The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Eps took a big step back imo. Hopefully it's the euro bias of dumping too much west but the se ridge is ugly as is nao. Plus the early week storm looks terrible

 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps took a big step back imo

The whole 0z suite was a hot steaming pile of poo. No way to polish any of it. Just hope it’s wrong.  

 

[Ji]

The whole 0z suite was a hot steaming pile of poo. No way to polish any of it. Just hope it’s wrong.  
 

But why is the question. Hopefully a blip

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The whole 0z suite was a hot steaming pile of poo. No way to polish any of it. Just hope it’s wrong.  
 

But why is the question. Hopefully a blip

Overnight EPS looks closer to the 00Z from two nights ago then the last run. Dumping too much NS energy into the SW towards the end of the extended. Looking at it, it is probably because the EPO is coming in farther south then the 12z. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The whole 0z suite was a hot steaming pile of poo. No way to polish any of it. Just hope it’s wrong.  
 

But why is the question. Hopefully a blip

I don’t know. Maybe we will find out when the mjo updates. If it degraded that it would explain some of this. I think the Uber long range is wrong but in the medium range it flips the AO positive and anything before Feb 15 at least and more likely the 20th might be toast. 

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The whole 0z suite was a hot steaming pile of poo. No way to polish any of it. Just hope it’s wrong.  
 

But why is the question. Hopefully a blip

This doesn’t add up. Extremely -soi. Forcing east of dateline. Without other hostile influences this should be an eastern trough look. 

[anotherman]

The major theme of this winter is don’t go to sleep. Whatever positives there were when you went to sleep will be reversed by the time you wake up.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

The major theme of this winter is don’t go to sleep. Whatever positives there were when you went to sleep will be reversed by the time you wake up.

The pattern coming up is going to be s gradient pattern. Let's hope eveyone cashes in.

[Wonderdog]

0z FV3 run still has Feb 12th winter storm. No sense looking any further in time imo.

[BristowWx]

53 minutes ago, anotherman said:

The major theme of this winter is don’t go to sleep. Whatever positives there were when you went to sleep will be reversed by the time you wake up.

Like that holiday movie The Family Man...when he is trying not to sleep...that was me last night..happened just like that

[Ralph Wiggum]

44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The pattern coming up is going to be s gradient pattern. Let's hope eveyone cashes in.

Thanks for the breaking news update. 

[showmethesnow]

GEFS still isn't worth much bother as it still is not performing well. About the only concern I may have is that it may be more right then the EPS with one feature, the EPO. It dampens and then flips the EPO positive. Goes that route and then we are looking at an extended period of recovery and that is the last thing you want to see on the back half of winter.

As far as the EPS? The look did degrade somewhat and looks more like the 00Z run from 2 days ago then the previous 12Z run. Still a workable pattern though it does increase the odds of systems running through our region or north and west as the boundary shifts accordingly. All and all the shift was very minor and probably can be attributed to the slightly different handling of one feature. The EPO.

Below we have the 5 day mean of the 12Z run.

 

Now compare the above to the latest run. First off I am sure some will be concerned that the blocking is coming in weaker over Greenland. EPS has been back and forth with that over the last several days and I am sure it will continue to do so. But I myself could care less on how strong that feature is. My only concern is that we see sufficient enough blocking that can lock in the lower heights in the general 50/50 region. We get those lower heights locked in and we are good to go and we can iron out the finer details as this period of time nears. Interesting thing here is, we could even possibly see a neutral or even positive value with the NAO and yet still end up with a 50/50. This is pretty much the reason I put more weight on the maps then I do on indice values alone.

But the N-Atlantic isn't my main focus here. My focus is on the EPO, how the EPS is handling that feature and the repercussions down stream. If you compare the 00Z to the 12z what we are seeing is that the EPO is not as aggressive pushing pole-ward on the 00Z. I had mentioned yesterday that what we prefer to see here was the EPO move into the PNA region giving us a northern based +PNA over cutting the troughing in the southwest. With the more aggressive push pole-ward of the EPO on the 12Z we were seeing it flirting with that idea. But the 00Z backed down somewhat on that feature and so we are now seeing a corresponding shift westward of the higher heights off the west coast. This has consequences with how the EPS is handling the North Stream in the west. Most of the winter we have seen a weakness in the southwest where troughing has set up. This weakness invites NS energy to flow into reinforcing it. What the 12Z run was doing with the west coast higher heights farther east was allowing the NS for the most part to ignore that invitation. It was dumping some energy into that direction but for the most part was allowing it to proceed eastward. What we saw with the overnight run though is that the invite was a little stronger. So more energy was flowing into the southwest and less eastward. Now this can be evidenced by looking at the pressure anomalies. We are seeing stronger neg anomalies farther south into the southwest (line drawn in southwest) as well as a shifting of the greatest neg anomalies southwestward (circle on the US/Canada border). This is having effects downstream as we are also seeing stronger and a shifting westward of the heights in the east (arrow).  These height builds in the east are impacting the boundary setting up in the east and shifting it north. Looking at the blue line (above the line I have drawn in the east) you can see this. 

