jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Everyone gets snow except DC on this run. Pretty weird. Still shows a storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ha doesnt want to transfer to the coast. Seems bogus given the stronger HP and upper ridging out ahead of the primary. Certainly possible tho not likely imo. Decent signal there for strong CAD more than last run. It got pretty lost there on where to focus energy. Split some off and let a primary go to Cleveland then transfer off VA. Crazy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Garbage or as DT would say "bullsh!t". A blocking ridge NE of the surface low and it just drives straight into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Everyone gets snow except DC on this run. Pretty weird. Still shows a storm though. Typical for a miller B. Eventually makes the transfer but too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3 looks to be a pretty big hit through 177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Huh...How accurate do you think the strength/placement of the HP can be modeled from this range? (As opposed to trying to model the lows, lol) I'd imagine if the HP is anywhere near that strength, rain would definitely not be a concern, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 CMC has the HP much weaker and we get all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: FV3 looks to be a pretty big hit through 177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Looks right. That's how I know it's a weird run. Phl-Bos SECS/MECS while DC gets an inch? Not this winter. Reverse it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Negnao said: Still have more to go with this look Edit: it’s moves north of us but a good run nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 At this point the thought process should probably be: Is there a storm? Is there a CAD signal? Is there a high pressure to hold the CAD? Beyond that it’s a fruitless and pointless exercise to look at precip/snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point the thought process should probably be: Is there a storm? Is there a CAD signal? Is there a high pressure to hold the CAD? Beyond that it’s a fruitless and pointless exercise to look at precip/snow totals. You’re right of course but us weenies can’t help but look for the pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 00z EURO is basically an i66 and north hit... 4 to 8 inches. Super extreme cutoff on southern side though as seen on the snowfall map below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 00z EURO is basically an i66 and north hit... 4 to 8 inches. Super extreme cutoff on southern side though as seen on the snowfall map below Not a good run....terrible trend. Hopefully a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 For those that are curious we saw a 1/4 to an 1/2 inch increase on the EPS snowfall means for the day 6/7 storm through the general DC/Balt corridor and north (DC 1", Balt 1 1/2", PA line 2"). Looking over the individual members the snow distribution suggests this snow is derived from gradient/over running snows with very little indication of snows from a coastal. So naturally the snow favors those to the north. At this point the majority of the members as well as the means suggest that any appreciable snow (1+") would probably favor DC and north. There are only two decent hits in the mix for the cities (6+"). As far as the whole 15 days we see a roughly 1/2" increase region wide (DC 3", Balt 3 1/2", Pa line 4 1/2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 After looking over the over night runs all I can say is don't get too invested in any one solution for at least the next day or two. There are many things in play at this point and the models are in disagreement with each other on some of the key features as well as in disagreement with themselves quite often from run to run. About the only thing we know at this point is that there is a high probability of a storm running somewhere to our west and that the models also see a weakness generally around OBX or slightly north where a secondary will probably begin to develop. Now how that all plays out at this point is anyone's guess. So for now all options are still on the table IMO, from anywhere to a minor overrunning snow and quick flip to rain, to a hammering from over running, to over running morphing into a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 06Z GFS is out and it has a nice overrunning event for DC/Balt. We see warning criteria snow for the cities N and W. And to prove my point from the above post we are seeing the primary running 200-300 miles farther to the west vs. the 00Z with also a slower solution on the developing coastal. We are also seeing some significant changes at 500's once again, which I think will have the ultimate say on how this all evolves. So until the models can get a handle on the 500's we are going to see a lot of waffling by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just a quick mention but a few days ago I was talking about a window I thought the models may be hinting at for the possibility of a coastal. That window is still there and I think that the models are still seeing that possibility. So keep an eye out for shortly after our day 6/7 storm departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z GFS is out and it has a nice overrunning event for DC/Balt. We see warning criteria snow for the cities N and W. And to prove my point from the above post we are seeing the primary running 200-300 miles farther to the west vs. the 00Z with also a slower