The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

PD III

[tplbge]

Just now, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

HM, said KUish after the 15th the other day.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

And , you know this, but the more the MJO goes into a higher orbit the faster the pattern transition and such.  I would think then that the good phases you want a very high orbit and the warmer phases you want a lower orbit. 

If you think otherwise please let me know. 

Lastly, you can see today the slowing and road blocks being created that HM spoke about regarding NAO taking place.  in the EPS more and more.

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks ! 

psu you think that the EPS might trend even better ( 360 hours is Feb 21 st ) beyond this look here. 

It looks like it is moving towards the phase 8 MJO composite but is lacking I feel with the ridging out West. 

Then again that steroid Pac jet has been there all winter , the fast flow, etc.,  maybe all the changes taking place slow it, and it changes. 

 

 

 

Yes...but I also think that look day 10-15 is good. Day 10 starts with a lot of cold in place. The se ridge is muted. That blocking and 50/50 look suggests waves won’t cut. That’s a better overrunning wave setup.  I think the se ridge is likely skewed by some members that go crazy with it. Watch the eps continue to adjust that trough axis east some future runs. After that if we transition to a split flow with the pac jet undercutting that becomes a hecs look week 3-4 imo. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

EPS builds NAO blocking around Day 10 and it goes through the end of the run.  

Hasnt the EPS had a day 10 nao like all winter?

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Dont want to not believe it but are we still looking for epic patterns beyond day 10?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hasnt the EPS had a day 10 nao like all winter?

No. Day 15 and would degrade by day 10. This is going the other way. 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Yea, we'll see how many runs we can get with that look holding but oh man... what a nice d15 panel... woofy

[Ji]

sick off everything being 10-15 days out. We really need to score early next week.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont want to not believe it but are we still looking for epic patterns beyond day 10?

It's better than seeing vomit patterns beyond d10

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

I have my tin foil hat on and am positioned in an underground bunker with my ham radio at the ready!

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

 

complete w/ safety harness system that we all use when hunting.

[Ji]

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

Would you settle for MECS Feb 30th?

Some people are IMPOSSIBLE to please 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

complete w/ safety harness system that we all use when hunting.

Shame on you. That is something that can not be unseen. Going to have nightmares now. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont want to not believe it but are we still looking for epic patterns beyond day 10?

Maybe. I believe it. All year the mjo and soi have dumped on us. Last time I got pessimistic mid January it was because the soi and mjo had looked good day 10-15 and was going to crap again. Then the pattern started to degrade. This time the soi and mjo are trending better in the short range and the pattern is responding. 

But I took crap for debbing a couple weeks ago on late Jan and early February. I’m honestly fully on board with the potential Feb 20 to March 10...maybe longer. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

Well I mean technically...Day 10 does fall around President's Day, does it not? Lol (and certainly before the 20th!)

[Jandurin]

Presidents day is the last day Ji will accept a snowstorm.

[Amped]

30 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Would you settle for MECS Feb 30th?

Some people are IMPOSSIBLE to please 

Nah, we get one on February 30th every year.

[Fozz]

50 minutes ago, Ji said:

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.

It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Nice Day 10 pattern on the Euro though, -NAO, -EPO. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Nice Day 10 pattern on the Euro though, -NAO, -EPO. 

3 hours ago called to say it wants it’s news back. 

[Ji]

Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.
It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

Yes I like snow falling...and it sticking and accumulating. After over... I dont care what happens. But after feb 20...accumulations dont come as easy. Esp during day

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

36 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.
It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

Yes I like snow falling...and it sticking and accumulating. After over... I dont care what happens. But after feb 20...accumulations dont come as easy. Esp during day

If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

[Ji]

If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

37 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.
It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

Yes I like snow falling...and it sticking and accumulating. After over... I dont care what happens. But after feb 20...accumulations dont come as easy. Esp during day

Not as easy, no. Goes without saying. This is a generalization though and not necessarily representative of what we have seen in recent years. Remember St Patty's day event a few years ago?  Low 20s cold powder during the day. It literally could have been mid January the way that played out. Even the mid March storm last year with pretty marginal temps produced a very solid event. If we have a good set up, it can snow efficiently during the day, well into March.

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001

Feb 22, 2015 was a very good storm for both of us.... granted it was bitterly cold in the beginning, but the sun angle was not a problem at all. Early March has had some pretty good ones in recent years, but then there was also March 2001 and 2013. And up here, March 22 last year had no trouble sticking on the roads even during midday... ended up with 8.5" here, with over a foot to my north. So I think we're very much in the game for good storms after Feb 20 even if they aren't 1993 or March 1958.

[Ji]

Feb 22, 2015 was a very good storm for both of us.... granted it was bitterly cold in the beginning, but the sun angle was not a problem at all. Early March has had some pretty good ones in recent years, but then there was also March 2001 and 2013. And up here, March 22 last year had no trouble sticking on the roads even during midday... ended up with 8.5" here, with over a foot to my north. So I think we're very much in the game for good storms after Feb 20 even if they aren't 1993 or March 1958.

Forgot about that one lol...yes that was amazing. I think half melted after midnight lol...but it was a great event. Heavy snow

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

16 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001

I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99.  

We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms. 

[Ji]

I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99.  
We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms. 

I had big depression after March 2001. About a month