The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99.  
We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms. 

I had big depression after March 2001. About a month

That was a rough one for me too. I was recovering from a bad ski accident I suffered in January that year. Had to take a semester off from school for it and so I couldn’t plan a ski trip to cope which is my typical MO. Sucked to end an already sucky year that way. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-NAO at day 10 is exciting, it was previously stuck. -EPO is kind of a new development, -NAO and -EPO we haven't done together in a while.. it would probably give us a snowstorm. 

 Dry snow that lasts.. all of our snows have been gone in 1-3 days. 

I agree I was just giving you a hard time. 

[osfan24]

Please don't tell me we are doing the sun angle thing already. We've had light to moderate events in mid-to-late March accumulate easily. If it's cold enough and snowing hard enough, the sun angle is a non-issue.

[BristowWx]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Please don't tell me we are doing the sun angle thing already. We've had light to moderate events in mid-to-late March accumulate easily. If it's cold enough and snowing hard enough, the sun angle is a non-issue.

That come up Feb 1st like clock work.  It affects melting not accumulating.  It falls into the off run model category in the weenie book.  Mr. Kocin did not write this book nor endorse it. 

[Yeoman]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That come up Feb 1st like clock work.  It affects melting not accumulating.  It falls into the off run model category in the weenie book.  Mr. Kocin did not write this book nor endorse it. 

Denying reality is also on the first page of the weenie handbook. Look up higher sun angles and its impact on surface snow sublimation, which even happens while it's attempting to accumulate. Give me snow in Dec and Jan anytime over Feb and March

[smokeybandit]

So if you're feeling extra weenie, then the 18z FV3 is for you

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Please don't tell me we are doing the sun angle thing already. We've had light to moderate events in mid-to-late March accumulate easily. If it's cold enough and snowing hard enough, the sun angle is a non-issue.

Unfortunately the dumb angle guarantees we will have to talk about the sun angle every year!  

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So if you're feeling extra weenie, then the 18z FV3 is for you

Please hide the chilrens eyes first 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Denying reality is also on the first page of the weenie handbook. Look up higher sun angles and its impact on surface snow sublimation, which even happens while it's attempting to accumulate. Give me snow in Dec and Jan anytime over Feb and March

Don’t feed them 

[frd]

18 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So if you're feeling extra weenie, then the 18z FV3 is for you

If the FV3 were a street drug it be laced bad sh*t !   

IV s are optional but very expensive for the weenie punks out there  

[osfan24]

26 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Denying reality is also on the first page of the weenie handbook. Look up higher sun angles and its impact on surface snow sublimation, which even happens while it's attempting to accumulate. Give me snow in Dec and Jan anytime over Feb and March

No one is saying they wouldn't it rather happen during low sun angle season, but very rarely do we get big storms in December so it's not even really a convo worth having. I'd like a storm in early-to-mid January of course, but we can make February and even March work. The bigger issue is the melting afterward, not during the storm so long as it's cold and coming down at a good clip. See PD2.

[psuhoffman]

Got cold?

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

No one is saying they wouldn't it rather happen during low sun angle season, but very rarely do we get big storms in December so it's not even really a convo worth having. I'd like a storm in early-to-mid January of course, but we can make February and even March work. The bigger issue is the melting afterward, not during the storm so long as it's cold and coming down at a good clip. See PD2.

He is baiting you 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Got cold?

 

But sun angle.

[frd]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Got cold?

 

 

And, the beat for the -NAO grows louder. 

 

 

 

 

1. New conversation

   •  

     Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 2h2 hours ago

     Replying to @antmasiello

     If we get another monster -NAO in March I will hold you personally responsible

      
   •  

     Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 2h2 hours ago

     More

     last year seemed very clear to me. this year I don't really have a clue if this period of interest produces anything substantial enough to even affect March. I like that the CWB thing materialized after the Ural's block. So far, so good.

 

[weathercoins]

Let’s just lock in the FV3 solution exactly as “modeled” and call it a day 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Got cold?

Hmm.. it evolves from -PNA, doubt it would be nationwide like that. 

Nice -NAO on 18z GFS ensembles. Active STJ too. 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That was a rough one for me too. I was recovering from a bad ski accident I suffered in January that year. Had to take a semester off from school for it and so I couldn’t plan a ski trip to cope which is my typical MO. Sucked to end an already sucky year that way. 

What happened up your way in March 2001?  I remember back then my local meteorologist mentioning that modelling had been suggesting an impressive NAO block, but that it disappeared (imagine that). 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What happened up your way in March 2001?  I remember back then my local meteorologist mentioning that modelling had been suggesting an impressive NAO block, but that it disappeared (imagine that). 

If I may just mention this , that event I still cry over.

Was forecasted to get 18 to 22 inches of snow in Northern Delaware, and only got 1/2 inch. Worse busted forecast ever !!!!!!!  

Complex diving energy from Northern Canada and in the end only far New England got it I believe. 

GFS 12  days prior forecasted a 952 mb low over the benchmark , DT war WOOFING loudly. 

He called that the forecast that went badly the Pamela Anderson Bust

John Bolaris was on Philly channel 10 and was gung ho on the event , all the outlets  were, but he was tormented by angry folks stating his forecast was the worse ever.  He left the station after that I think. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, frd said:

If I may just mention this , that event I still cry over.

Was forecasted to get 18 to 22 inches of snow in Northern Delaware, and only got 1/2 inch. Worse busted forecast ever !!!!!!!  

