poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: No worries, FV3 is up next and always good for snow weenies. You nailed it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: You nailed it..... Looks good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 CMC shows the volatility in modeling right now. This thing is far from nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 The GFS is simply lost. I would not worry too much at this time with the goofy GFS. Yes, its possible it goes down like this, but I doubt it. Also, I concur with psu this may never really be our event anyway. Even if we were in the sweet spot getting all snow 24 hours before the event starts it could still go poof like back in 1994. I like the time period after the 15th better. But, with all things weather, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Biggest takeaway after looking at the GFS. Everything is far from settled. GFS has no idea how to handle the 500's and especially the NS. Until it gets a handle on that any one solution is as good as the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3 looks like a monstrous hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Bird in hand and all, let’s keep some focus on that first wave for Monday. Looks better on both gfs and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: You nailed it..... Verbatim it's a M/HECS....Probably turn to mix/rain in our area but not before a massive thump. Not because it's cutting. Too amped/too tucked coastal. ETA: Dont know how I responded to my own post? @Chris78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Do we know why DC is always 25 miles too north in this scenario? Because with this pattern (-epo -pna se ridge, cold high on top) the trough axis is way west of us. It can work if a healthy system ejects into the high. Unfortunately what happens more often is most of the energy hangs back with the main trough in the west, whatever weak energy ejects slides east under the high and can’t gain any latitude so stays south of us...(if the cold wasn’t pressing south of us we wouldn’t even be seeing this as a threat window) and then the main energy comes out once the confluence relaxes allowing it to amplify to our west. This is how this setup usually goes. Not always. It can work. But this is the typical fail look on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You were right. I was on your side. When did some on this board lose their sense of humor? I know Snow is serious business but if we can't have a little fun while were at it why bother tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Any wave 1? It's hopscotch right over us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Because with this pattern (-epo -pna se ridge, cold high on top) the trough axis is way west of us. It can work if a healthy system ejects into the high. Unfortunately what happens more often is most of the energy hangs back with the main trough in the west, whatever weak energy ejects slides east under the high and can’t gain any latitude so stays south of us...(if the cold wasn’t pressing south of us we wouldn’t even be seeing this as a threat window) and then the main energy comes out once the confluence relaxes allowing it to amplify to our west. This is how this setup usually goes. So in the previous runs that worked...the two pieces of energy came together into a healthier system and then "eject" into the high? (Pardon me if I misunderstood ya) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Bird in hand and all, let’s keep some focus on that first wave for Monday. Looks better on both gfs and GGEM. Absolutely. IMO w/ MJO progressing to better phases, I'd think OP's are likely in catch up mode no matter how good or bad they look. I'm not picking sides in who's right and who's wrong. Its a model discussion thread, so tell it like you see it (or wanna see it ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Verbatim it's a M/HECS....Probably turn to mix/rain in our area but not before a massive thump. Not because it's cutting. Too amped/too tucked coastal. ETA: Dont know how I responded to my own post? @Chris78 First Leesburg is talking to himself and now you are? Guess people are starting to crack under the pressure. Where's the Reaper when you need him, he needs to start cleaning out the weak among us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: First Leesburg is talking to himself and now you are? Guess people are starting to crack under the pressure. Where's the Reaper when you need him, he needs to start cleaning out the weak among us. Meh...I've been known to talk to myself about the weather...especially durning model runs. Just ask my wife. Nobody else in this house give a sh*t if it snows...I'm the only oddball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: First Leesburg is talking to himself and now you are? Guess people are starting to crack under the pressure. Where's the Reaper when you need him, he needs to start cleaning out the weak among us Maybe low blood sugar. I felt better this morning after I had some coffee cake, love cinnamon ! opps back to the weather ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: FV3 looks like a monstrous hit lol A stronger lead wave will also promote the high hanging back to the north due to the return flow it creates and it lowers heights enough along the coast to help pull the second system in. Not enough lead wave and the second system is stronger with no height fall in the east to pull it towards and so it’s more likely to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Notable observastion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Meh...I've been known to talk to myself about the weather...especially durning model runs. Just ask my wife. Nobody else in this house give a sh*t if it snows...I'm the only oddball! You are in far better company than you realize buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: When did some on this board lose their sense of humor? I know Snow is serious business but if we can't have a little fun while were at it why bother tracking? Lol I was on his side wrt his fears. I wasn’t implying I was against you. