slowly backed off but I remember the euro hung on and may have even increased totals. Woke up to partly sunny and pixie dust snow flurries. Busts still happen even with advancement in skill level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 hours ago, poolz1 said: Looks like a parade of storms on the gfs....similar to the one for early next week. Big cold highs to the N and juiced up systems attacking....hopefully as we get out in the D10-15 with a little better overall h5 look we can time one of these up with a good block. Gonna be a wild month I think ... Eta: Like this block... Eps says gfs/gefs out to lunch and brings the WAR back by day 10 (weak neg NAO is there anyway but 50/50 pulls away so not sure the Atl works there based on the look out West). One camp is going to fail by day 10. Not worried about post D+10 need to see what happens prior imo. Euro is emphatic implying this 10 day stretch is where we should be focusing and forget about fantasyland for now. If the day 10 look is the sacrifice we make on the EPS to get what the euro OP throws at us between now and then I'm in. Then give me a side of gefs/geps thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6z gfs looks pretty ok for the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gonna say it just because I know nobody else will....looks like early Jan again where many are unicorn hunting out past day 10 where our best opportunities of the entire winter may be right under our noses over the next 10 days. Funny how winter 2019 works. Eta: Not saying day 10+ is a fail just saying there is alot of talk that the "best look" is way out there and yet to come. I'm not sure the "best look" thing has been the one to work out has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 6z gfs looks pretty ok for the end of next week If we get a due W to E track along the gradient like some guidance is showing and dont trend toward amping things in the midwest this will certainly work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Noob question. WAR? Western Atlantic Ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Noob question. WAR? Western Atlantic Ridging? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Noob question. WAR? Western Atlantic Ridging? You could just say Ralph Wiggum and it would mean the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You could just say Ralph Wiggum and it would mean the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dude, you need to be more like Frankie and Relax. Don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 hours ago, Ji said: 11 hours ago, Stormpc said: Was it the 2000 or 2001 bust where Kocin was preaching the loop de loop? Both were epic. I remember going outside Friday night at midnight and seeing a clear sky and full moon after only hours earlier it had clouded up (2000 storm). That was 2001. After that storm...a month later...to make my depression worse...my company winstar folded and I lost my job Ji do you remember talking to me on AIM the night of the Dec 2000 bust? You said you were leaving a party and knew it was a bad sign that you could still see stars in the sky....Don’t ask me why I remember that lol....That was the first year I got into wx boards etc. One thing I remember leading up to March 01 was Ji & Noreaster’s (not sure if he posts anymore or has a new username) infamous threads on wright-weather. That storm was a punch in the gut. Who also remembers JB’s newsletter title on Saturday AM before the event? Anyway, 6z EPS looked colder & showed more CAD for next week’s event, and the day 9-10 thing could make up for it if it ends up being a bust....fun times ahead hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Dude, you need to be more like Frankie and Relax. Don't do it. I'd much rather be walking in a Winter Wonderland but hey, maybe soon enough right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Eps says gfs/gefs out to lunch and brings the WAR back by day 10 (weak neg NAO is there anyway but 50/50 pulls away so not sure the Atl works there based on the look out West). One camp is going to fail by day 10. Not worried about post D+10 need to see what happens prior imo. Euro is emphatic implying this 10 day stretch is where we should be focusing and forget about fantasyland for now. If the day 10 look is the sacrifice we make on the EPS to get what the euro OP throws at us between now and then I'm in. Then give me a side of gefs/geps thereafter. Before I open this can of whoop a$$ let me first say I appreciate your input so don't take this the wrong way but..... Why are you comparing the day 10 EPS to the day 16 GFS? Why are you cherry picking the one very brief period where the WAR pops up as a transient period on the EPS? Its gone again soon after and by day 15 there is a monster 50/50 signal again Some people can have more than one train of thought at the same time. It's possible to discuss both the threats within the next 10 days AND the period after 10 days. One does not necessary detract from the other. There are many times (90%) when your snow climo isnt THAT far off from most of this sub. HOWEVER, a -EPO/-PNA pattern with no blocking is NOT one of them. Your chances the next 10 days are significantly better according to climo than most of this sub. You can win with that look...its much harder for DC to win with a SE ridge without NAO blocking...so maybe there is a regional reason some on here are "looking" ahead to a possible period of better blocking. Places south and east of DC are very unlikely to score a significant snowstorm in a -PNA without blocking. This is the EPS day 15 which is a more fair comp to the GFS day 16 panel you were comparing it too .... which the guidance has been trending towards for a while now...and I suspect that SE ridge will continue to get muted more and more if the NAO look is correct (all guidance trending towards that) and the soi/mjo signal is correct. There is absolutely no basis for a strong SE ridge if we have a -soi, phase 8/1 MJO, and a -NAO/EPO. The weather never ceases to amaze me