showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looking across the gefs and eps ensembles there is a theme. Some members key on that little weak front runner day 6 and develop that. Those runs either have no day 7/8 storm or it goes north of us. The members that keep that wave weak look good day 7/8. Those still bullseye NW of 95 but most give DC decent snow and the heavy isn’t far NW. similar to the op although the op was a outlier in terms of Precip. Most are a more modest storm. Both 6z gefs and 0z eps shifted south slightly so another shift or two and DC could be in even better shape. I had noticed that as well with the front runner. Didn't look to hard into it but my general thoughts were that a stronger front runner was screwing with the developing ridging in front the trough moving in. Weaker system was allowing better ridging to develop so as to get a deeper and better aligned trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m “open minded” about the transition period, maybe the euro is right, but I’m confident given the mjo and soi that things should shift towards an eastern trough alignment by the 20th. I went through yourt posts psu, can you tell me is the SOI still forecasted in a few days to dive into the negatives like it was 4 days ago. If memory serves me correct that process should start soon. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I think the - 5 is in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I had noticed that as well with the front runner. Didn't look to hard into it but my general thoughts were that a stronger front runner was screwing with the developing ridging in front the trough moving in. Weaker system was allowing better ridging to develop so as to get a deeper and better aligned trough You know the guidance wasn’t wrong about the blocking for this week. It looks great up there right now it’s just being offset by the pac. But it does force a pac wave under it which becomes the 50/50 that sets up the day 7 threat. By then the block breaks down which could open the door to a change to rain although maybe not. By the time the Jan 1996 storm hit the NAO block was gone but the 50/50 it created did the work. That also had an ideal pna though. A better example here might be pd2 which worked with only a 50/50 and no blocking at all and a mediocre PAC at best. Of course I’ve often said that storm was lucky wrt timing and all plus the pna looks worse now so I’m not saying this is a good analog, just that we can work with just a good 50/50. As far as the day 15 look oddly the gefs has now come around to what a phase 8/1 mjo -soi pattern should look like while the eps looks like a weird convoluted mess. The eps has been just as wrong day 15 all winter so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Saw a sizable bump up on the GEFS snowfall means for the possible 7-8 day storm. Saw a roughly 1 inch increase through the cities with an inch and a half north and west. Now looking at 2 inches in the cities with 3-3 1/2 towards the Mason Dixon. And looking at the individual members is much more promising as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the extended on the EPS beyond our possible day 7-8 storm and we are mostly seeing improvements there as well. The only issue is that the EPS is starting to lose the N-Atlantic. We are seeing a continuing decay of blocking over Greenland. This is resulting in a migration of the lower pressures we were initially seeing in the general 50/50 region now towards the east of Greenland. Without that 50/50 the N-Atlantic is pretty much lost for us with such weak blocking. But before some start preaching Doom and Gloom there are two things to consider. First, the models are notorious for mishandling the NAO domain so this could just be a matter of the models once again picking up on the blocking as we near in time. Second, with the continuing improvements we are seeing in the PAC and the West there is a good chance we will not need it anyway. And as far as what we are seeing in the west are positive trends. We are seeing the EPS moving away from the idea of a strong SW trough as it is weakening it with a shallower drop thus resulting in weaker heights in the east. The EPO is also looking generally more inclined to the possibility of a northern based +PNA towards the end of it's run. Overall the general look/flow looks more conducive for seeing the boundary shifted south from previous runs. Overall the overnight EPS run was a win in my book. Good post! Was about to type something similar but you are on top of things. Fun times ahead for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You know the guidance wasn’t wrong about the blocking for this week. It looks great up there right now it’s just being offset by the pac. But it does force a pac wave under it which becomes the 50/50 that sets up the day 7 threat. By then the block breaks down which could open the door to a change to rain although maybe not. By the time the Jan 1996 storm hit the NAO block was gone but the 50/50 it created did the work. That also had an ideal pna though. A better example here might be pd2 which worked with only a 50/50 and no blocking at all and a mediocre PAC at best. Of course I’ve often said that storm was lucky wrt timing and all plus the