The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The mystical phase 8. 

I know you and Ji have been discussing this.. it doesn't matter right now. I saw the same thing in subsurface ENSO waves, they were 22/22 in moving with the North Pacific pattern until a few months ago. 

[BristowWx]

SE ridge seems to be a permanent feature on the 0z GFS.  It’s just there like family at Christmas.  

[Ji]

Incredible

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Incredible

That’s bad. Real bad.  0z have become the disaster runs.  Best to go to sleep on that map.  

[showmethesnow]

Not even going to try putting this...

On to this...

00Z GEFS

Guess I could mention the N Atlantic looks great but why bother. While others may be seeing trends with the GEFS all I see is a hot mess where the GEFS hasn't had a clue for several days now. It has been all over the boards with key features and can not settle down on a semblance of a solution. Now I could throw at you example after example of how horrible the GEFS has been but why waste the time. But I will throw up one thing that hopefully drives home the point that the GEFS is out to lunch.

This is yesterdays look at the upstairs over the pole.

Now 24 hours later this is what the GEFS decides to throw at us. Mind you these are ensemble runs not op runs. Though some variances are to be expected this is pretty much over the top.

 

Now I am sure some of you will freak out over this latest run just as you have for some previous runs these last few days. And it could very well be right. But if it is right it will be due more to blind luck then any skill at this point. So for Sanity's sake just do what I will do and have done for awhile now.

 

 

 

Note: Haven't had a chance to really look into the EPS but on the surface things look fine with the general pattern it has been advertising and there were actually some things I thought were promising in regards to storminess. Will try to post something a little later but may be pressed for time so don't think if no post is forthcoming that it is an indication that I think the EPS was a bad run.

[CAPE]

@showmethesnow

 Nice, if not depressing, write-up 

The decent NA is totally impotent given the rest of the pattern is garbage on those panels. I am purposely not saying much in here lately because there isn't a ton to like about the LR "trends". 

I think Chuck has been right. Its Nina! Except recently I think he has flipped to saying its Nino! lolz

As crappy as the GEFS looks, the EPS implies at least some workable periods, esp for the NW burbs. The cold anomalies have clearly been centered too far west on the means for many runs now though, the good -NAO looks have faded, and weaker blocking probably wont help much if the EPAC looks verify.

[showmethesnow]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@showmethesnow

 Nice, if not depressing, write-up 

The decent NA is totally impotent given the rest of the pattern is garbage on those panels. I am purposely not saying much in here lately because there isn't a ton to like about the LR "trends". 

I think Chuck has been right. Its Nina! Except recently I think he has flipped to saying its Nino! lolz

As crappy as the GEFS looks, the EPS implies at least some workable periods. esp for the NW burbs. The cold anomalies have clearly been centered too far west on the means for many runs now though, the good -NAO looks have faded, and weaker blocking probably wont help much if the EPAC looks verify.

Was just trying to decide if I wanted to write something up. Actually liked what I saw with where the EPS is moving over the last 2 days. Definite gradient pattern really showing through now with multiple waves running the boundary. Eps continues to move away from dumping too much energy into the SW and pushing it eastward. Seeing a much better look for having that boundary setting up farther south due to a combination of both the NS energy being allowed to progress eastward as well as a better press of the pv. Not sure I would be too concerned with the weaker blocking in the N Atlantic if we in fact see a semblance of a somewhat stable 50/50 that is being advertised at this time. That combo is much for forgiving then blocking on its own. Also like seeing the EPS start keying on a stronger EPO unlike the GEFS that has playing at Houdini with a disappearing act. IFFFFFF we could see that EPO shifted farther east on the EPS we are probably talking GAME ON in a big way.

