The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro is probably being overaggressive in trying to overamplify the wave. Just my opinion and to far out to be talking specifics but when the amplify-happy gfs is a wave train and not amplifying things verbatim that's probably a red flag.

To be honest...the D5+ is so active I lose sight of comparing the right system between dif models.  To me it looked like the euro wanted nothing to do with the wave train idea but is focusing on a version of the gfs' D10 system.

[WEATHER53]

It’s been a good winter. I stated in our  long range outlook update in late November that the dye was cast for a lot of cutters. That has been the case but we have gotten good cold shots on the return flow as they depart and then solid highs setting up in right place where we have had two 10 hour plus events. What has prevented the winter from being even better is that those strong highs settle southeastward instead of moving off Maine and we get very mild.  We’ve been getting solid cold shots since early November and we have more to come.

 

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

It seems like DT is going to give the -NAO one more shot after warm up. If another false alarm, winter is ending early. 

Winter does not continue nor end based on WxRisk. Maybe you all can learn to assess situations yourself rather than rely on media sorts 

[Bob Chill]

Eps looks pretty solid d8+. Continues to paint an active picture with prolific snowfall on the cold side of boundary waves. D8-10 is only the beginning 

[Ji]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps looks pretty solid d8+. Continues to paint an active picture with prolific snowfall on the cold side of boundary waves. D8-10 is only the beginning 

i think we may as well just forget about the NAO. It looks like we are going to wrestle with a big time -EPO and we need to be on right sight of boundy like 2014. The good thing is that we are below normal temps through the end of the run despite the higher heights. Not your typical Nino Feb but snow is still is white lol

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i think we may as well just forget about the NAO. It looks like we are going to wrestle with a big time -EPO and we need to be on right sight of boundy like 2014. The good thing is that we are below normal temps through the end of the run despite the higher heights. Not your typical Nino Feb but snow is still is white lol

Big difference between Feb 14 or 15 showing up is the atlantic is worlds better even without a red ball over the davis strait. On the flip side the epo ridge is further west than those previous years so we better get some atlantic help.

I just now looked closely at the 0z eps run. Noise or trend... 12z is much better with the cold boundary further east compared to last night. I really like the 12z eps. Playing with fire in some ways but get things to line up right and it could be a snow blitz. Someone in the east is probably going to get plastered. I won't be upset if it's my yard. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think we may as well just forget about the NAO. It looks like we are going to wrestle with a big time -EPO and we need to be on right sight of boundy like 2014. The good thing is that we are below normal temps through the end of the run despite the higher heights. Not your typical Nino Feb but snow is still is white lol

What do you mean? It's certainly not off the table!

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What do you mean? It's certainly not off the table!

i mean the eps shows some blocking but its not that KU look with that closed ridge over Greenland that retrograded  west. But we plenty of cold and i think we are north enough to be frozen for most threats that start to happen past Feb 10. I agree with Bob...there is going to be alot of precip. Maybe Late Feb/Early March we can get a Classic Nino coastal lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

i mean the eps shows some blocking but its not that KU look with that closed ridge over Greenland that retrograded  west. But we plenty of cold and i think we are north enough to be frozen for most threats that start to happen past Feb 10. I agree with Bob...there is going to be alot of precip. Maybe Late Feb/Early March we can get a Classic Nino coastal lol

HM seems to think things could be trending neg nao. We can't rule that out at all right now!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

HM seems to think things could be trending neg nao. We can't rule that out at all right now!

it does look like on the EPS that a block starts to retrograde west. My guess is the EPO ridge is going to move east a bit too. It looks pretty stationary on the EPS assuming we get to phase 8 with MJO and soi goes negative..we probably will have the ridge in a better position

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean the eps shows some blocking but its not that KU look with that closed ridge over Greenland that retrograded  west. But we plenty of cold and i think we are north enough to be frozen for most threats that start to happen past Feb 10. I agree with Bob...there is going to be alot of precip. Maybe Late Feb/Early March we can get a Classic Nino coastal lol

Stop with the must have a KU look stuff man. We dont need a KU storm they are rare for a reason. A transient nao would suffice just fine with the active stj.

