The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah but it’s all those indices that define the pattern.  Take that away and it’s just a bunch of people complaining about it not snowing.  

True

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Do you know that we have a pretty nice -NAO the next few days. This is kind of a last minute development. I wonder why the last few times we have had real -NAO it's been with -PNA?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

[Ji]

Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Do you know that we have a pretty nice -NAO the next few days. This is kind of a last minute development. I wonder why the last few times we have had real -NAO it's been with -PNA?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

lol no one is paying attention to it cause its 90 degrees tomorrow

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point I doubt we ever get a really good pattern going this winter honestly. Forces are at work along the east coast and they are making sure that 1) we'll never be able to accurately predict long range patterns 2) there will always be something wrong 3) a classic miller A or B will prob have to wait until next year 4) we'll end up getting more snow regardless. 

I'm gonna assume that means we'll have to live off of sliders in order to get snow, then? (Cranky also has the same opinion about no coastal potential). If so, hopefully we can get another couple that have juice!

[aldie 22]

Euro weeklies are like wishing on a shooting star

 

[showmethesnow]

The file's to big to post but if you get a chance pull up tropical tidbits and do a forecast gif of the 500's & mslp maps from 162 hr to the end of the run at 384 from the 18Z GEFS. Now pay attention to the height lines from the central US to the east coast and even far out into the Atlantic. Never seen anything like it. They do not move at all. Boundary stays planted and does not move for almost 10 days.

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The file's to big to post but if you get a chance pull up tropical tidbits and do a forecast gif of the 500's & mslp maps from 162 hr to the end of the run at 384 from the 18Z GEFS. Now pay attention to the height lines from the central US to the east coast and even far out into the Atlantic. Never seen anything like it. They do not move at all. Boundary stays planted and does not move for almost 10 days.

 

Are we on the right side of the boundary?  Too scared to look

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Are we on the right side of the boundary?  Too scared to look

I lied a little bit. The boundary probably sets up just a touch north of what we would like and then shifts slightly south towards the end maybe putting us on the winning side. It's close though. But at this range all we need to know is that we are in the game as far as the GEFS is concerned.

[Wonderdog]

Probably straddling the line.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I lied a little bit. The boundary probably sets up just a touch north of what we would like and then shifts slightly south towards the end maybe putting us on the winning side. It's close though. But at this range all we need to know is that we are in the game.

Yeah boundary is close enough to raise an eyebrow at anything coming at us.

Put an H in the right location and we may be into something.

I was away for a long weekend and it looks like we once again are pulling for the delayed and maybe not denied scenarios. 

 

[osfan24]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point I doubt we ever get a really good pattern going this winter honestly. Forces are at work along the east coast and they are making sure that 1) we'll never be able to accurately predict long range patterns 2) there will always be something wrong 3) a classic miller A or B will prob have to wait until next year 4) we'll end up getting more snow regardless. 

Yeah I hate to call it when it's freaking February 4th and winter is still only half over, or slightly half over, but it just looks like it's not meant to be. Massive disappointment given the hype coming into the year. Maybe we fluke our way to something, but I'm just about ready to give up hope, which will allow me to no longer be super frustrated over this winter. I already feel less invested over the past few days as the "supposed great pattern" is continuing to get kicked down the road as it has all winter.

 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Probably straddling the line.

We don’t do great with that set up.  But we had one long duration event.  Good enough I guess.  Snow blower next year perhaps..they should be on sale here shortly

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm gonna assume that means we'll have to live off of sliders in order to get snow, then? (Cranky also has the same opinion about no coastal potential). If so, hopefully we can get another couple that have juice!

I wouldn't say sliders. They require a suppressed storm track and I don't see any indication of that setting up. We (or somebody) in the east could get a prolific snow event from the looks of things though. No shortage of precip producers. Even a track to our west could drop a foot if antecedent conditions are good.