All in all, what I saw overnight on the EPS was encouraging. Quick mention too, keep an eye roughly centered around day 12 over the next few days.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just trying to decide if I wanted to write something up. Actually liked what I saw with where the EPS is moving over the last 2 days. Definite gradient pattern really showing through now with multiple waves running the boundary. Eps continues to move away from dumping too much energy into the SW and pushing it eastward. Seeing a much better look for having that boundary setting up farther south due to a combination of both the NS energy being allowed to progress eastward as well as a better press of the pv. Not sure I would be too concerned with the weaker blocking in the N Atlantic if we in fact see a semblance of a somewhat stable 50/50 that is being advertised at this time. That combo is much for forgiving then blocking on its own. Also like seeing the EPS start keying on a stronger EPO unlike the GEFS that has playing at Houdini with a disappearing act. IFFFFFF we could see that EPO shifted farther east on the EPS we are probably talking GAME ON in a big way.

All in all, what I saw overnight was encouraging. Quick mention too, keep an eye roughly centered around day 12 over the next few days.

Yeah I was just quickly scanning through the EPS advertised h5 panels, and day 9 forward isn't bad at all. SE ridge flattens and the NA look is pretty good with some +heights over GL and persistent 50-50 low action. Not sure about the EPO ridge shifting- it seems to be pretty persistently too far west this winter- but if it did manage to shift a bit further eastward it could make a big difference given that NA look.

[poolz1]

Agree that the GEFS are pretty much worthless but 06z is looking a bit better.....Not believable except for the fact it looks closer to the EPS rather than moving further away.

I really dont think there is much doubt now about where the SOI is going in the midrange.  Looks like a big crash is on the way starting around D7.  You can see the  trop convection shifting east through the run....ending up over of just east of the DL.  IMO, this is enough of a change in the trop PAC to help shift the main features eastward (EPO ridge/West trough).  Would really like to see the models pick up on this but nothing to really hang your hat on yet.  But, if the crash is real...we should start to see the adjustments in the D10-15 here soon.  With the way things have worked out this season....I am optimistic but not holding my breath either. 

[poolz1]

 

[showmethesnow]

The GEFS and the EPS are worlds apart on the overnight runs. 

Notice on the GEFS map below where it places the core of the pv. This is effectively crushing the ability of any meaningful EPO to develop. 

00Z GEFS 500 mb

 

Now compare the above to the EPS at the same time frame. The main core of the pv is located just north of the Hudson Bay with a secondary located west of the Aleutians. This setup allows the EPO to develop and we are in fact seeing a strong one.

00Z EPS

 

Now I am going to sound like DT here. The GEFS is full of crap. Not buying it. It has sucked the last few days. And just to prove my point the latest GEFS run is just out. What we are seeing is that it made a move towards the EPS. Notice that the strongest core of the pv has now shifted towards the pole. This is allowing an EPO to develop though not as strong as the EPS. What I expect to see is that the GEFS will continue to move that pv feature towards more of an EPS look with the core centered in northern Canada (outlined in red).

 

06z GEFS

 

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@showmethesnow

 Nice, if not depressing, write-up 

The decent NA is totally impotent given the rest of the pattern is garbage on those panels. I am purposely not saying much in here lately because there isn't a ton to like about the LR "trends". 

I think Chuck has been right. Its Nina! Except recently I think he has flipped to saying its Nino! lolz

As crappy as the GEFS looks, the EPS implies at least some workable periods, esp for the NW burbs. The cold anomalies have clearly been centered too far west on the means for many runs now though, the good -NAO looks have faded, and weaker blocking probably wont help much if the EPAC looks verify.

The stj has behaved like a nino to some degree but the northern jet has behaved like a Nina. The conflict is likely due to the conflicting signals. The oni is +.9 which is firmly in weak nino but there are sst anomalies elsewhere that typically don’t accompany a nino and are throwing that off. Then there is the mjo. Dunno how much is cause/effect there but I do know a strong mjo phase 4-7 makes it hard to sustain a trough in the east so we keep seeing either a WAR or SE ridge fight and push the storm track to our NW with amplified systems. 

