Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Mjo update continues the good signs. Euro by far the best but the cmc, gefs, and cfs all get to phase 8 by day 16. Let’s say a compromise on timing between the euro day 8 and all else day 15 happens...I think sometime around feb 15-18 we actually finally see the long range good looks get unstuck and become reality. The euro monthly suggests the mjo then takes a nice slow tour of cold phases. If so Feb 20-March 15 would be promising. Late season sun angle issues noted. So each of these MJO runs sort of retreats into phase six before circling around and eventually heading into phase 8, where we want it. With the EURO forecast taking the less time, as I read it. If the EURO is right, would that shorten current warmup period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Mentioned a few weeks back that with this type of pattern (both sides PAC and atl) that we likely wont see nor do we truly want to see a super amped coastal low imho. Echoing my previous thoughts, history and past climo suggest that when we get a flat trof out west or a neg PNA ridge out of the SW with the PV or lobe still hanging around central Canada that gradient patterns are generally favored. We are now seeing some concensus that this is where we are headed after the end of this week. As some have mentioned, whether we can end up on the cold side or not tbd. A weak transient nao ridge can help in that dept we dont need a massive -nao that is sustained (I wouldnt kick it to the curb tho if it appeared). Forcing east of the dateline is going to juice the stj (think pineapple connection) and provide plenty of opportunities after this week. Could we fail in a wave train along the boundary? Absolutely. But I'm confident given recent past history of late season neg nao looks, past patterns with the neg PNA but the tpv still hanging around in part, and some semblance of a SE ridge keeping things from suppression that we havent seen the last or possibly the best that winter has to offer. A solid overrunning gradient situation can often yield a thump better than a true coastal....I will take my chances with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: He (don s) still calling for 21-25 in NYC. How much do they have now? 7.5 inches for the fall/winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 So that would still mean a great finish for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 7.5 inches for the fall/winter season.That would still mean a great finish for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 After lucking into snow so far this winter, it looks like the Feb. 10 to mid March period is going to offer more consistent and trackable snow chances. For me, the tracking this winter has been rather boring. That looks to change in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: So each of these MJO runs sort of retreats into phase six before circling around and eventually heading into phase 8, where we want it. With the EURO forecast taking the less time, as I read it. If the EURO is right, would that shorten current warmup period? No. The progression to the colder MJO phases is past the timeframe of the current warmup forecasts, even for the faster Euro. The loops in phase 6 that all show are correlative of the warmth we are about to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 @showmethesnow i agree with your analysis of the eps. It looks good day 10-15. What I was referring too was that day 10-12 looked good 48 hours ago and now that it’s day 8-10 looks like crap and the good luck is still stuck day 10-15. You’re right that there were positive trends within that day 10-15 period. I was only pointing out that as of right now the continued trend of the epo dominant pattern to shift the baroclimic zone nw as it gets inside day 10 has continued. But I also think that is going to stop soon. Note the loop back into 6 temporarily on the mjo the next few days. That stall in warm (just like all the other unusual mjo stalls) has been responsible for the latest head fake. But a new mjo wave is initiating in a few days and guidance all takes it into the promised land by day 15 and the trend all year once an mjo wave initiates is stronger and longer so if this repeats with this next mjo wave that looks to starts around 6/7 and head towards 8/1/2 we should have a nice Feb 15-Mar 15 period. As soon as the mjo gets out of destructive phases watch that good look suddenly accelerate towards us in time, maybe even skipping ahead like in early January. So I ageee with 100% of what you said. I was just highlighting why we have yet to see the good 10-15 looks progress but I expect that look to get unstuck and progress towards us very soon. The euro might still be fast with the mjo, all else is 5 days behind, so another 2-3 day delay wouldn’t shock me but within a week I expect to see better looks break inside the day 10 barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, das said: No. The progression to the colder MJO phases is past the timeframe of the current warmup forecasts, even for the faster Euro. The loops in phase 6 that all show are correlative of the warmth we are about to see. I think he might have been referring to the gefs and geps that show warmth lingering to day 16. I do think if the euro mjo progression is right day 10-16 is likely colder than the American guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, MDstorm said: 7.5 inches for the fall/winter season. 