The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

No joke. If we can make a 8-1-2 run the next month that’s about all we can hope for from the MJO. For us DC south weenies we have about 4 weeks left of snow climo. So it’s now or Winter 2019-20

We can do this. Backloaded winter ftw. 

[SnowGolfBro]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We can do this. Backloaded winter ftw. 

I will track to the last flake.  Would be nice to score one more warning level event before the book gets closed on this winter.  I actually haven’t been terribly disappointed. I’m one decent event from reaching climo. And we have a fair amount to track.

[clskinsfan]

Not really liking the AO forecast. IF it is right we will most likely start seeing the NAO forecast go even more positive. Losing blocking is not a great formula for late winter success.

[psuhoffman]

@frd @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow @Bob Chill @Ji

Gonna try to keep this brief. I think guidance is way off. Those pressure and convection charts I posted do not jive with guidance. And that look is universal. Mjo updated and everything gets it into an amplified 8 by day 15. Euro by day 9. The mjo been driving this bus all year. There are other influences like the pv displacement from the sswe but we saw how the mjo was able to mute and influence the implant of that towards the expected mjo pattern. It doesn’t always match exactly but when it’s at strong amplitude it pulls things in that direction. The models have been messing that up at range all winter. I’m simply applying the same trends here.  The mjo is trending more amplified and that fits seasonal trends.  This comes down to 3 things. 

1.  I do believe the mjo goes strong into 8/1/2. 

2.  The soi is about to crash

3.  I don’t believe we sit under a pig SE ridge during a strong mjo 8/1/2 during a -soi 

Right now I’m leaning on those 3 things. There is a first for everything but I’m betting against a huge eastern ridge with those facts. 

The one issue is we might have to wait. There is a lag time sometimes and if we take a compromise mjo speed we get into 8 around day 10-11. It might be day 15 before we feel the effect. Time is getting short here so any delay is bad at this point but it is what it is. 

Before that I am less enthused at this gradient pattern coming. For everytime we get a 2014 or 2015 there are 3 examples where it didn’t work.  They tend to shift north and end up wet more than white here. 2014 and 2015 had an ideal epo ridge AND ideal tpv displacement. We have neither this time on progs.  The AO is about to go positive. That seems almost certain. We would need something to adjust. Either better NAO or crazy NAO 50/50 or epo shift. It could shift in our favor but it’s getting into medium range soon and it’s bleeding the wrong way (as usual). 

We tried a similar look last February, Jan/feb 2009, a period late feb into March 2006, much of late 2001, 1994, 1993...it’s usually congrats central PA north. I’d be very excited if I still lived in Pine Grove or Hazleton PA. Here it’s usually some Minor snow on the front end washed away by rain.  1994 was weird with the ice that’s not typical. 

So I’m not saying this can’t work. It can. It has. But history suggests it fails 75% of the time so I’m not going to get my hopes up. But after this I do think the guidance is flat wrong and we see a better pattern develop, just maybe a week later than we want. 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow @Bob Chill @Ji

Gonna try to keep this brief. I think guidance is way off. Those pressure and convection charts I posted do not jive with guidance. And that look is universal. Mjo updated and everything gets it into an amplified 8 by day 15. Euro by day 9. The mjo been driving this bus all year. There are other influences like the pv displacement from the sswe but we saw how the mjo was able to mute and influence the implant of that towards the expected mjo pattern. It doesn’t always match exactly but when it’s at strong amplitude it pulls things in that direction. The models have been messing that up at range all winter. I’m simply applying the same trends here.  The mjo is trending more amplified and that fits seasonal trends.  This comes down to 3 things. 

1.  I do believe the mjo goes strong into 8/1/2. 

2.  The soi is about to crash

3.  I don’t believe we sit under a pig SE ridge during a strong mjo 8/1/2 during a -soi 

Right now I’m leaning on those 3 things. There is a first for everything but I’m betting against a huge eastern ridge with those facts. 

The one issue is we might have to wait. There is a lag time sometimes and if we take a compromise mjo speed we get into 8 around day 10-11. It might be day 15 before we feel the effect. Time is getting short here so any delay is bad at this point but it is what it is. 