so anything is possible but if those other signals are correct the boundary will end up south of us in that pattern. None of that means we cannot score before that. The threats next week have my attention, especially the one towards next weekend. BUT... for those of us south of you the more blocking we get, the further south we can drive the boundary, the better our chances to score. This week has opportunity but its flawed and history suggests we end up on the wrong side most of the time in this type of pattern. Add nao blocking and suddenly history suggest we win. Those are just the probabilities based on climo and analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Before I open this can of whoop a$$ let me first say I appreciate your input so don't take this the wrong way but..... Why are you comparing the day 10 EPS to the day 16 GFS? Why are you cherry picking the one very brief period where the WAR pops up as a transient period on the EPS? Its gone again soon after and by day 15 there is a monster 50/50 signal again Some people can have more than one train of thought at the same time. It's possible to discuss both the threats within the next 10 days AND the period after 10 days. One does not necessary detract from the other. There are many times (90%) when your snow climo isnt THAT far off from most of this sub. HOWEVER, a -EPO/-PNA pattern with no blocking is NOT one of them. Your chances the next 10 days are significantly better according to climo than most of this sub. You can win with that look...its much harder for DC to win with a SE ridge without NAO blocking...so maybe there is a regional reason some on here are "looking" ahead to a possible period of better blocking. Places south and east of DC are very unlikely to score a significant snowstorm in a -PNA without blocking. This is the EPS day 15 which is a more fair comp to the GFS day 16 panel you posted .... which the guidance has been trending towards for a while now...and I suspect that SE ridge will continue to get muted more and more if the NAO look is correct (all guidance trending towards that) and the soi/mjo signal is correct. There is absolutely no basis for a strong SE ridge if we have a -soi, phase 8/1 MJO, and a -NAO/EPO. The weather never ceases to amaze me so anything is possible but if those other signals are correct the boundary will end up south of us in that pattern. None of that means we cannot score before that. The threats next week have my attention, especially the one towards next weekend. BUT... for those of us south of you the more blocking we get, the further south we can drive the boundary, the better our chances to score. This week has opportunity but its flawed and history suggests we end up on the wrong side most of the time in this type of pattern. Add nao blocking and suddenly history suggest we win. Those are just the probabilities based on climo and analogs. Great write up psu. I was wondering about the 240 WAR he was speaking about in light of the tellies that are arguing against it. your 360 snapshot mutes that argument for sure. It will be nice in the next few days to hopefully start to see more consistency in the LR as we get to a more favorable/stable regime winter wise. Current regime has been stable mind you...but not in a good way. Cutting is a bad habit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 LOL at how the MJO is still the driver here... The GEFS looks less favorable day 6-9 because it keeps the MJO is phase 7. The Euro gets into 8 and looks better. Then the Euro crashes the MJO for a couple days and that is exactly when the SE ridge pops back up...before the MJO goes into 1 and the trough starts to shift east again at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Start of the SOI crash looks to be 3 days away. Tropical convection looks to align perfectly in the central pac starting in a few days as well. Everything is still progressing. We are crossing inside the time period where it evaporated the last time this SOI/MJO look was showing up in mid January. I am not sure that dip in the MJO on the euro is real... it may be, but as long as it is only temporary and the wave progresses into 1 after we will be good. But none of the other guidance has a deamplification there so I am not even confident its real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Start of the SOI crash looks to be 3 days away. Tropical convection looks to align perfectly in the central pac starting in a few days as well. Everything is still progressing. We are crossing inside the time period where it evaporated the last time this SOI/MJO look was showing up in mid January. I am not sure that dip in the MJO on the euro is real... it may be, but as long as it is only temporary and the wave progresses into 1 after we will be good. But none of the other guidance has a deamplification there so I am not even confident its real. Does the CFS have the dip? If not, maybe the Euro will adjust. Look at the last four days how the Euro has shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 @psuhoffman can you commnet on this ? Good or bad? I would think good , but I have a head cold and cant think this morning. I hope you are having a better day then me. This is 33andrain and webbweather The GFS might be a bit overdone but I think we could see a gigantic WWB near the dateline next week as an Equatorial Rossby Wave interferes w/ the lowpass ENSO signal. We're at that time of the year where ENSO is most receptive to high frequency noise like this, granted you can clearly see this isn't just fleeting noise anymore w/ the 3rd legitimate 150E-180E WWB in the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, frd said: Does the CFS have the dip? If not, maybe the Euro will adjust. Look at the last four days how the Euro has shifted. No... I am skeptical of that temporary dip on the eps mjo. BUT...even if its real so long as its not the start of the permanent wave de-amplification we would be ok. I was just pointing out that it is not a coincidence that when the EPS goes into phase 8 the trough gets