Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m still looking at guidance because habit but I’m simplifying my expectations and optimism to the fact the soi is about to crash and the mjo is going to cold phases at high amplitude. If that doesn’t work out oh well but history says it will. Imho- LR guidance is becoming more cohesive with a believable thesis so I'm taking it more seriously now. The ambiguous washed out and jumpy every 6 to 12 hours gives us coin flip odds at guessing right. Seem to be moving away from that and into something that's more logical and makes sense. Might get a glimpse of a (believable) big storm pattern here within the next few days. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Didn't you make a pointless post yesterday about no snow for south of NYC rest of winter? He said Cape May to be exact which is at the same latitude as DC and impressive to pin as an exact rain snow line for every storm in the next 6 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Didn't you make a pointless post yesterday about no snow for south of NYC rest of winter? I think it fair to say that many feather have been rustled in the last week or so. Some skin is thicker than others. Maybe its his first year trackin, so he's got some learning to do. I say we look forward and let go of yesterday. Embrace the warmth, cause you may not see the anomalous stuff for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I think it fair to say that many feather have been rustled in the last week or so. Some skin is thicker than others. Maybe its his first year trackin, so he's got some learning to do. I say we look forward and let go of yesterday. Embrace the warmth, cause you may not see the anomalous stuff for a while. Great post. We all have our mini meltdownswhen things look bleak. I’m just going to pretend it’s Spring and then act surprised if a KU or a 1-3 incher shows up on guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He said Cape May to be exact which is at the same latitude as DC and impressive to pin as an exact rain snow line for every storm in the next 6 weeks... Sounds about right to me. The SE ridge has just enough flex to trump all teleconnections and the very negative EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He said Cape May to be exact which is at the same latitude as DC and impressive to pin as an exact rain snow line for every storm in the next 6 weeks... Well, I-66 has been the 'break' on a couple storms this year, both north of and south of. Maybe he is just playing the averages....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Bringing this over courtesy of 33andrain, bottom line, for the first time, maybe all winter, things are forecasted to work together, versus against. This post echoes what we were discussing this morning and complements it, and touches on some things HM mentioned as well. I know some appreciate this kind of detail when it comes to the Pac, MJO, blocking and other factors. I am becoming less bitter today :-) <<<<< Posted 29 minutes ago Below is a signal i've truly yet to see all winter long; a stable constructive interference, intra-seasonal signal with what also looks like a dual-low frequency mode along and east of 180 degrees. This is the stability that many have been anticipating and expecting, but has yet to develop until about now. There is indeed an impressive Eq. Rossby wave that has allowed for some slowing and even causing chaos in those RMM phase diagrams (which be careful to use as they don't always tell the whole story). It's these depiction however, that kicks off with what looks to be our best conducive stretch of wintry prospects early-mid Feb into about late month. Sometimes, you just have to step back, and look at it from a wide view. Notice where the robust center of convection is and a coherent signal as well with some convection hanging back towards the MC. It's no coincidence that the EPS and GEFS are at odds with each other starting valid next week. It's here below, at this time stamp, that begins the divergence and this is attributed to the parameterization of there tropical forcing forecasts and initialization. I'm inclined to believe, based on what i've attached and been watching daily, that the EPS is correct in this poleward ridge into Alaska with a positive tilt, therefore, inducing lower heights downstream faster than its counterpart - the GEFS. Some similarities, but the difference is poleward amplification and it's stymied by its MJO progression. I'd expect a correction towards the EPS in time, but nonetheless, I do like the upcoming gradient pattern. Thereafter, it's interesting given +AAM in the tropics and a soon-to-be big +EAMT rebound and pacific waveguide shuffling that'll allow - bearing more curveballs, a +PNA depiction post ~ 20th with a potent window of actual Greenland blocking. i'm definitely intrigued by the cyclonic wave breaking that'll be occurring all the while this period happens and if we can get that retrograding signal to commence (0z/6z GEFS showed it as Geoff displayed). Despite the emotional rollercoaster, you have to just prevail against the "noise". Split flow, retrogression, and added westerly inertia.... not an easy thing for guidance. We'll see where it goes, but its hard not to like the period starting next week. >>>>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Until this winter, the MJO was barely talked about. Now it's mentioned in every other post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 GFS not as favorable for part 1 of next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1092813031174795265 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Seems like the High has much better placement on the 12Z GFS but we rain anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Until this winter, the MJO was barely talked about. Now it's mentioned in every other post! Well, as others have said...it's been drivin' the bus all winter (and subsequently frustrating every long range forecast made before winter started)...so it's been forced into the discussion! Gotta wonder if, going forward...it will be discussed more in winter forecasts (not sure how predictable it is beforehand, though!