CAPE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is perfect Since you normally interpret it literally, I'll assume you mean perfect disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 GFS has the weekend system sliding south of us. Nice hit for central and southern va. Another low on its heels into the week of the 11th. Looks like a nice 4-5 day refresh then we are back to tracking threats. Happens nearly every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: GFS has the weekend system sliding south of us. Nice hit for central and southern va. Another low on its heels into the week of the 11th. Looks like a nice 4-5 day refresh then we are back to tracking threats. Happens nearly every winter. That south track is money at this range. I’m good with it. The second one looks good too with wedge but retreating H. Time for that to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Since I've brought the poor comments here re: GFS op runs lately the 12z is money for your area today...on more than one occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Since I've brought the poor comments here re: GFS op runs lately the 12z is money for your area today...on more than one occasion Not sure why everyone panics so much. I try to sail a steady ship. Who am I kidding I hit bottom daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That south track is money at this range. I’m good with it. The second one looks good too with wedge but retreating H. Time for that to get better. Time to seal the deal brother! Head to Lowe's and grab you a Craftsman. You're going to need it. The end of the run is very wet with cold air close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 We've had about 4 days of numerous globals showing a winter storm between feb 9-12. Today's 12z model's continue that idea. It's rare you have a consistent look like that across all guidance at 7-10 day leads. Just so people don't jump on me...I know all guidance hasn't had a storm every run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: We've had about 4 days of numerous globals showing a snow storm between feb 9-12. Today's 12z model's continue that idea. It's rare you have a consistent look like that across all guidance at 7-10 day leads. The big ones are sniffed out early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: The big ones are sniffed out early! That run was loaded with storm oppurtunities , only question is temps. Concur with Bob a lot of precip, and Canada is an icebox. Would not take much to score prior to Feb 15th. Earlier commnets I made were directed after Feb 15th as looking better still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I am almost looking forward to the torch this week. If we can get back on the board after this torch it will be like winter part deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: this is going to be like January....exactly a month ago...the meltdowns were epic led by the most sane people(BobChill). there was nothing good on the horizon....and then we got a DC metro MECS...and then arctic cold blasts...more snow.....etc. We are going to punt the first week of Feb and then get back into the fun and games. Will the real JI please stand up..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We just can’t see all the variables that go into influencing the atmospheric patterns. We are a long long way from that. We do the best we can but some things are hard to see and other times conflicting signals make it hard to predict outcomes and sometimes chaos just kicks our buts. Yes, but its that urge to understand more and better which has driven so much of progress in science and technology. I feel the same way he does. I burn to understand the why. I wish I could just wrap my hands around the MJO's metaphorical neck and scream in its face: "tell me y our secrets; why do you do the things you do?!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Makes total sense especially the bold. And your point about 10 days ago is true. But I do wish some would not read too much into comments I make specific to one thing. What I feared has happened. We are losing a chunk of Feb and we did get some snow but a good big storm pattern never developed. But I’m past that now. I’m hopeful it’s only a week we lose. Maybe the first half if the trough axis sets up too far west. We don’t know yet. I’m actually not down on February as a whole. Just because I was upset when the reality the Jan 20-feb 10 period was not going as I thought or hoped doesn’t mean I’m down in the rest of winter. And being down on one gefs run doesn’t mean I’m down on the pattern. Some comments are specific to one thing only and not meant to be expanded to a broader context. I know very little compared to you so take this for what it's worth. I actually feel that you tend to look on the positive side most of the time. This is not in any way dishonest. Its just that you, like everyone one else on this board is a snow lover, so you want to analyze how a pattern "could" work to get snow. There is nothing wrong with that at all, but I think that many, including me, have looked to your posts as a bulwark against the Debbies. So when you are negative, it is concerning. What I really care about is accuracy: positive, negative, or indifferent. So I urge to keep posting what you see. If the pattern is relentlessly negative, then your posts should be relentlessly negative (unless you start hating snow somehow lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 FV3 gets a mix into areas north of baltimore on Wednesday. Looks like another solid run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Yes, but its that urge to understand more and better which has driven so much of progress in science and technology. I feel the same way he does. I burn to understand the why. I wish I could just wrap my hands around the MJO's metaphorical neck and scream in its face: "tell me y our secrets; why do you do the things you do?!!!!" Yeah seriously!! Time to get a plane, fly to the Pacific and punch it across the face a few times...lol (I'm sure PSU would jump at that chance since it ruined his and many other's forecasts!) But you're right--the desite to understand said chaos drives innovation! (Was just reading an old CWG article about how badly forecast storms like the Blizzard of 1979 changed forecasting, lol Maybe now mets can look at this!