into the east...then the mjo wave dies for 3/4 days and the trough retrogrades into the west...then the MJO wave spikes into Phase 1 and suddenly the NAO tanks and the trough shifts east. The other guidance takes the MJO into phase 7 instead of 8 day 6-10 and so it keeps the trough axis further west during that time. It's pretty apparent that the MJO is still driving the pattern here, or in this case, driving the models interpretation of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's pretty apparent that the MJO is still driving the pattern here, or in this case, driving the models interpretation of it. It been unrelenting this winter, simply incredible. We MUST get that MJO to move it phase 8 and then 1 without any issues this time. If you believe the modeling this is the best combination of factors so far to achieve that needed result with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman can you commnet on this ? Good or bad? I would think good , but I have a head cold and cant think this morning. I hope you are having a better day then me. This is 33andrain and webbweather The GFS might be a bit overdone but I think we could see a gigantic WWB near the dateline next week as an Equatorial Rossby Wave interferes w/ the lowpass ENSO signal. We're at that time of the year where ENSO is most receptive to high frequency noise like this, granted you can clearly see this isn't just fleeting noise anymore w/ the 3rd legitimate 150E-180E WWB in the past month. If we can get it east of the dateline (as it seems to be heading there) it would be a good thing. One thing I continue to see and that just confounds me, is this implication that we need something to mute the nino signal. First of all it's been muted all season. Second, a weak to moderate basin wide or central nino is NOT a hostile signal for eastern CONUS cold. I thought we were past the time when people just plastered the super nino climo onto every +enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we can get it east of the dateline (as it seems to be heading there) it would be a good thing. One thing I continue to see and that just confounds me, is this implication that we need something to mute the nino signal. First of all it's been muted all season. Second, a weak to moderate basin wide or central nino is NOT a hostile signal for eastern CONUS cold. I thought we were past the time when people just plastered the super nino climo onto every +enso. Good points. Yeah, not sure the point here. He has posted 6 weeks this could be a two year event and then this post. I mean this is a pathetic Nino so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, frd said: Good points. Yeah, not sure the point here. He has posted 6 weeks this could be a two year event and then this post. I mean this is a pathetic Nino so far. It could be, the failure of it to develop into a significant event this year increases the threat of a nino next year. So long as it's not a super nino that would be great. There are no signs right now of a super nino. USUALLY there are some hints of that by now...not always, enso guidance is very unreliable for the following winter until the summer in general...but right now the ambiguous signal would favor a weak to moderate enso event next year if there is one at all in either direction. If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way. As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine. The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nina years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way. As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine. The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nino years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina. You meant to say nina, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The GFS op might be the weeniest run of the year, wave after wave west to east under us with 1040 high pressures to our north... and it highlights how the day 10 eastern ridge might not even be a problem. Yea there are higher heights in the east because of the -PNA but look at the blocking up top and the 50/50, nothing is cutting in that pattern and it leads to this...we will overcome a -PNA with that pattern up top. Actually with that pattern up top we WANT a -PNA or else it would be congrats Jacksonville. As for SE ridge, look at the h5 heights But look at the surface the same time This is why the snow means jump day 10-15 on the GEFS and EPS even though we are under a ridge. If that look up top is correct storms will be forced under us as there will be a parade of high pressure blocked across the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It could be, the failure of it to develop into a significant event this year increases the threat of a nino next year. So long as it's not a super nino that would be great. There are no signs right now of a super nino. USUALLY there are some hints of that by now...not always, enso guidance is very unreliable for the following winter until the summer in general...but right now the ambiguous signal would favor a weak to moderate enso event next year if there is one at all in either direction. If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way. As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine. The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nino years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina. I know people laugh at what I am going to say here next, but take my word on this that both HM and Isotherm use eruptions of volcanoes greater than VEI 3 in determining the NA pattern, as they effect blocking and the HL. I think we are going to see some effects of all the recent activity manifest itself somehow. Would love a HM post just on this element. He mentioned it not long ago comparing winters, I know he has brought this up several times in the past 2 or 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You meant to say nina, right? yes sorry will fix now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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