BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 CPC goes AN 8-14. Interesting. Time to adjust or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 The FV3 18z reminds me of a poor man's VDay 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs has had that look for about 6 runs now but no one cared lol. But it’s finally picking up on the mjo/soi imo. Oddly the euro picked up on it first but seems to lose it in the long range and the gefs day 15 looks more like you would expect. If even half the NAO blocking the gefs thinks is real it would adjust the eps into a damn good pattern like Bob said earlier. I am cautious about the day 6-7 storm. It’s a tricky setup. Doesn’t mean it has no chance, I’m interested but not confident yet. But I’m bullish after that we see more good chances this winter. In my defense, I was away snowmobiling for a few days so i checked out for a bit for a needed break from the meteo madness. I like many have become rather skeptical of many looks as in truth, my judgement and perspective has been rattled enough to just take the sit back and watch kinda approach until some kind of consistency/consensus started to materialize. I also only know enough to be a little more than moderately dangerous, so that makes it majorly confusing. I really like the split flow looks we've been seeing out west and if we can get some blocking, it really could give us some great chances at cleaner snow. IMO it really is showing up at the perfect time, as climo gives us the largest margin of error in the next 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Now that’s a signal you don’t see very often lol I’m sure the sun angle brigade will be along soon to put a wet blanket on that with “but any snow will melt the next day” thats actually really funny.... or is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman What makes the Jan storm so interesting is it was weakening the whole time it was tracking towards us. By the time the shortwave crossed overhead it almost wasn't a shortwave at all. Lol. The upper level support was a ghost of leftovers but the placement of the remaining lift was ideal for my area and southward into nova. Since the storm was pretty damn strong in the midwest, all the leftovers still had enough oomph to give us a pretty substantial storm. In some ways the progression was backwards of what usually creates a big storm for our area. Anyways, enough talk about the past... I liked the future before I took a break from posting. Future looks even better now. If we go on a heater this month then I have no problem giving this winter an A grade. Has never been conventional or predictable but for some reason it keeps wanting to snow in my yard when it counts. Hopefully your yard gets plastered soon too. but.... I'm north of the MD line..... awwww....see you DO have a soft side. All good man. You root on your back yard, and I'll root on mine. Fun searchin all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: but.... I'm north of the MD line..... awwww....see you DO have a soft side. All good man. You root on your back yard, and I'll root on mine. Fun searchin all the same. My post wasn't directed at any regular poster here. This year has had an unusually large influx of posters from regions that don't share much if anything in common with our climo. A good number of them add practically zero value and lack good analysis skills. For the record, I hope your yard gets destroyed as long as my yard get 1" more than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 54 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I would hope by this point it goes without saying. They will still say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My post wasn't directed at any regular poster here. This year has had an unusually large influx of posters from regions that don't share much if anything in common with our climo. A good number of them add practically zero value and lack good analysis skills. For the record, I hope your yard gets destroyed as long as my yard get 1" more than you. What’s up with that anyways? Even though I am in MD I realize I’m on the edge of this sub and my elevation combined with my latitude gives me a different climo. I try to keep my posts DC/Baltimore centered as much as possible. I like the discussion and analysis and there aren’t enough people here to have the same thing. I do pop into the PA sub sometimes but our sub has more posts in 20 mins than they do all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Sun angle 'issues' neutralized. Dense ice bergs stick around even well into Feb, and March. I've had accumulating snows after April 5 during the day on 3 or 4 occasions in my life. Only thing the sun angle argument is good for is the following day when the sun is out. Yes it melts faster. No you're not going to have glaciers stick around. But the whole sun angle thing is overplayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My post wasn't directed at any regular poster here. This year has had an unusually large influx of posters from regions that don't share much if anything in common with our climo. A good number of them add practically zero value and lack good analysis skills. For the record, I hope your yard gets destroyed as long as my yard get 1" more than you. lol. I'm down w/ that. I know where you were going w/ it. Just having some fun since Pappa G snowed on us for next Tues and lightened the mood a bit. While there have been some less than stellar posters that have dropped in, I personally think its pretty cool when some of good ones popped in and were chattin it up with "us" during the last few weeks. I'm here to listen, learn, discuss, and share ideas and will listen to good analysis, no matter who is typing. This year has brought many to their knees, and its nice to know were not alone in our frustration. Ya know, misery loves company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s up with that anyways? Even though I am in MD I realize I’m on the edge of this sub and my elevation combined with my latitude gives me a different climo. I try to keep my posts DC/Baltimore centered as much as possible. I like the discussion and analysis and there aren’t enough people here to have the same thing. I do pop into the PA sub sometimes but our sub has more posts in 20 mins than they do all day. I post in both and obviously live N and W of philly. However I rarely ever (if at all) go into imby mode while posting here. I come here to post thoughts, analysis, and general musings of the pattern and threats. Heck I even found myself tracking threats for this region where I knew mine didnt even stand a chance and then rooting you guys on. But yeah there is more discussion here for sure. My home forum is better than it was a few years ago....getting more active slowly but surely. I appreciate this subforum and all the regular posters here that allow those of us to post here that are considered 'outsiders'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s up with that anyways? Even though I am in MD I realize I’m on the edge of this sub and my elevation combined with my latitude gives me a