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A stronger lead wave will also promote the high hanging back to the north due to the return flow it creates and it lowers heights enough along the coast to help pull the second system in. Not enough lead wave and the second system is stronger with no height fall in the east to pull it towards and so it’s more likely to cut. The tendency this year has been generally stronger than anticipated. There is no massive confluence that would argue for that first system to shred so my guess is it ends up decently strong. That event is almost certainly rain for you guys and would probably be a NYC-BOS snow ecent. That though enables DCA/BWI to get hit by the 2nd system which is likely to be much more significant anyway. As I said earlier it’s 2/8-11 1994 exactly. That first wave ended up much stronger than expected 3-4 days out. The AVN and Euro thought the 2/11 event would be all rain and a massive cutter because it underplayed the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not declaring anything dead. But I’ve also never jumped on this because these epo se ridge gradient type patterns shift north 75% of the time. We can snow that way but more often it ends up breaking our hearts. I’m just playing the odds. I'm not getting invested in anything until the short range unless a real block builds. We've been dealing with mostly progressive flow for years now. Being in or out of the game at D5 hasn't really told us much with any close call storm. Always comes down to the final 72 hours. If everything goes to hell before that and then holds we can write it off outside of 72 hours. We've seen that. However, things can still look really dicey at 72 hours and we trend into a final (successful) solution. This is where my head is at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: You are in far better company than you realize buddy. Ha! No doubt...That's the only reason i hang out in this godforsaken place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So in the previous runs that worked...the two pieces of energy came together into a healthier system and then "eject" into the high? (Pardon me if I misunderstood ya) There are multiple ways to work. The easiest is more energy sooner. Even if the lead wave fails you want it to lower heights to our southeast as much as possible to create a weakness for the next wave to be drawn towards. Additionally it limits the energy held back that could over amp the second wave to our west. The trough axis is not good so we don’t want something going nuts out west. More energy early is better because the cold is in place with confluence. The longer something waits to get organized the more chance it departs. If too much energy holds back it likely cuts. A nice even split and we could end up with the fv3 coastal bomb idea. The way you get that is enough wave 1 to lower heights and promote high pressure hanging back over the top then the second wave phases into that weakness along the coast under the high. There are a lot of moving parts but the worst case scenario is too much energy holding back too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not getting invested in anything until the short range unless a real block builds. We've been dealing with mostly progressive flow for years now. Being in or out of the game at D5 hasn't really told us much with any close call storm. Always comes down to the final 72 hours. If everything goes to hell before that and then holds we can write it off outside of 72 hours. We've seen that. However, things can still look really dicey at 72 hours and we trend into a final (successful) solution. This is where my head is at. Sounds right...I’m just keeping my expectations low so as not to get let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs Looks like a colder look overall thru 120 lookin at individual members Yea man, gefs looks really good. Mixed outcomes with both waves but a really nice run through d8. Starting to feel like we're going to get at least some snow out of the busy flow. Hopefully by Friday things will congeal enough so the discussion turns towards how much instead of snow or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 By far the best d5 GEFS spread I've seen since the Jan storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Dang, some respectable hits in the GEFS for Monday. Let’s do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie looks more progressive and probably better for us . 144 looks decent with possible transfer . 1008 low in Kentucky with hints of transfer at 144 Anyone with ukmet surface ? Through 144 it's a very nice hit. Good CAD being shown. Start to lose 850s at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Through 144 it's a very nice hit. Good CAD being shown. Start to lose 850s at 144 That’s what I was hoping Pappa G would look like So now fv3 Ukie and gefs look decent. Good enough for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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