yoda Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Anyone have the gfs para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, yoda said: interesting spread of the highest totals. that high must be really pushing the dry air. to the NE. NYC crew will shed a tear at that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 If you happen to have the detailed maps, is the lack of snow in Charlottesville a surface temp issue or is it an ice rink down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: That works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone have the gfs para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: My house is in dark purple is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If you happen to have the detailed maps, is the lack of snow in Charlottesville a surface temp issue or is it an ice rink down here? Probably ice rink as 850 0c line is to your north just a tad... but temps are on the upper 20s to around 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: I suppose that is acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I thought people said FV3 was a big hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably ice rink as 850 0c line is to your north just a tad... but temps are on the upper 20s to around 30 I'm guessing that means maybe a bit more snow for EZF but an ice rink as well on the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I thought people said FV3 was a big hit? People = Ji in fairness it looked like it was going to be a big hit, then it bombed and cut the low inland right over DC and flipped to rain. It reminded me a little of the early march storm in 1994 that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 There's still a good amount of precip coming on the UKIE... but by 144 we are losing the 850s and temps are upper 20s to lower 30s. Some have changed to wintry mix at 144 while northern areas are still all snow. Hope that the low at 144 is going to transfer... it's in eastern KY at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought people said FV3 was a big hit? It is on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought people said FV3 was a big hit? Watch the Euro start to change personalities soon. Interesting opening acts so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought people said FV3 was a big hit? Yeah there’s no wiggle room there for the metros but I guess no sense in getting into detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: It is on TT Way better than brother GFS but still a boatload of rain for most of us after a thump of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On paper it looks good, lowest anomaly in N. Hemisphere is south of New Foundland, -EPO, active STJ near California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This is about the time the Euro loses it to come back to life again in a day or two. Seems to be the trend this winter with our threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 GEFS is a straight weenie of all weenie runs. Start to finish... Bob hit on the improvements day 5 but in the long range it shifts the EPO ridge into NW Canada (where we want it) and has one of the stronger 50/50 signals you will ever see past 10 days. Just enough nao ridging. Again our number 1 correlation to big snowstorms is the lower heights in the 50/50 space. That is an even bigger correlation to big snow here than the NAO or AO or EPO. Actually, the whole reason we want a -NAO is to get the 50/50 since typically a ridge over greenland will promote getting systems stuck under it in the 50/50 space. But the 50/50 is the actual feature we really want to get a big snowstorm. This is a straight great look...and it gets good well before this too. Guidance responding to tropical forcing maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 some big hits in the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: some big hits in the gefs That's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: some big hits in the gefs Oh the things I would do for e11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: That's weird. don't worry the pattern between the patterns says nina. Sun is hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 @psuhoffman GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, yoda said: There's still a good amount of precip coming on the UKIE... but by 144 we are losing the 850s and temps are upper 20s to lower 30s. Some have changed to wintry mix at 144 while northern areas are still all snow. Hope that the low at 144 is going to transfer... it's in eastern KY at 144 I was wondering when I saw snow maps. I was thinking there was at least a few more panels to share. Just happy to see nothing is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Here's a visual of what I just posted. Quite a few members have 3 separate events over 16 days. LOVE seeing that. I'd say the odds of us getting another accum event in the next 2 weeks are above 50/50 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. That is what I am expecting. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. I loved everything about the GEFS run, start to finish. There is almost no way everything day 5-16 will be snow, if it is we will end up with 50". But if we can get the boundary south enough that just 1/3 of it is snow...and enough of the rest is ice/mix to keep some on the ground...I will call that a win. I know its further out there but the look day 10-16 is really getting my attention. The epo shifting east along with that 50/50 look...yesterday we agreed all we need is SOME nao help to shift that into a great pattern and today there are signs we might get exactly that. I know its way out there in range the guidance has sucked BUT this time the tropical forcing supports such a look and guidance is starting to shift towards that and not away from it so maybe it has some legitimacy this time. As for your son, congrats, that is great! He is well on his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's a visual of what I just posted. Quite a few members have 3 separate events over 16 days. LOVE seeing that. I'd say the odds of us getting another accum event in the next 2 weeks are above 50/50 for sure. snowstorm54324320947321097439 messaged me to say e8 is the most accurate gefs member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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