The upcoming pattern is loaded with weakish waves but they can tap copious deep moisture from the gulf or southern stream in general. Not going to be dry anytime soon and cold is lurking. Can't really ask for much more in any winter month.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I hate to call it when it's freaking February 4th and winter is still only half over, or slightly half over, but it just looks like it's not meant to be. Massive disappointment given the hype coming into the year. Maybe we fluke our way to something, but I'm just about ready to give up hope, which will allow me to no longer be super frustrated over this winter. I already feel less invested over the past few days as the "supposed great pattern" is continuing to get kicked down the road as it has all winter.

 

That's not what i was saying. I'm not punting anything except this week. It may not be ideal going forward but it's also nothing like a shutout or hopeless pattern. It's actually a really interesting pattern and I'd be more suprised if we didn't get a few more measurable events, 

[winterymix]

I see light snow with GFS on 11th, 12th and 16th followed by skeeters and allergy season.

[Wonderdog]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I hate to call it when it's freaking February 4th and winter is still only half over, or slightly half over, but it just looks like it's not meant to be. Massive disappointment given the hype coming into the year. Maybe we fluke our way to something, but I'm just about ready to give up hope, which will allow me to no longer be super frustrated over this winter. I already feel less invested over the past few days as the "supposed great pattern" is continuing to get kicked down the road as it has all winter.

 

Yeah, we really have to learn to temper our expectations with the LR analysis. Does it ever work out? Then again, we have this discussion every year. Seems to be no real accurate person who nails the long range. It's one thing to analyze what the models spit out in the LR and we have very smart people doing that in this forum. But analyzing is not predicting and the people who have been trying to predict or state opinions on the LR don't seem to have had a very good year up to this point.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not what i was saying. I'm not punting anything except this week. It may not be ideal going forward but it's also nothing like a shutout or hopeless pattern. It's actually a really interesting pattern and I'd be more suprised if we didn't get a few more measurable events, 

I could see huge differences north to south in our region coming up. This is where psu and showme can cash in which is fine.  I realize we need the cold air first and take chances with precip..never the other way.  

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not what i was saying. I'm not punting anything except this week. It may not be ideal going forward but it's also nothing like a shutout or hopeless pattern. It's actually a really interesting pattern and I'd be more suprised if we didn't get a few more measurable events, 

Everyone’s always HECS hunting 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Everyone’s always HECS hunting 

For sure, but this year seemed like it was as likely as any year to produce a HECS. The hype just seemed off the charts. You couldn't find a forecaster predicting anything but above normal snowfall around here, and comparison to 2009-2010 with a loaded second half, and then the weeklies all looking amazing for that timeframe. And then this is what we get. It's kinda like asking Santa for a new sports car and walking outside and seeing a used 1998 Kia in the driveway.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Everyone’s always HECS hunting 

Maybe we'll have one in early March. The long range looks really good on GFS ensembles. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, osfan24 said:

For sure, but this year seemed like it was as likely as any year to produce a HECS. The hype just seemed off the charts. You couldn't find a forecaster predicting anything but above normal snowfall around here, and comparison to 2009-2010 with a loaded second half, and then the weeklies all looking amazing for that timeframe. And then this is what we get. It's kinda like asking Santa for a new sports car and walking outside and seeing a used 1998 Kia in the driveway.

Good analogy.  I bought into the idea that Feb would rock.  The smartest people in our world predicted good things.  But if you can’t rely on the weeklies then it’s just a dice throw. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Maybe we'll have one in early March. The long range looks really good on GFS ensembles. 

Yeah but cmon everything looks good always until we are inside 15 days.  

[Fozz]

I'd be perfectly happy with a dynamic MECS. I don't know if it's in the cards, but somehow DC ended up with one in mid-January.

[frd]

31 minutes ago, winterymix said:

I see light snow with GFS on 11th, 12th and 16th followed by skeeters and allergy season.

I see a big cane season a coming 

[Bob Chill]

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Everyone’s always HECS hunting 

Yea, time to drop that idea imho. I'll hecs hunt the second we have a hecs pattern at day 10. Until then it's best to just focus on how the upcoming workable but flawed pattern can snow on us. I keep thinking back to the period before our good storm. It looked like a complete dumpster fire 15 days out. This is one of those years where it's best to stop looking far down the road because it's proven to be a complete waste of time since the season began.

Just like Ji posted earlier... if we do get a -nao it's going to pop up unexpectedly. Same with a big storm. We prob won't see it coming. 