different climo. I try to keep my posts DC/Baltimore centered as much as possible. I like the discussion and analysis and there aren’t enough people here to have the same thing. I do pop into the PA sub sometimes but our sub has more posts in 20 mins than they do all day. And thats why I'm here. Like it or not, we are close enough to share similar outcomes on a good portion of storms. That plus there is a really nice core of good posters here (yeah...even that JI guy knows his stuff...dont tell him i said that though). My home sub has a fun group, but the same handful of us chat it up when we're in NON storm mode. I've learned lots in here and the analysis is well delivered and received. ok, back to snow chat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I've had accumulating snows after April 5 during the day on 3 or 4 occasions in my life. Only thing the sun angle argument is good for is the following day when the sun is out. Yes it melts faster. No you're not going to have glaciers stick around. But the whole sun angle thing is overplayed. It snows in Colorado through May and they have the same sun angle as we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I've had accumulating snows after April 5 during the day on 3 or 4 occasions in my life. Only thing the sun angle argument is good for is the following day when the sun is out. Yes it melts faster. No you're not going to have glaciers stick around. But the whole sun angle thing is overplayed. It snows and sticks in Colorado in May and they have the same sun angle we do. A-basin got 30” on July 4th one year. Yea their elevation helps with temperatures but that has nothing to do with the sun angle. It’s the dumbest argument ever. If it’s cold enough and snowing hard enough it will stick any time of year. It’s obviously harder here at our elevation to get cold enough the later you go into Spring but still...the bigger problem is temps not sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It snows and sticks in Colorado in May and they have the same sun angle we do. A-basin got 30” on July 4th one year. Yea their elevation helps with temperatures but that has nothing to do with the sun angle. It’s the dumbest argument ever. If it’s cold enough and snowing hard enough it will stick any time of year. It’s obviously harder here at our elevation to get cold enough the later you go into Spring but still...the bigger problem is temps not sun angle. Jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, peribonca said: It snows in Colorado through May and they have the same sun angle as we do Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 We need to get into nam range. 9pm to 10pm is super boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We need to get into nam range. 9pm to 10pm is super boring Just extrapolate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s up with that anyways? Even though I am in MD I realize I’m on the edge of this sub and my elevation combined with my latitude gives me a different climo. I try to keep my posts DC/Baltimore centered as much as possible. I like the discussion and analysis and there aren’t enough people here to have the same thing. I do pop into the PA sub sometimes but our sub has more posts in 20 mins than they do all day. To put it simply you guys have more and better analysis than my home forum. I don't know what it is, but there is a real concentration of snow weenies in DC/Baltimore and environs. Also, while our climatologies are vastly different, a lot of the large scale pattern drivers which impact you are the same for me. Obviously, I need more suppression. Also the opportunity to lurk has allowed me to learn a lot. Hopefully I am not annoying anyone by being here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just extrapolate it That's what the DGEX was for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I post in both and obviously live N and W of philly. However I rarely ever (if at all) go into imby mode while posting here. I come here to post thoughts, analysis, and general musings of the pattern and threats. Heck I even found myself tracking threats for this region where I knew mine didnt even stand a chance and then rooting you guys on. But yeah there is more discussion here for sure. My home forum is better than it was a few years ago....getting more active slowly but surely. I appreciate this subforum and all the regular posters here that allow those of us to post here that are considered 'outsiders'. Southern PA is similar climatology to much of our forum. The southern VA posters have a more distant climatology than southern PA. Not sure what the fuss is all about. Philly has very similar annual snowfall, temps, and precip to IAD and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, Negnao said: Southern PA is similar climatology to much of our forum. The southern VA posters have a more distant climatology than southern PA. Not sure what the fuss is all about. Philly has very similar annual snowfall, temps, and precip to IAD and BWI. Southern VA is part of the SE forum for that very reason. And I like keeping Philly separate (mainly because the city just plain sucks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 41 minutes ago, nj2va said: Southern VA is part of the SE forum for that very reason. And I like keeping Philly separate (mainly because the city just plain sucks). Well you never lived there then. I lived there for 22 years and it's a fantastic city. Rejuvenated center city, best restaurant scene on the east coast, very walkable, historic...just awesome really. And more affordable than DC NYC and BOS. Also, received 31" in Blizz of 96...so I think that is the highest single storm total in the Megalopolis. Philly is a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Good look at the Pineapple Connection coming out of the Pacific and thru Baja into the Southern US on the 0z GFS as the pattern begins to develop moving thru early next week. Think 'moisture feed'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS is looking supressed..but at this range..I'll take that vs cutter any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 That’s some serious cad...850 line down to the VA/NC boarder at 159. Big hit south/central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS is looking supressed..but at this range..I'll take that vs cutter any day. Setting up larger system a day later? Not sure end result will be suppressed. HP is epic spot and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 A red flag on the gfs is the 3 low pressure centers. How can you trust the progression from that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 well it's not the perfect hit, but I'm officially interested in this one now. Even more so than 12z when it was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Ha doesnt want to transfer to the coast. Seems bogus given the stronger HP and upper ridging out ahead of the primary. Certainly possible tho not likely imo. Decent signal there for strong CAD more than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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