Before that I am less enthused at this gradient pattern coming. For everytime we get a 2014 or 2015 there are 3 examples where it didn’t work.  They tend to shift north and end up wet more than white here. 2014 and 2015 had an ideal epo ridge AND ideal tpv displacement. We have neither this time on progs.  The AO is about to go positive. That seems almost certain. We would need something to adjust. Either better NAO or crazy NAO 50/50 or epo shift. It could shift in our favor but it’s getting into medium range soon and it’s bleeding the wrong way (as usual). 

We tried a similar look last February, Jan/feb 2009, a period late feb into March 2006, much of late 2001, 1994, 1993...it’s usually congrats central PA north. I’d be very excited if I still lived in Pine Grove or Hazleton PA. Here it’s usually some Minor snow on the front end washed away by rain.  1994 was weird with the ice that’s not typical. 

So I’m not saying this can’t work. It can. It has. But history suggests it fails 75% of the time so I’m not going to get my hopes up. But after this I do think the guidance is flat wrong and we see a better pattern develop, just maybe a week later than we want. 

so it sounds like usual...we will be looking at a wintry early March because for whatever reason, it cannot or it never wants to snow here during actual winter months

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

so it sounds like usual...we will be looking at a wintry early March because for whatever reason, it cannot or it never wants to snow here during actual winter months

Aren’t you at like 20” on the year? Lol

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Aren’t you at like 20” on the year? Lol

22-23 inches lol but yea 5 came in November and the rest came in a bad pattern so it wasnt really as fun as it could of been because it was stressful.

Anyway...one common theme this year is whatever we think...the models do the opposite. lol

[StantonParkHoya]

As someone mentioned previously, DC and south has 4 weeks left. Once March gets here, if there is nothing immediate on the horizon, you can stick a fork in it. 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As someone mentioned previously, DC and south has 4 weeks left. Once March gets here, if there is nothing immediate on the horizon, you can stick a fork in it. 

thanks man

[NorthArlington101]

As someone mentioned previously, DC and south has 4 weeks left. Once March gets here, if there is nothing immediate on the horizon, you can stick a fork in it. 

Didn’t North Carolina and Southern VA get snow in April or late March last year? I recall flying over it.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

22-23 inches lol but yea 5 came in November and the rest came in a bad pattern so it wasnt really as fun as it could of been because it was stressful.

Anyway...one common theme this year is whatever we think...the models do the opposite. lol

Some truth to that BUT your big storm was a good pattern. The analogs suggested a big storm threat there. It just wasn’t a very long lasting pattern. Mjo went right back unti phase 4. But for one week the pattern actually was good. 

If I was at ~35” with a 10”+ storm in the mix which is equivalent to your 22/23 wrt climo I would be happy regardless of the pattern.  Pattern is a means to an end. 

Models seem to be keying on the enso sst (oni +.9) and thinking modoki nino pattern and not factoring the mjo correctly at range. That seems the most likely cause here. In fairness 90% of the met community did the same thing when making a seasonal forecast so it’s kinda not fair to beat them up too much. They are only as good as the programmers and we are a long ways from understanding this completely. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

thanks man

Here comes the sun angle brigade. 

In fairness the snow climo differences become even more extreme after March 5 in this sub. March 5-20 is still pretty snow friendly NW of the fall line but becomes pretty hostile on the coastal plain so the deb posts from places there are understandable. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow @Bob Chill @Ji

Gonna try to keep this brief. I think guidance is way off. Those pressure and convection charts I posted do not jive with guidance. And that look is universal. Mjo updated and everything gets it into an amplified 8 by day 15. Euro by day 9. The mjo been driving this bus all year. There are other influences like the pv displacement from the sswe but we saw how the mjo was able to mute and influence the implant of that towards the expected mjo pattern. It doesn’t always match exactly but when it’s at strong amplitude it pulls things in that direction. The models have been messing that up at range all winter. I’m simply applying the same trends here.  The mjo is trending more amplified and that fits seasonal trends.  This comes down to 3 things. 