[Ji]

also...becareful with what you wish for with a PNA. Ive seen many PNA periods where we have cold and dry and we have to rely on a wave to do something from the northern stream. Now if we got a PNA/Split flow/STJ different story but too me EPO is more of a guarantee of storminess than a PNA

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Stop with the must have a KU look stuff man. We dont need a KU storm they are rare for a reason. A transient nao would suffice just fine with the active stj.

For me, the main reason I am curious about a KU is history...lol I wanna see it repeat itself for the third time!  (1899, 1979....2019?)

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

For me, the main reason I am curious about a KU is history...lol I wanna see it repeat itself for the third time!  (1899, 1979....2019?)

there has been way more KU's than that. I have seen like 8-10 once in a lifetime events in my life

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

also...becareful with what you wish for with a PNA. Ive seen many PNA periods where we have cold and dry and we have to rely on a wave to do something from the northern stream. Now if we got a PNA/Split flow/STJ different story but too me EPO is more of a guarantee of storminess than a PNA

Very true. I have seen a few years ago ( maybe it was longer though )   an off the charts -NAO, and  Don S ( who is almost always right ) stated we be in a window of much above normal snow ) Well , the block formed and retro'ed and nothing.  So a severe -NAO is not always a win. But, combine a form of NAO blocking with the wave breaking described by HM and the -EPO look with a lot of moisture and we can score going into a period like that , as well as in it too.  Still feel later Feb and even early March look good. 

Looking to see in 5 days where the MJO is and the trends in the SOI  to be a bit more confident post  Feb 15th.        

[jaydreb]

14 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

You should consider using banter thread, since your posts always seem to be emotional/stupid and really add no value. 

In fairness that’s true for like 80% of us.  

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I hear ya but damn he even fails at making quality emotional posts. Maybe Ji can give him some tips...

What are you talking about? Do I not ask plenty of questions? Why you're singling me out I have no idea. I've had a couple moments, but gosh I ask more questions than I do give analysis because I'm still learning (unless questions don't add value either)

And if you actually read my post in banter yesterday, you'd know what I am referring to. This winter is progressing in a similar way to those other two (at least in terms of snowfall). Just found the similarities uncanny, that's all. Get off my back.

[MD Snow]

GFS with a 1050 hp over the lakes at 156. Decent little shot of snow south of DC through 174. Less than 12z though. 

[WxUSAF]

Cranky’s view of the next 6 weeks

 

[snowmagnet]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Winter does not continue nor end based on WxRisk. Maybe you all can learn to assess situations yourself rather than rely on media sorts 

 Several years ago, DT had declared winter over near the end of February and we got at least 1-2 pretty good snow storms afterwards. I typically read his articles and watch the videos to learn things, but he has some arrogance issues. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ji@Bob Chill

great points. I debated not saying any of this but screw it...it’s not inherently negative, it looks at both sides so if some freak out because it’s not all roses so be it. 

I agree Bob wrt this eps run day 10-15. It’s a good look. The key is the lower heights over the west Atlantic. That’s (50/50) actually out top correlation to snow, even more than the NAO. It’s just usually the NAO is the function to get that look. But assuming it’s 50/50 lower heights are correct the degradation of the blocking anomalies aren’t as big a deal. 

I will preface what I’m about to say with the fact that I see signs this might change soon and I’ll explain why but one red flag keeps repeating. The looks day 11-15 degrade before they become 6-10 days.  It’s even worse on the gefs but that’s been a jumpy mess so just looking at the euro look how in just the last couple days a look outside day 10 degraded when it got inside day 10. 

became

and 

became 

I don’t want to make too much of this. It’s slight.  It was a bit more pronounced if you go back to when it was day 15 but I don’t have it saved.  A little less blocking and the SE ridge is less muted and we we end up on the wrong side. This is day 6-9. We still look good 11-15 but 6-9 looked good when it was 11-15 too. 

On top of that we have had several attempts at a snowy epo gradient pattern the last few years that looked good from day 10-15 become rainy.  Early last Feb sticks out and so does 2 weeks ago lol.  So call me skeptical right now.

But...skeptical doesn’t mean I don’t think it could work but I think the key is the mjo.  The two times it went into cold phases we got a trough into the east.  One of those times suddenly.  When it’s been in warm phases the good looks have been continually muted some as they approach.  I think this latest mjo stall (also a repetitive issue) has caused this fake out again.  

