Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Usually a good sign when the northerners start getting nervous before a period of activity. I'm considered a northerner I suppose but believe me my concern is not suppression in the least my Southern friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 that was some fast quoting btw guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: FWIW Pappa G looks better at 108 in both 500's and surface. Hunch says we may like the next couple panels. Not sure I agree....energy is taking it's time moving out of the west this run. Let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 And by hr 138 we are seeing again some fairly significant changes at 500's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Ehh. The front piece is further disconnected from the second wave at 141. Looks to mostly miss south. Slower with the second as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 We should start a thread to separate this threat from the LR (mid Feb beyond) stuff. Would be easier to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Ehh. The front piece is further disconnected from the second wave at 141. Looks to mostly miss south. Slower with the second as well. yeah, I see that. Still at distance, its not far from something decent. Not going to fret this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 People in here like to report the "news" before they actually get the full story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 It’s early but this run looks too close to my nightmare fail scenario I outlined earlier this morning. A weak lead wave with a delayed stronger second ejection is playing with fire in this setup imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I don’t like how it looks at 144 at all. Weak pos lead wave. Way too much ridging developing in front of the main wave holding back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Ha wave 1 escapes south wave 2 a cutter. One of the fears we mentioned earlier. Cave to the 0z euro already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don’t like how it looks at 144 at all. Yep epic fail scenario this run. So euro icon GFS and GGEM fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Geez HP flying out like there's a sale at the dollar store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ha wave 1 escapes south wave 2 a cutter. One of the fears we mentioned earlier. Cave to the 0z euro already? I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. Oh I know man this us the most usual and often way we fail in these setups so I cant say a move to it wasnt expected. Now we gotta hope the Sunday night event the GGEM is strongest on verifies because if the GFS OP is close we are back to 60s middle of next week. Fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 Do we know why DC is always 25 miles too north in this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Holy hell GFS is an epic fail for everyone! Rain all the way up into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Least surprising thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Geez HP flying out like there's a sale at the dollar store. lol Worse than icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s early but this run looks too close to my nightmare fail scenario I outlined earlier this morning. A weak lead wave with a delayed stronger second ejection is playing with fire in this setup imo. Being an op run in way out there range, discussing "details" has to be done knowing the perils of doing so at this range. IMO 500's (and surface to me) looked better early on and I hoped surface further on would reflect. It didnt. Oh well, 6 hrs and the ol man will get another stab at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS op has shown several systems like this throughout it's runs. A weaker wave ejects south of us while a cutter forms on its heels. A little odd but not completely unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, Ji said: that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps At D5+ we have plenty of time to lose a good solution (today), shift back so a sick solution (next couple days), and then lose it all again in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Holy hell GFS is an epic fail for everyone! Rain all the way up into Canada. That area just south of Hudson Bay gets destroyed with back to back snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps You were right. I was on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Worse than icon Well we still have that epic look coming in 2 weeks so theres that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 No worries, FV3 is up next and always good for snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 A strong cutter may alter things going forward...Maybe it will lay the groundwork for a D10+ HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At D5+ we have plenty of time to lose a good solution (today), shift back so a sick solution (next couple days), and then lose it all again in the short range. I’m not declaring anything dead. But I’ve also never jumped on this because these epo se ridge gradient type patterns shift north 75% of the time. We can snow that way but more often it ends up breaking our hearts. I’m just playing the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps Celebrating? Really? LOL. I was pocking fun at you Ji. Or do I have to work harder at making it obvious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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