Complex diving energy from Northern Canada and in the end only far New England got it I believe. 

GFS 12  days prior forecasted a 952 mb low over the benchmark , DT war WOOFING loudly. 

He called that the forecast that went badly the Pamela Anderson Bust

John Bolaris was on Philly channel 10 and was gung ho on the event , all the outlets  were, but he was tormented by angry folks stating his forecast was the worse ever.  He left the station after that I think. 

 

Bolaris had them scroll a warning across the bottom of TV screen throughout the day during the day prior. Iirc he was forecasting 2-3' here. We received less than 3/4". This was an epic bust because I believe it happened in under 24 hours possibly much less. I recall the euro 12z day prior coming in and nudging everything north. We all kind of shrugged it off as noise since all other guidance held steady and besides we thought such sudden and immense short term changes and shifts were impossible. When the 18z AVN and ETA came in warmer and 'norther' people thought again it was noise. When 0z came in unanimous with the bust just mere hours away it was a feeling I will NEVER EVER forget and would never wish that heartbreak on my worst enemy.

[Fozz]

March 2001 makes me glad I didn't start following the weather until 2002. I was 10 back then... I would've probably cried.

[yoda]

Also known as the storm that shall not be named.  I wasn't really on any weather boards yet, but i had already begun my trip down weather lane loving the weather and forecasting it.

I remember telling my classmates we would be out for a while and not to worry about doing homework for some time.  I was pretty good with my predictions along with one of my teachers, so everyone was going along with what we called for.

Remember waking up to green grass and sunny skies I believe the next morning... I felt so bad since there was a big history test the next day.  Got roasted at school by my friends and other students... took a while before I got believed again calling for big snow.  This was freshman year of high school.

[frd]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bolaris had them scroll a warning across the bottom of TV screen throughout the day during the day prior. Iirc he was forecasting 2-3' here. We received less than 3/4".

I recall like it was yesterday Paul Kocin the day prior on the Weather Channel reviewing the energy set to dive in and it was up near Northern Canada, I new much less then, my God 18 years ago,  where has time gone? 

Anyways, it dawned on me at that time all that was needed to get this huge storm going, after that mid day update from Paul things started to fall apart. 

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, Fozz said:

March 2001 makes me glad I didn't start following the weather until 2002. I was 10 back then... I would've probably cried.

Same man...that sounds really rough, lol I was the same age but don't quite remember this bust! (I do recall another perhaps I year prior that was supposed to happen on Saturday...but then I woke up to blue skies and the reporters saying "we dodged a bullet!" And I was like "NO!!" and was in a bad mood for the rest of the day, lol) 

Anybody else remember that one? (seems like it was around 2000!)

[Fozz]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same man...that sounds really rough, lol I was the same age but don't quite remember this bust! (I do recall another perhaps I year prior that was supposed to happen on Saturday...but then I woke up to blue skies and the reporters saying "we dodged a bullet!" And I was like "NO!!" and was in a bad mood for the rest of the day, lol) 

Anybody else remember that one? (seems like it was around 2000!)

Probably December 30, 2000. That one was a Miller B screwjob. 9" in Philly, 12" in NYC with some 20" totals north and west, but not a single flake in DC or Baltimore. The precip shield was very compact with a brutal cutoff.

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Probably December 30, 2000. That one was a Miller B screwjob. 9" in Philly, 12" in NYC with some 20" totals north and west, but not a single flake in DC or Baltimore. The precip shield was very compact with a brutal cutoff.

Yup. I remember they were calling for 12-18” on Friday afternoon and when i woke up Saturday morning it was sunny. It was painful. 

[Stormpc]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I recall like it was yesterday Paul Kocin the day prior on the Weather Channel reviewing the energy set to dive in and it was up near Northern Canada, I new much less then, my God 18 years ago,  where has time gone? 

Anyways, it dawned on me at that time all that was needed to get this huge storm going, after that mid day update from Paul things started to fall apart. 

Was it the 2000 or 2001 bust where Kocin was preaching the  loop de loop? Both were epic. I remember going outside Friday night at midnight and seeing a clear sky and full moon after only hours earlier it had clouded up (2000 storm).

[Ji]

Was it the 2000 or 2001 bust where Kocin was preaching the  loop de loop? Both were epic. I remember going outside Friday night at midnight and seeing a clear sky and full moon after only hours earlier it had clouded up (2000 storm).

That was 2001. After that storm...a month later...to make my depression worse...my company winstar folded and I lost my job

[Maestrobjwa]

58 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Probably December 30, 2000. That one was a Miller B screwjob. 9" in Philly, 12" in NYC with some 20" totals north and west, but not a single flake in DC or Baltimore. The precip shield was very compact with a brutal cutoff.

 

50 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Yup. I remember they were calling for 12-18” on Friday afternoon and when i woke up Saturday morning it was sunny. It was painful. 

Yep that's the one...lol What is it about late December snow that always seems to result in heartbreak? Lol Has a late, post-Christmas December storm ever worked out??

Oh and...is it fair to say: "Never trust Miller B's"...lol

[87storms]

i wasn't as disappointed in march 2001 as i thought i'd be.  this was before i knew about weather boards, but the fact that i was able to shoot hoops in shorts and a tshirt the day before was a yellow flag for me.  some of the worst busts were in the 80s/90s when they'd call for a winter storm watch or warning and you'd wake up to a non accumulating rain/snow mix lol.  i think it was before models were able to pick up on how much the appalachians destroy clippers and weak lows here.