1.1 for meteorological winter. They(Central Park, the airports got less) got 6.4 from the November storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: he thinks we might be going into a new NAO era.. I can only hope. We are, at least in the means. My NAO formula which has 87% success indicated pre-season this would be a transitional year with a weakly negative NAO. We should continue trending in a more negative direction [in the means] prospectively. Note: the variance you see model wise is entirely MJO related. Again, VPM / z200 VP is most instructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 51 minutes ago, Ji said: He (don s) still calling for 21-25 in NYC. How much do they have now? ~8” I think. Pretty much nothing since November. My psu meteorology friends that live around nyc are having a pretty rough go of it but they’ve had the most epic run ever lately so I don’t feel too bad for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Isotherm said: We are, at least in the means. My NAO formula which has 87% success indicated pre-season this would be a transitional year with a weakly negative NAO. We should continue trending in a more negative direction [in the means] prospectively. Note: the variance you see model wise is entirely MJO related. Again, VPM / z200 VP is most instructive. Tom, that is very interesting about the NAO. Will you publish or release your research at some future date ? I am hopeful about the MJO, seems we might be in line for your window of potential cold/snow, after the warm up and speculating we advance more so into a conducive pattern for snowfall. And, in areas that so far have been lacking. Lastly, can you comment about the effect possibly in March , if any effect at all, regarding the volcanic eruptions in several VEI 3 volcanoes during the last 3 to 5 months I believe you follow this research. Do they have a role in the outcome of the strat this spring and even later in the year. I heard they have the potential to even change the NA pattern and have in the past causing changes to the SPV. Also the very periods in the past known as the years without a summer. Granted, we have not had an eruption(s) capable of that outcome yet. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I’m missing having the short-term thread, so can someone summarize what the next week looks like? There was a discussion of a possible rain snow mix around Thursday, then something next weekend, and then something around the 11th. Are we punting all of this until after the 13th? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Both the 12z GFS and CMC say with the passage of a cold front this coming Friday/early Saturday, the warmup is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I’m optimistic for Feb 15 on for the same reason I was pessimistic 2 weeks ago for the Jan 20-feb 10 period. A few weeks ago when a new mjo wave started to initiate into 4 and trend stronger that was an “oh sh!t” moment. The mjo trend all year has been stronger and slow and it’s been a main pattern driver. Bank in early January I said we will be ok “as long as we don’t see the mjo recycle right back into 4”. So when I saw that happen and guidance begin to respond with pattern degradation I couldn’t contradict my own analysis from earlier. Even if it meant going against my seasonal expectations. But here is what I see now. The first mjo wave of the winter season began in phase 1/2 and slowly toured 3/4/5/6/7 then died into 8. The next wave initiated in 4 and went strong through 5/6 and is now dying in 7. The next wave immediately initiates (same as 3 weeks ago) around 6/7 and heads towards 8. Following seasonal tendencies it should progress through at least 8/1 slowly through late February and into Early March. It probably will get into 2/3 before dying sometime in March. And if it dies in phase 1/2/3 we would likely experience lingering positive effects until the next wave initiated strongly unto warm phases. By then we’re talking mid/late March and who cares. Climo slams shut by then around DC and even up here it’s pretty iffy after March 15. So for much the same logic I became a deb around January 20 and dismissed our chances even in the face of some good long range looks, I now think we will likely see a good pattern and snow chances Feb 15 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Both the 12z GFS and CMC say with the passage of a cold front this coming Friday/early Saturday, the warmup is basically over. I’m optimistic and I don’t think the gfs has a clue so I don’t care but 12z was a bad run. The front clearing between storms is irrelevant if there is no confluence and the trough axis is west every storm will cut. And they did. The gfs cut 7 systems in a row to our northwest. A few had neussance frozen to start but it was 95% rain. Again I don’t put any weight at all into it. I’m not the least bit bothered by it. But at the same time the 12z gfs wasn’t a good run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I’m more bullish after the 15th but the fv3 shows how something the 11-15 could work. A little better block here forces that system out west to cut east under it which creates the suppression needed to get the next system under us but it’s delicate and tenuous and that could easily adjust NW without perfect timing and play between those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 This is kind of a legit -NAO at the end. (The Pacific might have more troughing near the Aleutians and less ridging so close to PNA region because of El Nino.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Looks like if we are going to score in the next week or so, we need a slider. After that, looks like a number of possible solutions where we end riding the taint line. If that's what it'll take to score, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Warm blob rejuvenation! https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Fv3 develops serious blocking day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Baby steps Right as gefs thinks we get to phase 8. If the gfs mjo progression speeds up to match the euro expect this look to come sooner also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Retrograde that trough near Alaska a tiny bit more and boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Last comment but I know the guidance has teased this all year. But if the current soi and mjo progression continues I think it’s legit this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 great runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 euro is snow to rain but its easily adjsutable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: euro is snow to rain but its easily adjsutable For which day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 For which day?Tuesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 FV3 paste job on the 10th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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