1.  I do believe the mjo goes strong into 8/1/2. 

2.  The soi is about to crash

3.  I don’t believe we sit under a pig SE ridge during a strong mjo 8/1/2 during a -soi 

Right now I’m leaning on those 3 things. There is a first for everything but I’m betting against a huge eastern ridge with those facts. 

The one issue is we might have to wait. There is a lag time sometimes and if we take a compromise mjo speed we get into 8 around day 10-11. It might be day 15 before we feel the effect. Time is getting short here so any delay is bad at this point but it is what it is. 

Before that I am less enthused at this gradient pattern coming. For everytime we get a 2014 or 2015 there are 3 examples where it didn’t work.  They tend to shift north and end up wet more than white here. 2014 and 2015 had an ideal epo ridge AND ideal tpv displacement. We have neither this time on progs.  The AO is about to go positive. That seems almost certain. We would need something to adjust. Either better NAO or crazy NAO 50/50 or epo shift. It could shift in our favor but it’s getting into medium range soon and it’s bleeding the wrong way (as usual). 

We tried a similar look last February, Jan/feb 2009, a period late feb into March 2006, much of late 2001, 1994, 1993...it’s usually congrats central PA north. I’d be very excited if I still lived in Pine Grove or Hazleton PA. Here it’s usually some Minor snow on the front end washed away by rain.  1994 was weird with the ice that’s not typical. 

So I’m not saying this can’t work. It can. It has. But history suggests it fails 75% of the time so I’m not going to get my hopes up. But after this I do think the guidance is flat wrong and we see a better pattern develop, just maybe a week later than we want. 

So in a nutshell you are punting thru Feb 20 give or take a day?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So in a nutshell you are punting thru Feb 20 give or take a day?

Punting no. But it’s 3rd and ten and my QB has looked like Goff last night. 

The AO is going positive.  Right now guidance is shifting the trough axis west which is the seasonal trend and it’s not super long range. The mjo probably won’t have an impact until after this day 7-13 wave train. History suggests these type patterns fail 75% of the time. 

Could this be the 25% maybe but the epo seems centered west of where it was in years this worked for DC.  Your success rate on this type pattern is more like 50/50 btw.  You have a better chance than DC.  If I was north of 78 in PA I would be stoked with this look.  

So I’m not saying no chance but I’m not holding my breath  

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Punting no. But it’s 3rd and ten and my QB has looked like Goff last night. 

The AO is going positive.  Right now guidance is shifting the trough axis west which is the seasonal trend and it’s not super long range. The mjo probably won’t have an impact until after this day 7-13 wave train. History suggests these type patterns fail 75% of the time. 

Could this be the 25% maybe but the epo seems centered west of where it was in years this worked for DC.  Your success rate on this type pattern is more like 50/50 btw.  You have a better chance than DC.  If I was north of 78 in PA I would be stoked with this look.  

So I’m not saying no chance but I’m not holding my breath  

 

this is good info about your state of mind on this issue.  If the nominal fail rate is about 75% then its 95% fail here south of you.  I know your discussions focus on DC but the truth is this is an uphill climb as depicted unless things change in a hurry.  GEFS latched onto this 3 runs so will see if its 4 after 12z. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, frd said:

If you told me the AO might go to plus 2 to 3 I would never had believed it a few weeks ago.  

Granted it may not verify, buts that it ugly !  

Still speculation of course about the MJO and the SOI, but wondering whether we get a nasty early March period.  

 

 

 

Ah! Now I haven't heard anyone mention a positive AO until this morning...Did this just pop up? 

[SnowGolfBro]

This week is a true punt. It’s a torch with no medium range threat to track. I’m just hoping that a discreet threat pops up on some guidance by this weekend. With the boundary level wave train it’s possible we got some frozen next week if things fall our way

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah! Now I haven't heard anyone mention a positive AO until this morning...Did this just pop up? 