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said: Seems like the High has much better placement on the 12Z GFS but we rain anyway It’s a bit slower and more amplified so that’ll offset that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 37 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Until this winter, the MJO was barely talked about. Now it's mentioned in every other post! It’s been talked about forever by actual Mets doing real forecasting. The terminology changes but identifying the location and amplitude of tropical forcing has always been the number one key to long range forecasts. Why do you think enso is so important. Enso effects the soi which is interrelated with the mjo. It’s all about where heat is being added to the mid latitude equation and how that impacts the longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Until this winter, the MJO was barely talked about. Now it's mentioned in every other post! Sorry but this is just not true. It has been discusses as much as any other major tellie, but its influence is only being realized of late (as to its effect on this winter). It, like the NAO has been falsely modeled, and we've struggled to get into a more stable/predictable regime as a result. Now you see P8 showing up (and strongly so), and anyone that understands the sensible effects, knows that is a money phase for the eastern conus. and see PSU's post above....he types faster than i do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Well old man GFS is ugly for next week. Lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Until this winter, the MJO was barely talked about. Now it's mentioned in every other post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 While some indicies look to be getting into better looks further down the road, if one looks at the CMC, it shows that we still have work to do as it has a wash/rinse/repeat look of what we've been going through. Hoping its an outlier. Just need to proceed through next week w/ caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I wouldn't be surprised to see GFS trend a bit colder with the system.. high 1030s HP should be showing a bit more CAD, especially with that positioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Thanks for the primer! I should rephrase: the MJO has been talked about by experienced mets, but this season it's being discussed by nearly everyone. The volume of MJO posts appears to be 10x higher this season compared to past seasons. Which is a good thing - we should be talking more about the drivers of teleconnections (such as MJO) rather than just the "effects" of these drivers (i.e. the teleconnection indices themselves) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 The GFS and the CMC runs from the 12z runs are remarkably similar in regards to the evolution at 500 mbs of our possible 7 day system though the GFS is about a half day behind. Not that it means that they are right, just noting the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The GFS and the CMC runs from the 12z runs are remarkably similar in regards to the evolution at 500 mbs of our possible 7 day system though the GFS is about a half day behind. Not that it means that they are right, just noting the fact. Much less epo blocking which doesn’t press the western trough east as much so the eastern ridge goes ape and everything cuts 500 miles west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 No euro mjo update today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 39 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Thanks for the primer! I should rephrase: the MJO has been talked about by experienced mets, but this season it's being discussed by nearly everyone. The volume of MJO posts appears to be 10x higher this season compared to past seasons. Which is a good thing - we should be talking more about the drivers of teleconnections (such as MJO) rather than just the "effects" of these drivers (i.e. the teleconnection indices themselves) It has been a huge driver this year. I think that it has correlated so well to the forecast that it is being talked about by everyone. If another index was showing as strong a correlation it would be talked about as well. We all can learn though.. and the data and tools are there to help us! So, as long as people try and make informed comments, no problems from me! ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukmet doesn't look bad at all at 144 . Curious to what future frames would be . 50/50 is further south then the Gfs which should help lock in high pressure better. It’s south with the wave ejecting from the Rockies but also faster which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Fv3 goes north then misses us south with the next wave. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 goes north then misses us south with the next wave. Lol The Euro will set it straight ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Oh no! @Bob Chill must be taking a mid day power nap. Every time he sleeps, things go to hell. Wake up Bob!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 goes north then misses us south with the next wave. Lol Speaking of LOL's, the Fv3 is also promoting a quick hitting plowable snow/sleet event in Eastern PA tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 In regards to that Furtado post yesterday it seems that his idea of above normal in phase 8 or 1 is remote. Since 1995 there have been 24 months in Dec-Feb where the MJO has had moderate amplitude in 8 or 1. If you take BOS NYC DCA in those 24 months, 68 of the 72 averaged below normal. All 4 misses occurred in December and the biggest positive departure was +0.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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