 

Now at this point I am far from being overly concerned. It is just one run and what is being advertised is still workable though it may be a little more difficult then what the 12Z had advertised. Now if we continue to see a degradation with the EPO over the next couple of days then yeah that would be concerning. But until then I won't borrow trouble. Now for those that love to panic and/or want to understand what we do or don't want to see. Two things I myself will probably pay attention to. First the EPO. We want to either see that getting more aggressive with it's northward push towards the pole and/or see a shifting of that eastward. Second? Keep an eye on the neg pressure anomalies in the west especially the greatest departures around the border. We want to see them stay planted around the NS flow and shifting eastward towards the Lakes. What we don't want to see, and even I will start to panic, is those greatest anomalies start shifting southward into Nevada/Utah or even farther south. What this will signify is a massive dump of the NS into the southwest. If that happens I might just start entertaining thoughts of dewinterizing my trailer for the coming season (just kidding, I think?).  

 

[showmethesnow]

The period I have been interested on for a possibly discrete and amplifying storm somewhere in the east, which is roughly centered on day 11 now, is still being hinted at on the EPS. It did degrade the look somewhat though for a favorable track for our region. But it is enough to know that the EPS still sees the possibility and we can worry about the details later if in fact there is a storm.

[showmethesnow]

The last time I said this a couple of days ago the GEFS went all screwy. But the GEFS has now put 3 runs in a row with some continuity. If we can see another couple of runs that don't go off the rails it may be time to put some weight on its solutions. Right now it is showing a weaker and farther southwest shifted EPO then the EPS so it is dumping the NS into the west and we are seeing a corresponding response in the east with stronger and more westerly based height builds. We are still seeing a favorable setup in the N-Atlantic though. If the n-Atlantic is correct on both models our fortunes are pretty much going to lie with the EPO and how it is handled.

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The last time I said this a couple of days ago the GEFS went all screwy. But the GEFS has now put 3 runs in a row with some continuity. If we can see another couple of runs that don't go off the rails it may be time to put some weight on its solutions. Right now it is showing a weaker and farther southwest shifted EPO then the EPS so it is dumping the NS into the west and we are seeing a corresponding response in the east with stronger and more westerly based height builds. We are still seeing a favorable setup in the N-Atlantic though. If the n-Atlantic is correct on both models our fortunes are pretty much going to lie with the EPO and how it is handled.

The EPO is a concern. Hopefully it ends up being workable at times. I doubt we ever see it sustained in an ideal position at this point.

We need a pig of a -NAO to offset the Pac issues. What do you think the chances are we see that? 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The EPO is a concern. Hopefully it ends up being workable at times. I doubt we ever see it sustained in an ideal position at this point.

We need a pig of a -NAO to offset the Pac issues. What do you think the chances are we see that? 

I thought the 6z GEFS was slightly better now that I know more of what I am looking for like that big dump in the west.  It looks like a big dump still but not as big and the SE ridge not as pronounced...still could be noise.  what I a unsure about is the -NAO its there but not sure how good it is

 

EDIT:  After toggling back forth on the h5 anomaly up near greenland I think its worse on 6z GEFS.  I am sure someone will confirm or deny this statement.  don't think its going in the right direction that's for certain

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I thought the 6z GEFS was slightly better now that I know more of what I am looking for like that big dump in the west.  It looks like a big dump still but not as big and the SE ridge not as pronounced...still could be noise.  what I a unsure about is the -NAO its there but not sure how good it is

 

EDIT:  After toggling back forth on the h5 anomaly up near greenland I think its worse on 6z GEFS.  I am sure someone will confirm or deny this statement.  don't think its going in the right direction that's for certain

I am sure there are those who would argue but the N-Atlantic still looks fine to me. As long as we continue to see those lower pressures locked for an extended period of time towards the 50/50 we should be fine despite the different looks it may throw out at us. Now if we start seeing those lower pressures start migrating towards the east of Greenland or even worse, being allowed to escape altogether, then yeah that's not good.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am sure there are those who would argue but the N-Atlantic still looks fine to me. As long as we continue to see those lower pressures locked for an extended period of time towards the 50/50 we should be fine despite the different looks it may throw out at us. Now if we start seeing those lower pressures start migrating towards the east of Greenland or even worse, being allowed to escape altogether, then yeah that's not good.

you help keep us grounded.  thanks for that. 

