snowmagnet Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 We all know the Euro is a fail, and it could happen that way. And we don’t need another deluge, even if it starts frozen. But I don’t think we should get tied to any scenarios until at least Thursday or Friday (as Bob mentioned). It’s the typical 2 steps forward 1 step back. GEFS was a great run, but the Euro said no, as generally happens around this time. We can always hope for a nice clean event for a PD3 if we can indeed score blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Wait, aren’t we supposed to not talk details (amounts and who mixes who doesn't) at 5-6 day leads? This place is confusing at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ji said: that snowmap dosent make sense. There is 12 hours of snow on the euro for Loudoun Isn't this just a six hour map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Wait, aren’t we supposed to not talk details (amounts and who mixes who doesn't) at 5-6 day leads? This place is confusing at times. I think when it’s the Euro it’s a sharper wound. If the JMA said no it would an lol moment and move on. Euro no’s are death blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 It's still 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 New thread for next weeks storm chance. This thread will still be the NAO/soi/EPO/PNA/MJO extravaganza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. 6 or 7 days is still too far out to expect clarity with the models imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: 6 or 7 days is still too far out to expect clarity with the models imho. Except when they all generally agree or are moving towards a cruddier scenario. We (most of us) were resigned to the fact this was not going to be a clean snow event so theres that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Ji Dude...wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. Hmm, following the lead of the CFS maybe. EPS will be telling. Regardless, expect big time improvements to show themselves very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dude...wrong thread. Sorry missed the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 32 minutes ago, Fozz said: "meh" is all I'll say to a little snow changing over to a big driving rainstorm. Kinda sucks, but I suppose it's better than nothing. don't worry it has another cutter rainstorm a couple days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: don't worry it has another cutter rainstorm a couple days later Its all prelude to the epic pattern coming in 10-15 days. This time it's for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its all prelude to the epic pattern coming in 10-15 days. This time it's for real. You are probably kidding but I am not...if these day 10 looks are even remotely close than an epic pattern is coming day 10+. crashing soi I will take that look day 10 and roll with it So the op euro is an example of how next week could fail...and I kind of think that's how it "might" go down but I am confident we will have more chances and better ones after. NOT saying next week will fail... but if it does I think a better pattern is on the way with the trough axis shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 EPS looks supportive of rain for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'd be exponentially happier with that compared to all rain. Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me. I suck at analogies...sorry. Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year. Maybe more than one. Just not sure this is going to be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 @psuhoffman That's a great look....probably some -20's coming. If the ops are correct we should start seeing the SOI tumble in about 3-4 days. Maybe this fails us also but we have yet to see a legit crash this season...Something new and improved is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously Very reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me. I suck at analogies...sorry. Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year. Maybe more than one. Just not this is going to be one of them. I think it will be more than one for your area easily. Next week has a much better chance to work for you. You might be down by 14 but your team is much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: "meh" is all I'll say to a little snow changing over to a big driving rainstorm. Kinda sucks, but I suppose it's better than nothing. i'm in the "not too interested in that" camp as well, but on the bright side, it does provide a glimmer of hope that the transition to mix/rain gets delayed. if it starts as rain, that ain't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 51 minutes ago, frd said: Hmm, following the lead of the CFS maybe. EPS will be telling. Regardless, expect big time improvements to show themselves very soon. Cfs got even better today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Cfs got even better today lol Is the EPS out yet ? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, frd said: Is the EPS out yet ? Thx EPS builds NAO blocking around Day 10 and it goes through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 Eps snow actually went up but mostly in long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Is the EPS out yet ? Thx Yes...game on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Eps snow actually went up but mostly in long range Not ready to give up on early next week...inner weenie won’t allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Eps snow actually went up but mostly in long range Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range. Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look. Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: End of run. Thanks ! 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yes...game on!!! psu you think that the EPS might trend even better ( 360 hours is Feb 21 st ) beyond this look here. It looks like it is moving towards the phase 8 MJO composite but is lacking I feel with the ridging out West. Then again that steroid Pac jet has been there all winter , the fast flow, etc., maybe all the changes taking place slow it, and it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range. Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look. Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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