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: this is going to be like January....exactly a month ago...the meltdowns were epic led by the most sane people(BobChill). there was nothing good on the horizon....and then we got a DC metro MECS...and then arctic cold blasts...more snow.....etc. We are going to punt the first week of Feb and then get back into the fun and games. That meltdown was me coming to terms with the reality that this winter was going to be more of an uphill fight than easy epicosity. I've been in a great place since that melt too. I also agree with your post. Nothing is going to come easy imho. Even after our mild spell. However, like I've been saying recently... we're highly unlikely to be done with winter wx. Even during the upcoming warm spell the whole north american pattern is one shift away from back in business. That's a lot different than where we were in Dec. North America was screwed for longer than any of us wanted to accept. So here we are... a stones throw away from hitting climo and it's Feb 2nd. The thing I like most about the upcoming period is if we can find ourselves on the right side of a gradient, there could be a proflific snow producing system without needing a bombing low pressure. A measly 1004mb poorly defined low with a moisture connection could drop a foot or more easy. Although still far from perfect, I currently don't see a tangible reason to be down on Feb as a whole. I'm very optimistic that we see more snowfall this month. Enjoy the warmth the next 3-5 days. We'll likely be tracking a discrete threat with our windows open sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I am almost looking forward to the torch this week. If we can get back on the board after this torch it will be like winter part deux I am too, but I’m glad it’s not going to be as long as we thought. We often have some very warm days before big snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: We often have some very warm days before big snow storms. This is very true. I recall several times the last 5 years where it was 45 to as high as 60 degrees, and then we got hit by a snowfall of 6 inches or more. Makes sense, that evolution depicts a frontal passage and then a follow up wave or some sort of over-running. This re-set is healthy in the end. Accept this and then prepare to shovel ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Euro coming on board for D9-10. May not be clean but a lot of juice and should be a lot of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Euro coming on board for D9-10. May not be clean but a lot of juice and should be a lot of frozen. Yea looks like 32 line running through dc at 240 with .25 line up by Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, J.P. said: Yea looks like 32 line running through dc at 240 with .25 line up by Baltimore. 850 or 2m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, J.P. said: Yea looks like 32 line running through dc at 240 with .25 line up by Baltimore. Actually fits well into what a lot of the ens have been showing as a most likely outcome.....Juiced up wave attacking the backside of an arctic high. We can do well in those if the timing is right....need the high to not run away with it's tail tucked. Verbatim...3-6" thump ---> ice ---> rain/dry slot. I'd be fine with that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Euro coming on board for D9-10. May not be clean but a lot of juice and should be a lot of frozen. Far away, but wow to all that moisture. As HM was talking about the -EPO and now the flow from the Urals/Europe effect on the SE Canada vortex escape. There is not a ton of distance on pushing the gradient further South and we are then colder. Interesting to see the EPS later . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 850 or 2m? Was referring to 2m. Just looked at 850, might be a hair north of dc. Not that we should take it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 It seems like DT is going to give the -NAO one more shot after warm up. If another false alarm, winter is ending early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Actually fits well into what a lot of the ens have been showing as a most likely outcome.....Juiced up wave attacking the backside of an arctic high. We can do well in those if the timing is right....need the high to not run away with it's tail tucked. Verbatim...3-6" thump ---> ice ---> rain/dry slot. I'd be fine with that.. Yeah, stout 1036H with a nice slug of WAA...being greedy but get that H a little further west and cold would really stay entrenched. 10 day OP so of course will change but there’s been a signal there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, stout 1036H with a nice slug of WAA...being greedy but get that H a little further west and cold would really stay entrenched. 10 day OP so of course will change but there’s been a signal there for days. There is a lot going on near and before day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, stout 1036H with a nice slug of WAA...being greedy but get that H a little further west and cold would really stay entrenched. 10 day OP so of course will change but there’s been a signal there for days. My thought exactly when thinking about how that run could have been money....Gonna change obviously but it's a pretty good signal for a big qpf maker and a big cold high in the vicinity. A lot of options on the table but good to see the euro op throw it's hat into the ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: My thought exactly when thinking about how that run could have been money....Gonna change obviously but it's a pretty good signal for a big qpf maker and a big cold high in the vicinity. A lot of options on the table but good to see the euro op throw it's hat into the ring. Euro is probably being overaggressive in trying to overamplify the wave. Just my opinion and to far out to be talking specifics but when the amplify-happy gfs is a wave train and not amplifying things verbatim that's probably a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Euro makes sense based on what GFS ensembles show. GFS is probably too suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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