Don’t think we know if it’s real or fake

[showmethesnow]

GEFS is already looking better then the 00Z by day 9. Not dumping everything into the southwest and you can see it is allowing some NS energy to push eastward.

eta: Also seeing a better EPO emerging by day 9.5. Let's see if it can continue this theme throughout the run though.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

this is good info about your state of mind on this issue.  If the nominal fail rate is about 75% then its 95% fail here south of you.  I know your discussions focus on DC but the truth is this is an uphill climb as depicted unless things change in a hurry.  GEFS latched onto this 3 runs so will see if its 4 after 12z. 

12z gefs is really really really ugly through Feb 18. There is nothing worth analyzing. Trough axis way too far west. Not even close. Cutter after cutter after cutter. 

At the end we start to see the response to the mjo and the pattern looks to be getting better around Feb 19-20. 

I could see that speed up a little if the euro mjo speed is right although if the mjo gets to 8 around the 14-15th the 20th isn’t an unrealistic date to see a downstream response over NAM. 

I’m still optimistic about Feb 20 into March, and I am undecided about Feb 15-20th, but I think before Feb 15 is slipping away. 

[Chris78]

Much better look at the end of the Run. We can work with this. Looks like an active sub tropical jet too.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

12z gefs is really really really ugly through Feb 18. There is nothing worth analyzing. Trough axis way too far west. Not even close. Cutter after cutter after cutter. 

At the end we start to see the response to the mjo and the pattern looks to be getting better around Feb 19-20. 

I could see that speed up a little if the euro mjo speed is right although if the mjo gets to 8 around the 14-15th the 20th isn’t an unrealistic date to see a downstream response over NAM. 

I’m still optimistic about Feb 20 into March, and I am undecided about Feb 15-20th, but I think before Feb 15 is slipping away. 

Yeah, only up to day 11 but it still looks like crap. Baby steps though and we are seeing some improvements where I believe we need to see them.

[showmethesnow]

Interesting evolution on the GEFS. Went to total crap after day ten just to morph into a northern based +PNA/EPO combo over-cutting a -PNA in the south at the end of the run. Throw in the NAO and 50/50 combo as well and I would take that look any day of the week. 

eta: Now where have we heard the phrase, 'Just two weeks away'? 

[Wonderdog]

FWIW,  12z FV3 still has the winter storm on 2/12/19!

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

I really am at witts end here.  

When the MJO arrives at phase 8 and 1 the long standing composites show Greenland blocking and a trough in the East. But, here we see something totally different. 

And to make matters worse the Poles are getting less blocky and we are losing the -AO rapidly . Plus, negative changes over Siberia as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Even Amy Butler is frustrated.  Time to re-think long range guideance and forecasts. Yeah, sorry, I am bitter. 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS is already looking better then the 00Z by day 9. Not dumping everything into the southwest and you can see it is allowing some NS energy to push eastward.

eta: Also seeing a better EPO emerging by day 9.5. Let's see if it can continue this theme throughout the run though.

It is and it pays off later, by day 13 the pressure patterns actually look better and by 15-16 really good.  But the day 7-12 period that had promise a few days ago looks like a straight cutter pattern to me right now (on the gefs). High pressure moves out well in front and mean low pressure is well NW of us for each of the 3 waves in that period.

after that gefs does have a strong signal for a wave under us day 15 but that’s so far out. Timing does fit with the mjo progression though. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS is already looking better then the 00Z by day 9. Not dumping everything into the southwest and you can see it is allowing some NS energy to push eastward.

eta: Also seeing a better EPO emerging by day 9.5. Let's see if it can continue this theme throughout the run though.

I thought we were trashing the GEFS due to inconsistency? Or does that only apply for bad runs. I need to dig up the weenie handbook and do a refresh 

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS is already looking better then the 00Z 

 

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z gefs is really really really ugly through Feb 18. There is nothing worth analyzing.  

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I thought we were trashing the GEFS due to inconsistency? Or does that only apply for bad runs. I need to dig up the weenie handbook and do a refresh 

Just happened to be around the computer to follow the GEFS and nothing more. 

Until it shows some consistency for more then a couple of runs I will be leaning heavily on the EPS.