[nj2va]

Nice post @showmethesnow.  I was just browsing through the overnight EPS and thought it looked considerably better than the GEFS. Would each models depiction of the MJO be impacting the PV placement? My novice weenie thought is yes...Euro allowing for better ridging in the EPO/PNA domains with a MJO forecast to phase 8...thus displacing the PV east.  No clue if I’m interpreting things right though. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice post @showmethesnow.  I was just browsing through the overnight EPS and thought it looked considerably better than the GEFS. Would each models depiction of the MJO be impacting the PV placement? My novice weenie thought is yes...Euro allowing for better ridging in the EPO/PNA domains with a MJO forecast to phase 8...thus displacing the PV east.  No clue if I’m interpreting things right though. 

So with this said, is there any one family of guidance irt the MJO that has handled it better than the other? Or has the MJO forecasting been a complete fail this season?

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agree that the GEFS are pretty much worthless but 06z is looking a bit better.....Not believable except for the fact it looks closer to the EPS rather than moving further away.

I really dont think there is much doubt now about where the SOI is going in the midrange.  Looks like a big crash is on the way starting around D7.  You can see the  trop convection shifting east through the run....ending up over of just east of the DL.  IMO, this is enough of a change in the trop PAC to help shift the main features eastward (EPO ridge/West trough).  Would really like to see the models pick up on this but nothing to really hang your hat on yet.  But, if the crash is real...we should start to see the adjustments in the D10-15 here soon.  With the way things have worked out this season....I am optimistic but not holding my breath either. 

Don't think nor expect that we will get rid of the southwest troughing. Think that is a feature we will probably have to deal with for a good portion of the remaining winter if not all. This is not necessarily a bad thing though. In fact with our current setup this is probably a good thing as it hopefully puts into play the southern stream and all its moisture that it can provide. Now what I would hope to see in future runs is the EPO ridging start to roll over top more towards eastern Alaska/western Canada. This would give us a northern based +PNA over-cutting a -PNA (SW trough). Give us that and the look we are now seeing in the N Atlantic and we start pulling out our yard sticks.  Just kidding. Maybe? It would probably make for some fun times at the least.

[Danajames]

I think for the most part, the models do a decent job beyond 10 days recognizing pattern shifts that are coming but predicting specific storms?  That's high comedy.  They have enough problems 3-4 days out, let alone 2 weeks.   I have no doubt we'll get more cold air before the winter's over but whether that equates to snowfalls is impossible to predict.  I just wish it would stop raining.  And when I was listening to my weather radio yesterday, I heard those dreaded 3 words- STALLED OUT FRONT.  Just amazing to me that it would happen in the heart of winter but alas, here we go again with ripples of low pressure riding along it most of next week.  I wasn't upset so much about the milder temperatures coming but more rain?  The bane of my existence. 

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice post @showmethesnow.  I was just browsing through the overnight EPS and thought it looked considerably better than the GEFS. Would each models depiction of the MJO be impacting the PV placement? My novice weenie thought is yes...Euro allowing for better ridging in the EPO/PNA domains with a MJO forecast to phase 8...thus displacing the PV east.  No clue if I’m interpreting things right though. 

 

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So with this said, is there any one family of guidance irt the MJO that has handled it better than the other? Or has the MJO forecasting been a complete fail this season?

Is the depiction of the MJO impacting the models. Maybe? Probably? I tend to think so. Really, the MJO forecasts have been a mess for the most part. Even adjusting for common tendencies and bias' we have seen through the years on how the models handle it from run to run have been a Fail. Pretty much have thrown up my hands on the MJO and what to expect this winter.

[poolz1]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think nor expect that we will get rid of the southwest troughing. Think that is a feature we will probably have to deal with for a good portion of the remaining winter if not all. This is not necessarily a bad thing though. In fact with our current setup this is probably a good thing as it hopefully puts into play the southern stream and all its moisture that it can provide. Now what I would hope to see in future runs is the EPO ridging start to roll over top more towards eastern Alaska/western Canada. This would give us a northern based +PNA over-cutting a -PNA (SW trough). Give us that and the look we are now seeing in the N Atlantic and we start pulling out our yard sticks.  Just kidding. Maybe? It would probably make for some fun times at the least.