[showmethesnow]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The EPO is a concern. Hopefully it ends up being workable at times. I doubt we ever see it sustained in an ideal position at this point.

We need a pig of a -NAO to offset the Pac issues. What do you think the chances are we see that? 

Sick of saying it and reading about it at this point but our EPO fortunes are probably riding on the MJO with its tropical forcings. Think the pv will also have a say in conjunction with the MJO in regards to Hadley cell evolutions but what little I knew about the intricacies on the relationship there are long gone. And the one person that probably has/had a good grasp on that in this forum is incoherent most of the time.

Still don't think we need to see a beast of a -NAO as long as it is sufficient at locking in something around the 50/50.

eta: Don't get me wrong, would love to see a strong west based -NAO but I have some serious doubts we can expect that. 

[frd]

@showmethesnow

What are your thoughts about this unusual outlook,  seems opposite all others 

February Discussion: I did not update my map at all and have chosen to let this outlook ride. This despite most of the calls that I have seen to go colder. Most of the model data is considerably more widespread colder than I am.  So, why do I not agree? There are a couple of reasons. One, for all of the cold talk in January and we did have a couple of sizable outbreaks monthly anomalies may surprise you. Chicago was 3 below normal, Minneapolis only 1 below. Most of the east coast was near normal and the south and west were widespread above normal. Really the month as a whole was not that cold! The second reason is the El Nino. It has not disappeared, more has taken a break. There are signs of it returning. If it does, we may still have this strong polar vortex, but likely will be displaced farther north. My earlier outlook accounted for this strength by going a little below normal in the same areas (Plains and Lakes) that have seen the bulk of the cold so far. The cold outbreaks have been short duration and the moderation has been impressive at the coldest time of the year. I don't see why that would not continue in this pattern given the longer days and higher sun angles. It's not as if I am going blow torch warm. My anomalies are only a degree or two from normal a little higher along the west coast where warmth has been a constant.

New York  +2.0
Philadelphia +2.0
Pittsburgh   +2.0
Cleveland  +1.0
Chicago -1.0
Des Moines -1.0

Dallas +2.0
Denver +2.0
Tucson +3.0
Las Vegas +3.0
Seattle +3.0
Sacramento +3.0
 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS still isn't worth much bother as it still is not performing well. About the only concern I may have is that it may be more right then the EPS with one feature, the EPO. It dampens and then flips the EPO positive. Goes that route and then we are looking at an extended period of recovery and that is the last thing you want to see on the back half of winter.

As far as the EPS? The look did degrade somewhat and looks more like the 00Z run from 2 days ago then the previous 12Z run. Still a workable pattern though it does increase the odds of systems running through our region or north and west as the boundary shifts accordingly. All and all the shift was very minor and probably can be attributed to the slightly different handling of one feature. The EPO.

 

Brief....very brief reply. EPO isnt the be all end all imo. I keep saying we have seen these patterns deliver the goods in the 2nd part of winter quite a bit actually. That neg PNA allows an elongated trof (which is linked partially to the epo) to sit in the SW and down to the baja. The pineapple connection is forced underneath that and extends from the PAC forcing area near the stj all the way into the Eastern US. 50/50 keeps showing up as a persistent feature and the PV near Hudson Bay is also looking better each run. This is the gradient type of look where overrunning rules the show and it can be 'just' cold enough for a heavy pasting. Obviously which side of the boundary you end on will determine real weather. But we dont need a massive neg NAO nor a huge EPO ridge. These patterns can work. Farther N zones are 'generally' favored but too far out to be specific. Any semblance of a block or pressing S of the boundary can change things in a hurry. If you are looking for a widespread heavy pasting with the PV lurking nearby but not overwhelming things and the stj active as all hell then mid month thru week 4 of Feb is the pattern. I said it before and will repeat....this is NOT the season nor pattern where a huge wrapped up low will deliver for I95 areas unless we get some sort of fluke convoluted pattern going into March which may or may not happen. It is these workable gradient patterns that hold the best shot at delivering the goods. Chasing the unicorn is a waste of time at least this year as we've seen. It's funny tho reading other subforum seeing posts how the epic looks arent there and winter is over. That is just not true....not at all. There is hope.

