The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[frd]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Psu pointed out earlier that d11-15 has been degrading often as time moves forward. Undeniable point. Could happen again but it can also happen in reverse. The period around the big storm in Jan did that. That period looked horrendous when it was in d11-15. My intuition is telling me that d8+ is going to trend favorably. I may look like a fool in 10 days but I'll go down with the ship. If it works then I'll look smarter than I am. The really intriguing part about the long range is it already looks a lot closer to a period that can deliver than mid Jan. Plenty of time to discuss as we all enjoy some mild afternoons next week. 

Sounds great,  and works for me. 

Certainly possible by simple odds and the chaos theory the very opposite happens.  So maybe we get a great window. By the way,  I like how HM uses multiple posts to back up his insights and I never in all my 18 plus years of following him found he is either sensational or hyping potential. 

Thanks Bob !  I too look forward to a warm period and getting outside next week.   

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Sounds great,  and works for me. 

Certainly possible by simple odds and the chaos theory the very opposite happens.  So maybe we get a great window. By the way,  I like how HM uses multiple posts to back up his insights and I never in all my 18 plus years of following him found he is either sensational or hyping potential. 

Thanks Bob !  I too look forward to a warm period and getting outside next week.   

One thing that is very uncertain is if we do have an event or 2 in the next 2 weeks, will it be mixed or clean snow? My guess is anything strong/organized is more likely going to have ptype problems.

Walking the line comes with drawbacks. Not a lot of deep cold showing up. A moisture laden storm making a run at us may have no problem bullying the midlevels. I'm not picky though. I just want snow. A well timed weaker event or some luck with timing/transient 50-50 could deliver. Of course it's entirely possible ptype won't be a problem because it's too warm and all rain. Lol

[MD Snow]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing that is very uncertain is if we do have an event or 2 in the next 2 weeks, will it be mixed or clean snow? My guess is anything strong/organized is more likely going to have ptype problems.

Walking the line comes with drawbacks. Not a lot of deep cold showing up. A moisture laden storm making a run at us may have no problem bullying the midlevels. I'm not picky though. I just want snow. A well timed weaker event or some luck with timing/transient 50-50 could deliver. Of course it's entirely possible ptype won't be a problem because it's too warm and all rain. Lol

Agree about the temp/ptype issues. GEFS kind of points to a set up with plentiful precip but not deep cold for our area. This would favor areas north. This is why I think the coming period after Feb 8 favors northern md into the NE. I think a good bar to set is 1-2 more accumulating snow events between Feb 8 - Mar 20 for the sub, while we watch the northeast play catch up. Sure it could break in our favor but without deep cold I would lean against a snow on snow type set up or a winter run from Feb 8 on...

It's honestly an easy pattern to take sides on. Someone's gonna get a lot of snow. Could be us or it could be the NE. We'll know in about 2 weeks...

In other news, the FV3 still gets some pockets of freezing rain into northern areas on Wed. 

 

[TJ3]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

If you look at the top 10 DC snowstorms, most of them have been since 1979.  A lot of us on this forum have probably seen the majority of them. Although DC didn’t calculate well at National airport, 2016 was probably the biggest 1 time event for much of the forum. And that was just a transient -NAO.   I would call it a Winter if we could get 2’ at one time. We all are probably hoping for a HECS this year.  Or every year.  

I have been here for all of them and PD 1 is still what I am chasing. And what caused my snow issues. The depth of 2016 was close but nothing has come CLOSE to PD 1 rates. I was only 2 for Blizzard of 66. But by looking at my dads pictures, that storm is the champ for drifts around DC. 

[87storms]

For the east coast, this is a subpar winter in general, but I think this is turning into an average winter for our area, which is uncommon.  We’re usually boom or bust.  I think that’s what’s thrown people off more than anything.  That, and the fact that we’ve had so much precip over the last year.

[Maestrobjwa]

50 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

I have been here for all of them and PD 1 is still what I am chasing. And what caused my snow issues. The depth of 2016 was close but nothing has come CLOSE to PD 1 rates. I was only 2 for Blizzard of 66. But by looking at my dads pictures, that storm is the champ for drifts around DC. 

Yeah I've been reading up on that storm lately...those pics are amazing! (And I can imagine the forecasting pandemonium since they had only called for a few inches at best...lol)

[southmdwatcher]

This Winter has been nice for the majority of the forum, nice cold spells and snowfall. February certainly has the history of bringing the goods. Count me in for another PD1, no storm has matched that spectacle of cold smoke, wind and rates. Especially for DC and eastward to the Bay.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

This Winter has been nice for the majority of the forum, nice cold spells and snowfall. February certainly has the history of bringing the goods. Count me in for another PD1, no storm has matched that spectacle of cold smoke, wind and rates. Especially for DC and eastward to the Bay.

I'd sign up for that, as I live in that area now. I was a kid living in Carroll County then, and it was a pretty darn good storm there too.

[weathertree4u]

2 hours ago, Rvarookie said:

Maybe we give you like 1x question week? Just sucks to scroll through LR thread and then hit speed bump when I read your shit post. If you going to tweak least be good at it

Wow, how do you still have acess to the forum? 

[PCT_ATC]

3 hours ago, Rvarookie said:

Maybe we give you like 1x question week? Just sucks to scroll through LR thread and then hit speed bump when I read your shit post. If you going to tweak least be good at it

think he failed sandbox class.  Never could learn to play nice

[psuhoffman]

I wanted to break down the 18z gefs but I decided to only talk about the positives. 

I looked at the 18z gefs and 

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wanted to break down the 18z gefs but I decided to only talk about the positives. 

I looked at the 18z gefs and 

  That good, huh?

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wanted to break down the 18z gefs but I decided to only talk about the positives. 