Thanks...I see what you mean.  That would probably be a more realistic evolution...considering where we are now.  Like you said...I would be fine with that and I would almost rather roll the dice with your description than with a classic PNA from the Baja to AK.  Keep throwing darts at us and sooner or later we will hit a good period...pos a great period if the NAO can truly tank.

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow @C.A.P.E.

This might get ugly for a while but I promise it will end with some hope  

I agree the gefs is lost right now. Not worth any more discussion. Toss it. I also agree the eps looks good day 11-15.  I think the idea of the epo gradient pattern is correct. The issue is what side do we end up on. Yes day 11-15 would indicate we get the boundary south of us but 2 weeks ago when the models did like the 3rd rug pull on the NAO I started tracking day 15-12-10-8 as benchmarks. The looks day 15 continue to consistently degrade. The degradation is most severe between day 12-10. 

This was day 12 two days ago 

and day 10 now

that has been happening all winter.  So until we see the good looks day 11-15 break into day 10 it’s simply not worth anything.  Notice the look still is more euro just shifted nw slightly so toss the gefs but the euro idea shifted NW is a cutter rain pattern.  

This seems mjo related imo.  When the mjo was in favorable phases in November and early December we had a great pattern.  Then the one time it briefly went into 8 the opposite bust happened and guidance missed the eastern trough from outside day 10.  The rest of the time it seems the guidance has trouble seeing or correctly factoring the influence of the mjo past day 10 so we see the guidance continually shift around day 12-10 as it “gets it”.  

The hope part is right now there is increasing probability the soi and mjo are heading towards favorable in 10-15 days.  If/when that happens this is likely to flip suddenly.  There is a model vs analogs war right now day 15.  Analogs for the expected tropical forcing coming are pretty good. The guidance as a whole is meh.  Usually in those situations the analogs win vs long range guidance.  That is assuming the tropical forcing does indeed shift but that looks good right now.  

So I am hopeful.  But I won’t say it’s likely to actually be moving closer until we see it break day 10.  I am pretty confident the pattern change actually is coming but I’m starting to get nervous it might be too late.  The clock is ticking, the earliest I really see it flipping is about the 15th but more likely towards the 20th.  We can’t afford to see that become any later than that.  

 

 

 

[MD Snow]

Anybody else think it’s interesting that the EPS has slowly moved more to the GFS look from a couple ago? Without crazy run to run changes. While the GFS has lost the look and seems to be struggling settling on a solution. This is why I’d lean more towards the eps right now.

 

Also, Like I and others have been saying, we’re probably gonna be dealing with some semblance of a southeast ridge and a boundary type  deal. This isn’t a shutout imo but it’s also not a slam dunk for our area. Favors northern md into the northeast for a slam dunk run...

[nj2va]

54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So with this said, is there any one family of guidance irt the MJO that has handled it better than the other? Or has the MJO forecasting been a complete fail this season?

I don’t think any have handled it consistently well.  I’d like to see the Euro’s depiction of the MJO continue (today isn’t out yet).  If it trends towards the GFS’ depiction, we’d be punting close to half the month of February probably.  

[CAPE]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but donsutherland1 posted an update of his winter forecast yesterday. Not surprisingly, it isn't great, and pretty much underscores the same issues we have been discussing here lately. Poor Boston lol.

[frd]

 

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned but donsutherland1 posted an update of his winter forecast yesterday. Not surprisingly, it isn't great, and pretty much the underscores the same issues we have been discussing here lately. Poor Boston lol.

 

His daily updates have been getting less and less promising.  Ironic because this year, and yes it's far from over, Boston was progged to have a very good winter, even better than we were.

So far we are doing decent ( DC centric I mean ) while those Boston folks are at all time record lows so far. 

I feel many were, and still are, hoping for a dramatic flip like 2015. You never know really what will transpire in the months ahead. Boston can score deep into March and beyond as you know.   

I am still optimistic and feel we have a flip to a much better pattern after this warm up. The models are a mess know and I am not going to go crazy about it. More clarity should arrive in a few days.  