solution on the developing coastal. We are also seeing some significant changes at 500's once again, which I think will have the ultimate say on how this all evolves. So until the models can get a handle on the 500's we are going to see a lot of waffling by the models. It's going to take just what you said as models have a lot of pieces to get right at H5 with an ultimate translation to the surface. Pressure differences in the various low and high pressures will make all the difference since this setup will be highly contingent on the 850mb wind field with south to southwesterly LLJ, 700mb moisture transport and the low level cold air regime on the front side of the surface ridge to the north. This is pretty standard for these types of events, and could be until this weekend when the full picture comes into light. Best course of action is to use ensemble guidance and monitor the differences in the upper levels on the OP's. More than likely, well see multiple different end results over the coming days, so best not to get too caught up in each individual run.......unless you're Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 this is a huge problem...we cant have this be a wednesday storm. It needs to be snowing Tuesday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this is a huge problem...we cant have this be a wednesday storm. It needs to be snowing Tuesday at 12z. JI, only you would have a problem with this outcome. You are most definitely an enigma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: JI, only you would have a problem with this outcome. You are most definitely an enigma. I thought I could see how the CAD lines up along 95 right on the fall line. Yet some how VA/NC border is epic. Complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: this is a huge problem...we cant have this be a wednesday storm. It needs to be snowing Tuesday at 12z. The two biggest fail scenarios are a full phase and the whole thing bombs up to our west (very unlikely) or the energy ejects in 2 pieces and the first runs out ahead of the upper level support and gets suppressed. The next holds back until the high departs and goes to our north. Imo that’s the worst fail option here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Mentioned yesterday how I would like this to play out for the best results and the FV3 GFS delivers. Run that primary up just west of the Appalachians with a secondary development around OBX. The short distance between the primary and the secondary means a much quicker transfer to the developing low where it becomes the dominate feature in time to throw CCB back through the region. Have it play out this way and we benefit both from over running and the CCD from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This has heartbreak written all over it for a portion of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: JI, only you would have a problem with this outcome. You are most definitely an enigma. It didn’t do it this run but he is right that we don’t want the main feature holding back like that. We have better chances if more comes out sooner. Even a full ejection can work if it’s early. But if weak waves peel off and go to our south then the main energy comes across wed/Thursday that opens the door to being stuck in between. I think there was a storm like that in a similar setup in 2012. South of us got 4-8” from a front runner, our area got skunked, then north of us got 6-12 from the cutter. There was another similar one a few years ago in feb 2016 I think. DC got some but south 6-10 from wave 1 then wave 2 was central PA north. I was totally skunked. That’s the fail path here so I agree with Ji I don’t like any run that ejects a weak wave Tuesday then holds back the main wave to Wednesday. That progression can go sideways for us quick. I want to see it all come out Tuesday or at least most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 @showmethesnow one last thing not to like about the split wave idea...even if we get hit by wave one if it holds too much energy back it can cut something right behind it. It would be kinda bittersweet if we get 4-8” then it’s pouring rain and washes away 12 hours later. The more it holds back the more threat it ends as a rainstorm. Personally I find it hard to be happy with a storm if it ends with bare grass. Let me be clear I am not predicting that now. So save the deb posts. But I’m pointing out how I could see a fail here. I can also see a win if the high holds, or the energy ejects faster. I wish my fail scenarios didn’t happen so often though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I know this will bug @mappyno end but I will take the FV3 GFS. Take it and run. Throws up another system over the weekend following our day 6/7 storm which is almost an exact copy. Only in this case it is a colder version and it hammers the region. Not only that it looks as if it is setting up yet another run for our region at 330 hr. It's a machine at delivering the good. Yep, take it and run I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I know this will bug @mappyno end but I will take the FV3 GFS. Take it and run. Throws up another system over the weekend following our day 6/7 storm which is almost an exact copy. Only in this case it is a colder version and it hammers the region. Not only that it looks as if it is setting up yet another run for our region at 330 hr. It's a machine at delivering the good. Yep, take it and run I would. The follow up storm is sweet. What a weenie model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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