[showmethesnow]

Actually looking at the individual members of the GEFS the 500 means are somewhat misleading with the depiction of the deep trough in the southwest. Means are being skewed a good deal by a handful of members that go to town with throwing low pressure down there. Most of the other members are workable if not downright promising.. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnow

What are your thoughts about this unusual outlook,  seems opposite all others 

February Discussion: I did not update my map at all and have chosen to let this outlook ride. This despite most of the calls that I have seen to go colder. Most of the model data is considerably more widespread colder than I am.  So, why do I not agree? There are a couple of reasons. One, for all of the cold talk in January and we did have a couple of sizable outbreaks monthly anomalies may surprise you. Chicago was 3 below normal, Minneapolis only 1 below. Most of the east coast was near normal and the south and west were widespread above normal. Really the month as a whole was not that cold! The second reason is the El Nino. It has not disappeared, more has taken a break. There are signs of it returning. If it does, we may still have this strong polar vortex, but likely will be displaced farther north. My earlier outlook accounted for this strength by going a little below normal in the same areas (Plains and Lakes) that have seen the bulk of the cold so far. The cold outbreaks have been short duration and the moderation has been impressive at the coldest time of the year. I don't see why that would not continue in this pattern given the longer days and higher sun angles. It's not as if I am going blow torch warm. My anomalies are only a degree or two from normal a little higher along the west coast where warmth has been a constant.

New York  +2.0
Philadelphia +2.0
Pittsburgh   +2.0
Cleveland  +1.0
Chicago -1.0
Des Moines -1.0

Dallas +2.0
Denver +2.0
Tucson +3.0
Las Vegas +3.0
Seattle +3.0
Sacramento +3.0
 

 

 

From what we have seen up to this point it seems reasonable. Much of the colder outlooks were predicated on us seeing a strong and/or west based blocking over Greenland. This would tend to drive the colder air south in the east and lock it it. Now that the models have backed away from this idea we are looking more so to ride the boundary between the warm and cold. Right now the setup argues that we probably ride the south side of that boundary more so then the north side. So yeah, somewhat modest pos anoms seem reasonable.

[frd]

If you told me the AO might go to plus 2 to 3 I would never had believed it a few weeks ago.  

Granted it may not verify, buts that it ugly !  

Still speculation of course about the MJO and the SOI, but wondering whether we get a nasty early March period.  

 

 

[showmethesnow]

56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Brief....very brief reply. EPO isnt the be all end all imo. I keep saying we have seen these patterns deliver the goods in the 2nd part of winter quite a bit actually. That neg PNA allows an elongated trof (which is linked partially to the epo) to sit in the SW and down to the baja. The pineapple connection is forced underneath that and extends from the PAC forcing area near the stj all the way into the Eastern US. 50/50 keeps showing up as a persistent feature and the PV near Hudson Bay is also looking better each run. This is the gradient type of look where overrunning rules the show and it can be 'just' cold enough for a heavy pasting. Obviously which side of the boundary you end on will determine real weather. But we dont need a massive neg NAO nor a huge EPO ridge. These patterns can work. Farther N zones are 'generally' favored but too far out to be specific. Any semblance of a block or pressing S of the boundary can change things in a hurry. If you are looking for a widespread heavy pasting with the PV lurking nearby but not overwhelming things and the stj active as all hell then mid month thru week 4 of Feb is the pattern. I said it before and will repeat....this is NOT the season nor pattern where a huge wrapped up low will deliver for I95 areas unless we get some sort of fluke convoluted pattern going into March which may or may not happen. It is these workable gradient patterns that hold the best shot at delivering the goods. Chasing the unicorn is a waste of time at least this year as we've seen. It's funny tho reading other subforum seeing posts how the epic looks arent there and winter is over. That is just not true....not at all. There is hope.

I agree, if the NAO/50/50 is real and we don't see the NS dump full throttle into the SW then it is a very workable pattern. BUT... how workable it is will be dependent on how much energy is allowed to dump into the southwest vs. pushing eastward. And that will probably be determined by the EPO and how it regulates the dispersal of the NS. The more energy that gets dumped into the southwest then the longer the odds get through the mid-Atlantic as we are more dependent and/or luck as the boundary shifts north and west. Of course those farther to the north and/or west will have better odds then those through the cities, just the nature of the setup, but even you and I will be fighting the odds with what is currently depicted. Still a long way to go, so it isn't worth getting worked up over it one way or the other because in my mind there is a very fine line between a complete Fail and a successful period of time. 

[Ji]

everytime Bob wakes up....there is a big hole in his fishing boat

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

everytime Bob wakes up....there is a big hole in his fishing boat

And every time you post, another weenie earns his wings. 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And every time you post, another weenie earns his wings. 

MJO is still looking good. I am going to trust that since basically its been a big Driver. Hopfully the models catch up this week. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

MJO is still looking good. I am going to trust that since basically its been a big Driver. Hopfully the models catch up this week. 

Wow that looks solid AF tbh.

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wow that looks solid AF tbh.

No joke. If we can make a 8-1-2 run the next month that’s about all we can hope for from the MJO. For us DC south weenies we have about 4 weeks left of snow climo. So it’s now or Winter 2019-20