I looked at the 18z gefs and 

I'll take the hit. Disaster.

Ground hog must know his shit.

[MD Snow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wanted to break down the 18z gefs but I decided to only talk about the positives. 

I looked at the 18z gefs and 

Really the last 2 GEFS runs. Funny how after this morning no one mentioned 12z or 18z...everyone's scared to be called a deb I guess. This sub sure has its moments...haha!

[psuhoffman]

Just kidding. It does look like poo though but I actually can see how it could flip. Decent blocking. Good 50/50. Trough gets east of Hawaii. Problem is it moves the trough over Alaska flipping the epo. If that trough ends up SW of Alaska instead...like the cfs and weeklies and mjo phase 8 analogs say then suddenly the whole thing flips around. The trough in the west undercuts east and it’s all good. So while the gefs looks awful in the east one adjustment would flip it positive. 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I'll take the hit. Disaster.

Ground hog must know his shit.

A lot of members snow on us day 8-11. But they do it with some jacked tracks. I’m not sure I buy 8” from a primary in Michigan. So I’m kind of eh on that. I honestly keep expecting that to shift nw again just like the last few times this same pattern looked snowy at range. 

After that as is it’s garbage. But if the gefs is off on the mjo maybe it’s messing up the look in the pacific. The Atlantic is good it’s just god the most awful pac imaginable. +epo/-pna on roids. Just have to hope it’s wrong. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just kidding. It does look like poo though but I actually can see how it could flip. Decent blocking. Good 50/50. Trough gets east of Hawaii. Problem is it moves the trough over Alaska flipping the epo. If that trough ends up SW of Alaska instead...like the cfs and weeklies and mjo phase 8 analogs say then suddenly the whole thing flips around. The trough in the west undercuts east and it’s all good. So while the gefs looks awful in the east one adjustment would flip it positive. 

 

Lol sure this or that can change, and it could look different. The only good thing I can say about it is it might not be right. Verbatim its completely awful though.

[AU74]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I've been reading up on that storm lately...those pics are amazing! (And I can imagine the forecasting pandemonium since they had only called for a few inches at best...lol)

I was 7 years old for the '66 blizzard and our Silver Spring neighborhood was buried. We had tons of fun tunneling through drifts.  The biggest one I can recall was about 8-10 feet tall and completely blocked access to the front porch and door of a good friend's house.  Another, in his backyard, was about 5 feet but was a consistent 5 feet all over his flat backyard, except the area right against the house which had so little snow you could see the grass.

[CAPE]

Leesburg can come for me now. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Really the last 2 GEFS runs. Funny how after this morning no one mentioned 12z or 18z...everyone's scared to be called a deb I guess. This sub sure has its moments...haha!

The gefs has been degrading the pattern towards crap for several days. Been a slow bleed. At first it was jumpy but now it’s settled on just plain bad.  I did see a way it could flip better if it’s epo idea is wrong but other than that our best hope is it’s just wrong.  Eps isnt like it so probably is wrong. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lol sure this or that can change, and it could look different. The only good thing I can say about it is it might not be right. Verbatim its completely awful though.

Yea if it’s right winters over. Simple. But I guess I was saying not sure I buy the epo flip. It did that a while ago and it never happened. Definitely not supported by the mjo if it really is heading towards 8. If the gefs looks like that again tonight maybe tomorrow the mjo update will show the gefs shifted to the gem/jma idea of cycling the mjo back into a strong 5/6. That would be a reason it might do that. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Leesburg can come for me now. 

This is silly. I’m going to try not to be repetitive but there is no reason to just ignore guidance when it’s bad. No one was saying anything about the gefs all day like it was the elephant in the room. Even if we’re going to toss it because it’s crap you still should discuss it and why.  

[BlueDXer75]

What does the EPS show the MJO heading? Sorry if it’s been discussed 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, BlueDXer75 said:

What does the EPS show the MJO heading? Sorry if it’s been discussed 

The mystical phase 8. 

[BlueDXer75]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mystical phase 8. 

Thanks!

[anotherman]

The mystical phase 8. 

May have to change the title of this thread to mythical if GFS is right.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is silly. I’m going to try not to be repetitive but there is no reason to just ignore guidance when it’s bad. No one was saying anything about the gefs all day like it was the elephant in the room. Even if we’re going to toss it because it’s crap you still should discuss it and why.  

Its all good. I still think the LR pattern discussion should be a separate thread like it was. That way folks who don't think there is much value in discussion of LR ens means can just stay in the short/medium range thread and discuss potential discrete threats inside of D10. 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its all good. I still think the LR pattern discussion should be a separate thread like it was. That way folks who don't think there is much value in discussion of LR ens means can just stay in the short/medium range thread and discuss potential discrete threats inside of D10. 

In fairness nothing past day 10 has verified this winter anyways. I think it is better to have it all combined in one thread. Talking past day 10 is just a general discussion. Any threats inside day ten have a legit shot at least.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

In fairness nothing past day 10 has verified this winter anyways. I think it is better to have it all combined in one thread. Talking past day 10 is just a general discussion. Any threats inside day ten have a legit shot at least.

It is still going to be discussed, and for whatever reason some folks seem to either get annoyed, flustered, or panicked about it lol.

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering that every good long range forecaster has pretty much blown this winter start to finish... I won't be putting anyone's thoughts above my own through the end of this season. I'm not insulting anyone by saying this. Not at all and I'm certainly not tooting my own horn because I don't even try to look beyond 2 weeks. It's been an incredibly hard year to predict beyond 7-10 days. Models have been equally as bad. I really doubt that changes until after this season is in the books. 

With all that being said... I'm unusually confident that we're getting more snow this year. Probably multiple events.

You can take this straight to the bank, with 7 percent interest.

It's backed by The Jebman.