To sum it up I think if we ever get the mjo into phase 8/1/2 we will get the good look to move into reality and possibly suddenly like 3 weeks ago, but if the mjo continues to confound and stay in crap phases we will likely continue to see the cold shift northwest as leads shorten.  Right now guidance is trending towards the mjo getting to 8 in 11-16 days.  That’s a good sign.  Hopefully this doesn’t cause freak outs but I didn’t know a gentler way to say it.  

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

 Several years ago, DT had declared winter over near the end of February and we got at least 1-2 pretty good snow storms afterwards. I typically read his articles and watch the videos to learn things, but he has some arrogance issues. 

Considering that every good long range forecaster has pretty much blown this winter start to finish... I won't be putting anyone's thoughts above my own through the end of this season. I'm not insulting anyone by saying this. Not at all and I'm certainly not tooting my own horn because I don't even try to look beyond 2 weeks. It's been an incredibly hard year to predict beyond 7-10 days. Models have been equally as bad. I really doubt that changes until after this season is in the books. 

With all that being said... I'm unsually confident that we're getting more snow this year. Probably multiple events.

[Bob Chill]

Just for the mental exercise... turn that little red ball into a bigger red ball over the davis strait and the 50/50 will end up in a perfect spot.  The rain on the 11th would be a big snowstorm. That's how close some of these long range fantasy rain storms are to snow. There's a good example happening practically daily.

[MD Snow]

There we go...

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Stop with the must have a KU look stuff man. We dont need a KU storm they are rare for a reason. A transient nao would suffice just fine with the active stj.

If you look at the top 10 DC snowstorms, most of them have been since 1979.  A lot of us on this forum have probably seen the majority of them. Although DC didn’t calculate well at National airport, 2016 was probably the biggest 1 time event for much of the forum. And that was just a transient -NAO.   I would call it a Winter if we could get 2’ at one time. We all are probably hoping for a HECS this year.  Or every year.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Maybe we give you like 1x question week? Just sucks to scroll through LR thread and then hit speed bump when I read your shit post. If you going to tweak least be good at it

You tell me what the heck I did this time (or the other times, lol)...ya know what, never mind. Ya got a problem with my posts, take it up with the mods. Or use the ignore button

[snowmagnet]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering that every good long range forecaster has pretty much blown this winter start to finish... I won't be putting anyone's thoughts above my own through the end of this season. I'm not insulting anyone by saying this. Not at all and I'm certainly not tooting my own horn because I don't even try to look beyond 2 weeks. It's been an incredibly hard year to predict beyond 7-10 days. Models have been equally as bad. I really doubt that changes until after this season is in the books. 

With all that being said... I'm unsually confident that we're getting more snow this year. Probably multiple events.

I know that almost everyone called for a snowy east coast winter (except for maybe the Farmers almanac and the groundhog).  Learning from this forum really helps me to understand how difficult it is to try to make a long-range forecast, especially this year!  You would think that long range forecasts would get better over time!  I appreciate your optimism and also feel very confident in more snow this year! 

[psuhoffman]

I’m just as guilty as anyone so no animosity or hypocrisy here but how bout we all just talk about the weather and stop talking about how to talk about weather!  

[frd]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

turn that little red ball into a bigger red ball over the davis strait and the 50/50 will end up in a perfect spot.

I really hope HM is on to something.

If he is correct then what you are saying here will happen, once the models grasp what is going on in the NW Atlantic.   

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

I really hope HM is on to something.

If he is correct then what you are saying here will happen, once the models grasp what is going on in the NW Atlantic.   

Psu pointed out earlier that d11-15 has been degrading often as time moves forward. Undeniable point. Could happen again but it can also happen in reverse. The period around the big storm in Jan did that. That period looked horrendous when it was in d11-15. My intuition is telling me that d8+ is going to trend favorably. I may look like a fool in 10 days but I'll go down with the ship. If it works then I'll look smarter than I am. The really intriguing part about the long range is it already looks a lot closer to a period that can deliver than mid Jan. Plenty of time to discuss as we all enjoy some mild afternoons next week.