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Good analogy.  I bought into the idea that Feb would rock.  The smartest people in our world predicted good things.  But if you can’t rely on the weeklies then it’s just a dice throw. 

We just never had the PAC or the NAO right the whole winter. I am not gonna complain. I lucked into 8 snow events in a 20 day span even with an iffy pattern. In general the Mid Atlantic is the only place to get snow this winter. So we really dont have a reason to be pissed.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We just never had the PAC or the NAO right the whole winter. I am not gonna complain. I lucked into 8 snow events in a 20 day span even with an iffy pattern. In general the Mid Atlantic is the only place to get snow this winter. So we really dont have a reason to be pissed.

Nah.  Not pissed anymore. Hit bottom when I was pacing the house at 12 am the other night waiting for the GEFS thinking WTF. Just gonna ride it to the bottom like that captain on the Titanic.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

For sure, but this year seemed like it was as likely as any year to produce a HECS. The hype just seemed off the charts. You couldn't find a forecaster predicting anything but above normal snowfall around here, and comparison to 2009-2010 with a loaded second half, and then the weeklies all looking amazing for that timeframe. And then this is what we get. It's kinda like asking Santa for a new sports car and walking outside and seeing a used 1998 Kia in the driveway.

I totally get the frustration and disappointment thus far this winter. I'm sure those experts and others who put forth thoughtful long range predictions of above normal snow, and saw the same promises in the long range guidance, are just as exasperated. It's been a rough season for anything medium to longer range. 

But I do have to make a couple of comments on what you say here because it seems a bit unfair to me. While there were many bullish forecasts, I don't recall any of the more experienced posters making comparisons to 2009-10 or promising any HECS this winter. Yeah some hype and excitement perhaps at previous weeklies. But I think a bunch of other posts in here got overly weenieish and perhaps made some assumptions about what was being said. And "as likely as any year to produce a HECS" doesn't mean much because in any year the odds of such are not likely anyhow. Not only that, but we can easily score well above normal snow around here without a HECS. Just look at 2013-14 and 2014-15 for example. And this year the DC metro area scored a solid 10-12" event a few weeks back...not a HECS but a great moderate or better storm.

So let's see how it pans out through mid-March or there about. No, we may not get the Ferrari this winter but I suspect we'll end up better than a used '98 Kia. Perhaps along the lines of a newer Honda Civic. 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, time to drop that idea imho. I'll hecs hunt the second we have a hecs pattern at day 10. Until then it's best to just focus on how the upcoming workable but flawed pattern can snow on us. I keep thinking back to the period before our good storm. It looked like a complete dumpster fire 15 days out. This is one of those years where it's best to stop looking far dowm the road because it's proven to be a complete was of time since the season began.

Just like Ji posted earlier... if we do get a -nao it's going to pop up unexpectedly. Same with a big storm. We prob won't see it coming. 

You’re right but it’s hard for me to let that go. 

1.  I love big storms. I would take a winter with 30” that all fell in one storm over a winter with 40” that came 3-5” at a time. 

2.  Im still 26” from climo. I guess Im still trying to beat climo. I wasn’t the last 2 years. Gave up on that early. This year will be a bummer if I dont. But I doubt I can get there without at least one big storm. Maybe not an hecs but at least a 10”+.  I could get four 6” storms and still be 2” short of just mean.  I doubt I can nickel and dime my way to average from where I am. I bet without at least one 10” storm I probably am not making it. 

[jaydreb]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re right but it’s hard for me to let that go. 

1.  I love big storms. I would take a winter with 30” that all fell in one storm over a winter with 40” that came 3-5” at a time. 

2.  Im still 26” from climo. I guess Im still trying to beat climo. I wasn’t the last 2 years. Gave up on that early. This year will be a bummer if I dont. But I doubt I can get there without at least one big storm. Maybe not an hecs but at least a 10”+.  I could get four 6” storms and still be 2” short of just mean.  I doubt I can nickel and dime my way to average from where I am. I bet without at least one 10” storm I probably am not making it. 

I don’t know.  A gradient pattern could set up pretty well for you.