Chris78 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ji said: What a fv3 weenie run 2 MECS 4 days a part. Nice! Man I hope we end up on the winning side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 2 MECS 4 days a part. Nice! Man I hope we end up on the winning side of the boundary. Nice to see digital snow, I think that's a prerequisite for the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Ensembles are definitely increasing winter wx activity from the 7th onwards. Skeptical of the 7th as it's pretty early and on the heels of 50s and maybe 60s. However, you can't not like seeing this many members picking up on threats as we move through the second week of the month. Some pretty good sized storms and plenty of members with multiple events. It's pretty uncommon for the eps to show this level of activity d10-15. If the h5 pattern sete up as advertised we're going to see a lot of big storms pop up in fantasyland on the ops. 18z Fv3 runs may become common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Well this looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles are definitely increasing winter wx activity from the 7th onwards. Skeptical of the 7th as it's pretty early and on the heels of 50s and maybe 60s. However, you can't not like seeing this many members picking up on threats as we move through the second week of the month. Some pretty good sized storms and plenty of members with multiple events. It's pretty uncommon for the eps to show this level of activity d10-15. If the h5 pattern sete up as advertised we're going to see a lot of big storms pop up in fantasyland on the ops. 18z Fv3 runs may become common. Can we truly believe the potential this time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles are definitely increasing winter wx activity from the 7th onwards. Skeptical of the 7th as it's pretty early and on the heels of 50s and maybe 60s. However, you can't not like seeing this many members picking up on threats as we move through the second week of the month. Some pretty good sized storms and plenty of members with multiple events. It's pretty uncommon for the eps to show this level of activity d10-15. If the h5 pattern sete up as advertised we're going to see a lot of big storms pop up in fantasyland on the ops. 18z Fv3 runs may become common. Classic torch a week before bomb pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Can we truly believe the potential this time around? No..no we can’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No..no we can’t All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 What do we have to lose!!! I'm going all in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I want to see those 60's verify first. The models have been busting high with temps all winter up to now. Is there going to be a warm up? Yep. But it appears transient and not as bad as we feared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 The only way that torch will be worth it is if a great pattern follows it because we're running out of time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 < Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can we truly believe the potential this time around? I believe we're headed towards the best pattern of the winter. Whether that produces or not is tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can we truly believe the potential this time around? The 60th time's the charm, so maybe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I believe we're headed towards the best pattern of the winter. Whether that produces or not is tbd We should know..... .....in about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: We should know..... .....in about 2 weeks. We might be shoveling inside of 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We might be shoveling inside of 2 weeks You gonna bet on that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: You gonna bet on that? Lol No but he’s clearly using his knowledge of the weather, particularly long range patterns, to make that assessment. Many respected Mets agree. Around 2/9 give or take a few days, may kick off the best sustained winter pattern we’ve seen since 2010-2011 around these parts. As bob said, will it produce for us? TBD. No guarantee any pattern delivers.... but I’d be shocked if we don’t see at least one or two more significant snowfalls in February. The wildcard is the SE ridge. Will it be kept at bay by a -NAO -EPO +PNA regime? Time will tell. One thing is for sure... it’s going to be very fun tracking the ~2/9-2/28 timeframe. Let’s hope at least one of those chances come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 At least war is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: At least war is gone I’m curious if the mjo trended worse, we will see when it updates, because that looks like a phase 6/7 fighting against the pattern. Everything has good blocking now and that amount of NAO should force the trough into the east more but the se ridge is fighting like hell on all guidance overnight. That could work if we get lucky with the waves on the boundary and timing with highs. Would rather see that ridge get squashed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I’m looking forward to a few days of warm weather. We typically get an end of January thaw for a few days to a week, but that hasn’t happened this year or last. And we often have a 70 degree day just before a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m curious if the mjo trended worse, we will see when it updates, because that looks like a phase 6/7 fighting against the pattern. Everything has good blocking now and that amount of NAO should force the trough into the east more but the se ridge is fighting like hell on all guidance overnight. That could work if we get lucky with the waves on the boundary and timing with highs. Would rather see that ridge get squashed though. 0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific. Looks not as good to me. The Pac will never cooperate. Not sure why HM would even use KU potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Looks not as good to me. The Pac will never cooperate. Not sure why HM would even use KU potential. He doesn’t rip and read guidance. If you knock down the se ridge that is a ku look. Or he might have meant for NYC to Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Looks not as good to me. The Pac will never cooperate. Not sure why HM would even use KU potential. He said that after looking at the 12z GEFS I think. It was a sweet look. Last couple runs are still okay, but not as good in the EPAC, and we see a bit of a SE ridge. As far as the Pacific never cooperating, I don't know about that. It's certainly possible it will continue to be an issue with the pattern overall. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific. My guess is members that don’t have as much NAO blocking have a monster eastern ridge that’s skewing the mean. If the blocking is real I bet that se ridge is muted more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My guess is members that don’t have as much NAO blocking have a monster eastern ridge that’s skewing the mean. If the blocking is real I bet that se ridge is muted more. Yeah I was just looking at the EPS temp anomalies which are a pretty good indicator. Fair amount of spread. Some members look pretty cold and others range from mild to a downright torchy look for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My guess is members that don’t have as much NAO blocking have a monster eastern ridge that’s skewing the mean. If the blocking is real I bet that se ridge is muted more. Meanwhile the GFS is trip'in ..... the SE with feet of snow. Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, frd said: Meanwhile the GFS is trip'in ..... the SE with feet of snow. Sure right where we want it #weeniehandbookchapter2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He doesn’t rip and read guidance. If you knock down the se ridge that is a ku look. Or he might have meant for NYC to Bos He’s talking about it on twitter this morning. Looking at the whole east coast I think. I’m excited for February. Think we’ll be busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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