I did find interesting though yesterday reading through HM feeds, ha ha , he thinks we might be going into a new NAO era.. I can only hope. The 1960's era would be acceptable. 

 

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

His daily updates have been getting less and less promising.  Ironic because this year, and yes it's far from over, Boston was progged to have a very good winter, even better than we were.

So far we are doing decent ( DC centric I mean ) while those Boston folks are at all time record lows so far. 

I feel many were, and still are, hoping for a dramatic flip like 2015. You never know really what will transpire in the months ahead. Boston can score deep into March and beyond as you know.   

I am still optimistic and feel we have a flip to a much better pattern after this warm up. The models are a mess know and I am not going to go crazy about it. More clarity should arrive in a few days.  

I did find interesting though yesterday reading through HM feeds, ha ha , he thinks we might be going into a new NAO era.. I can only hope. The 1960's era would be acceptable. 

 

 

As long as we are not in an undeniable and prolonged shutout pattern, and I don't see that happening, we will see more snow this month. Despite less than stellar h5 looks for the most part, the atmosphere has found ways to snow in this area in general, and Feb likes to snow on us historically. Unfortunately we are going to wipe out 5-7 days of it starting today.

[showmethesnow]

@psuhoffman I am not really sure that is a fair depiction above as we are seeing some changes in the upper latitudes that I think could possibly bode well for us.. The look that the EPS has been moving towards in this period of time is one of several reasons I mentioned earlier that roughly around day 12 is a period to keep an eye on. I know I said that the EPS is really hitting on a gradient flow but this period I think the EPS may be hinting at could be the exception.

Here are the 500's from 2 days ago.

Now compare to the latest run. We have a much stronger EPO trying to fold over the SW troughing and the lower heights in the general 50/50 region have migrated southwestward. These two features are backing the flow more so then what we are seeing from just two days ago. At this point I believe the EPS is hinting at/moving towards a buckling of the NS flow where we see an amplifying trough dropping into the central/eastern US. You can see hints of this with the higher heights now showing up the east coast possibly indicating future ridging ( which you would expect between an eastern trough and a 50/50). Stronger lower pressure heights migrating southward in the northern portion of the trough. As well as we are now seeing a much more discrete pv which is dropping much farther south. All these things tell me that the EPS may be latching onto the idea of a much deeper trough then now depicted with the possibility of an amplifying low somewhere in the east or off the coast. So the fact the EPS may be moving away from a gradient pattern and towards a deepening trough will impact the temps as the cold will tend to drop southward first before progressing eastward. 

 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Now compare to the latest run. We have a much stronger EPO trying to fold over the SW troughing and the lower heights in the general 50/50 region have migrated southwestward. These two features are backing the flow more so then what we are seeing from just two days ago.

showme I know you saw this, but what was encouraging to me was the run over run improvements/trends on the continued decline in the -EPO.  That bodes well for us. 

And your focus to on the 50/50 was also targeted yesterday by HM. We may end up with a better Pac then we think later in the month and a good Atlantic as well. 

Speculation I have is maybe we also get the MJO to slow in phase 8 through 2 , and yes that assumes I am thinking we do get there. 

[psuhoffman]

Mjo update continues the good signs. Euro by far the best but the cmc, gefs, and cfs all get to phase 8 by day 16. Let’s say a compromise on timing between the euro day 8 and all else day 15 happens...I think sometime around feb 15-18 we actually finally see the long range good looks get unstuck and become reality. 

The euro monthly suggests the mjo then takes a nice slow tour of cold phases.  If so Feb 20-March 15 would be promising.  Late season sun angle issues noted.  

[Delaware Valley Weather]

Looking at the vp maps on the gefs one would think that should argue for a trough farther east in North America.  Not sure if the gefs is picking up on Niño forcing here or just bringing the mjo into p8. Either way, having convection centered east of the date line should bring good things. 

[Ji]

[Ji]

He (don s) still calling for 21-25 in NYC. How much do they have now?