pna looks worse now so I’m not saying this is a good analog, just that we can work with just a good 50/50. As far as the day 15 look oddly the gefs has now come around to what a phase 8/1 mjo -soi pattern should look like while the eps looks like a weird convoluted mess. The eps has been just as wrong day 15 all winter so whatever. This is pretty much why I have been arguing that we don't need to see great blocking we just need to see sufficient enough blocking to slow down and/or trap a 50/50. Let the 50/50 do the dirty work. Snow is snow after all no matter how we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Lool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Ah, winter 1994. Growing up in central PA, the 1993 blizzard set back high school graduations by a week. They changed things going forward that if too many snow days forced the extension of the school year that the seniors would still graduate on time. Here comes 1994, I was a senior. And we graduated on time despite the school year getting extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Lool Hmmmm.... Feb 2010 thrown into the mix? Isn't it interesting that he always finds a way to get the big dogs into the conversation? In this case it may have some merit but when he continual throws out these big years in all his discussions and by quite often loose correlations to boot, is it any wonder we all think 'The boy who cried wolf' when ever he speaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Lool If JB is correct with the dive in the SOI, and I think he is to a certain degree, then as @showmethesnow stated the Pac could carry the show. BUT, you have to wonder if or when, we see a several day period where the models bring back a -NAO, simply due to the fact we are getting a favorable MJO phase 8. And this time the progression through the good phases is slow, versus the last time wherewe hit phase 8 and then bang, wemoved to phase 5 quickly. If there was ever a time or a reason to get the good look it would be soon. @donsutherland1 stated this morning the dismal performance of the Weeklies ( week 3 focused ) may have to do with the lack of coupling with the Nino. I would think with improvements in the Pac, the models can be taken a little more seriously this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: This is pretty much why I have been arguing that we don't need to see great blocking we just need to see sufficient enough blocking to slow down and/or trap a 50/50. Let the 50/50 do the dirty work. Snow is snow after all no matter how we get it. Agree but I’m not sure without decent blocking we will get a stable 50/50. The next 3 days we have a pretty good NAO block. That sets up the 50/50. After that the 50/50 becomes ambiguous and not ideally located after blocking breaks down completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Wow. Every day, more and more negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Interesting seems the way you get the effects onto the streams is just as important If more momentum is partitioned into northern stream, that would significantly reduce any NAO chances and likely bring more widespread warmth. Models are of course struggling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Hey, I just realized that the overnight runs weren't a disaster. Did we break the cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: I went through yourt posts psu, can you tell me is the SOI still forecasted in a few days to dive into the negatives like it was 4 days ago. If memory serves me correct that process should start soon. Thanks Looking at mslp anomalies on the eps and gefs the soi looks to go solidly negative by day 6 then really tank by day 10 through 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: I have to admire your stamina to continue to pick apart the long range. At this point I am pretty much done with delving deep into extendeds. With how rough the models have been it has been pretty pointless in my mind and I no longer have the energy for it. I will continue look at the 500 means and some other maps but as far as picking apart each ensemble member I am pretty much beyond that. Just said the same thing in my CTP forum. The ol ticker just cant handle it. fwiw, I typically only look at 500's for LR speculation. Its just an easy way to get a rough guess at where things are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 So did I just see us punt to 20 FEB? Looks like this winter might be over. Never really started for those north of DC region. Let's go ahead and warm up, but I'm sure "winter" will finally arrive in the form of 40s and rain in late March through June. Yippie!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 46 minutes ago, Ji said: Lool boy I hope JB is onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: I think the - 5 is in trouble Can’t blast him too hard for the forecast. It wasn’t that out of line with my own or most others. He somehow still went more cold in a year everyone was going cold but that’s JB. But his spin and stubbornness and unwillingness to adjust on the fly are inexcusable. Ironically buckeye pointed out that some of the crap people take in here for posting negative stuff might be why he simply always spins positive snow weenie stuff. Even if your right no one is happy with you for bursting their bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: So did I just see us punt to 20 FEB? Looks like this winter might be over. Never really started for those north of DC region. Let's go ahead and warm up, but I'm sure "winter" will finally arrive in the form of 40s and rain in late March through June. Yippie!! So you ignored all the posts about the day 7 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at mslp anomalies on the eps and gefs the soi looks to go solidly negative by day 6 then really tank by day 10 through 15. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 38 minutes ago, frd said: If JB is correct with the dive in the SOI, and I think he is to a certain degree, then as @showmethesnow stated the Pac could carry the show. BUT, you have to wonder if or when, we see a several day period where the models bring back a -NAO, simply due to the fact we are getting a favorable MJO phase 8. And this time the progression through the good phases is slow, versus the last time wherewe hit phase 8 and then bang, wemoved to phase 5 quickly. If there was ever a time or a reason to get the good look it would be soon. @donsutherland1 stated this morning the dismal performance of the Weeklies ( week 3 focused ) may have to do with the lack of coupling with the Nino. I would think with improvements in the Pac, the models can be taken a little more seriously this go around. yup. Pac/mjo have shown they run the show, so IF we can get the PAC to cooperate on the backside of peak climo, we can still luck our way into opps even if the NAO never shows up to the party. Thats why I've been the skeptic of all the NAO jibber jabber. We can find other ways, and in the last few years, we've seen that. MJO into 8 would be fantastic especially if we can get the PNA into the + column and keep it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Hmmmm.... Feb 2010 thrown into the mix? Isn't it interesting that he always finds a way to get the big dogs into the conversation? In this case it may have some merit but when he continual throws out these big years in all his discussions and by quite often loose correlations to boot, is it any wonder we all think 'The boy who cried wolf' when ever he speaks? That and everything is the most extreme example of a somewhat similar pattern. Every -epo is 1994. Every -NAO is 2010. Every full latitude trough is 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 43 minutes ago, frd said: If JB is correct with the dive in the SOI, and I think he is to a certain degree, then as @showmethesnow stated the Pac could carry the show. BUT, you have to wonder if or when, we see a several day period where the models bring back a -NAO, simply due to the fact we are getting a favorable MJO phase 8. And this time the progression through the good phases is slow, versus the last time wherewe hit phase 8 and then bang, wemoved to phase 5 quickly. If there was ever a time or a reason to get the good look it would be soon. @donsutherland1 stated this morning the dismal performance of the Weeklies ( week 3 focused ) may have to do with the lack of coupling with the Nino. I would think with improvements in the Pac, the models can be taken a little more seriously this go around. I agree with Don. Like we were talking about before in long range models keep going to the enso sst analog look and missing the mjo influence muting that. If the mjo finally cooperates the look should finally come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting seems the way you get the effects onto the streams is just as important If more momentum is partitioned into northern stream, that would significantly reduce any NAO chances and likely bring more widespread warmth. Models are of course struggling here. Not sure i get why you think it would hurt the NAO? As shown, there is plenty of spacing for NAO to do its thing. What am i missing/not seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure i get why you think it would hurt the NAO? As shown, there is plenty of spacing for NAO to do its thing. What am i missing/not seeing? Well HM said ( see below the Bolded part ) Beyond this only he can provide more into his thoughts on why. : If more momentum is partitioned into northern stream, that would significantly reduce any NAO chances and likely bring more widespread warmth. Models are of course struggling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 GEFS wants to go to Phase 8 at a pretty high amplitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure i get why you think it would hurt the NAO? As shown, there is plenty of spacing for NAO to do its thing. What am i missing/not seeing? I didnt get what he was saying either. What i do like seeing in that animation is a sustained LP in the Aleutian region throughout the run. We may finally get a decent ridge position if it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure i get why you think it would hurt the NAO? As shown, there is plenty of spacing for NAO to do its thing. What am i missing/not seeing? I think he was saying if it trends towards more amplified northern jet. Not that it’s going to or is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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