Jandurin Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But in the end which verifies more accurately? The guy who pounds home the pattern tendencies over past 8 weeks and keeps nailing it or the guy who keeps saying it's coming it's just delayed every week for 8 weeks? This isnt a jab at anyone I want to hear what people think. I don't care who's more accurate. I care who can explain their reasoning. In your scenario, I'm assuming that both can. Person A though has nothing to share ever because all person A says is "the past predicts the future". I lived in the past, most of us did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 4 consecutive GEFS runs with a good upper air pattern building. The Greenland blocking starts building the entire run but the conus pattern doesn't get right until the fabled d10-15 range. Feb 7th front is slowly becoming a lock. After that has a couple directions. Ridging in the east may build back before getting knocked down again or once the Feb 7th front clears we stay near or below normal. Seeing the EPS take a significant run over run step towards the gefs was a relief. EPS normally does little baby steps each run but 0z was a legit "stride" towards a better upper air pattern moving in. I'm just hoping we can pull off at least 1 more warning level event in Feb. I'm very hesitant to believe we flip to epicosity before mid month then go on a heater. It's within the realm of possible outcomes but being conservative is probably the far smarter option. I'd say we'll know one way or another within a week. Heck with that. Last few GEFS runs are getting that classic look. It will be mid Feb... KU baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I keep thinking back to Feb 2015. We sucked an egg worse than this year until "the front" and stable pattern set in for the next 5 weeks. I'm absolutely not saying that I believe we're walking into that. Just pointing out that mid Feb is absolutely not too late for an extended and severe winter period. Last year was too little too late for the close burbs and cities. Flipping to a stable blocked and favorable north american pattern is still within the envelope of possible outcomes. We didn't even know things might get good back in 2015 until the first week of Feb and even then it initially looked more like a transient shot but things evolved far differently. Don't read between the lines though. I'm not implying that I think we are staring down the barrel of a 180 flip and multiple storms. Just saying that it really is too early to just punt this winter and say it has no chance at becoming something memorable. For those who are still interested in tracking winter wx this year there are a lot of things to pay attention to coming up over the next 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I replied to Bob's post from the previous page and didn't see the HM tweet post till now, lol. Well damn, if he is thinking potential KU... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I replied to Bob's post from the previous page and didn't see the HM tweet post till now, lol. Well damn, if he is thinking potential KU... I think the big thing that killed sentiment this year were all the big forecasts in preseason. We're actually having a pretty normal so so winter and it's already better than the recent group of dung piles we do so well. If preseason said the pac is going to suck and it's not going to be cold in Dec/Jan then there would be a completely different take so far. The northern tier has a legit gripe. Not saying they don't. Heck, it's almost always my yard getting the bad breaks while the northern crew is posting about getting raked and roads caving while I'm watching my light snow melt on contact. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the big thing that killed sentiment this year were all the big forecasts in preseason. We're actually having a pretty normal so so winter and it's already better than the recent group of dung piles we do so well. If preseason said the pac is going to suck and it's not going to be cold in Dec/Jan then there would be a completely different take so far. The northern tier has a legit gripe. Not saying they don't. Heck, it's almost always my yard getting the bad breaks while the northern crew is posting about getting raked and roads caving while I'm watching my light snow melt on contact. lol. Yeah as I recall you were in the greater DC snow hole last winter. I did okay here, a tad over climo. This winter has sucked overall here but I wont complain much. It doesn't do any good lol. My gut says we finally get our 2-4 week "good" pattern with multiple chances. Hopefully we score a couple, and maybe even a whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah as I recall you were in the greater DC snow hole last winter. I did okay here, a tad over climo. This winter has sucked overall here but I wont complain much. It doesn't do any good lol. My gut says we finally get our 2-4 week "good" pattern with multiple chances. Hopefully we score a couple, and maybe even a whopper. Interestingly there is little spread at the end of the gefs. It's pretty much unanimous that we are solidly back in a winter pattern before mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Interestingly there is little spread at the end of the gefs. It's pretty much unanimous that we are solidly back in a winter pattern before mid month. Hopefully we are tracking a storm during our shutout period and not a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I keep thinking back to Feb 2015. We sucked an egg worse than this year until "the front" and stable pattern set in for the next 5 weeks. I'm absolutely not saying that I believe we're walking into that. Just pointing out that mid Feb is absolutely not too late for an extended and severe winter period. Last year was too little too late for the close burbs and cities. Flipping to a stable blocked and favorable north american pattern is still within the envelope of possible outcomes. We didn't even know things might get good back in 2015 until the first week of Feb and even then it initially looked more like a transient shot but things evolved far differently. Don't read between the lines though. I'm not implying that I think we are staring down the barrel of a 180 flip and multiple storms. Just saying that it really is too early to just punt this winter and say it has no chance at becoming something memorable. For those who are still interested in tracking winter wx this year there are a lot of things to pay attention to coming up over the next 1-2 weeks. Mid Feb and early March is not too late. Some have this notion that the season is a linear progression. Early feb is the time that the jet is most likely to buckle south of us over the long term. But we have had plenty of cold intrusions into March even recently. It amazes me when I hear arguments things are impossible we just experienced. The mean is just a bunch of anomalies averaged together. Yes a winter period becomes less likely the further past feb 15 we get but it doesn’t hit the cliff until about mid March. Frankly a deep winter pattern is unlikely at any week. People exagerate how bad late feb and early March is wrt sun angle. Yea if it’s 42 and sunny your 4” will be gone. Guess what if it’s 42 and sunny in January it will melt too. We are simply too warm 90% of the time and don’t get enough to hold snow over. But when we do get a rare cold and enough snow period late it can hold. PD2 proved that! It’s just rare. But that’s rare at any time. I can only think of a handful of times we had a ton of snow and held it more than a few days even in mid winter. That’s just not how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly there is little spread at the end of the gefs. It's pretty much unanimous that we are solidly back in a winter pattern before mid month. Hopefully we are tracking a storm during our shutout period and not a pattern May have just started today... lol. Really close this run but I highly doubt we flip into a storm on the 7th. Interesting though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: May have just started today... lol. Really close this run but I highly doubt we flip into a storm on the 7th. Interesting though... There is a lot of red in Canada showing up by HR 168. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: May have just started today... lol. Really close this run but I highly doubt we flip into a storm on the 7th. Interesting though... Knowing the WAR tendency the last few years that will end up 200 miles further NW. Probably need to add 3-4 days. I would say by 2/12 we are in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: May have just started today... lol. Really close this run but I highly doubt we flip into a storm on the 7th. Interesting though... That was there last run too just a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: There is a lot of red in Canada showing up by HR 168. Interesting times ahead. Yea, it's universal too. Gets started early around greenland and just gets stronger as time goes on. All ops have similar looks. Longshot but it's possible the -nao builds stronger/earlier and does force the d9-10 deal under us. Curious what the eps shows shortly for that period. My gut says little if any chance but beyond that keeps looking better and better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: That was there last run too just a little north. Yea, flipping from a warmish shutout regime into a coastal is something that we do like... almost never. lol In response to your other post. I don't care what anybody thinks about how winter is. I'm a prolific poster here in the winter for 1 reason and that's to track patterns and snowstorms. I don't give up until it's lights out sometimes in March (or earlier if we're basking in a SE ridge with no hope). I'll get just as excited for a nice event in March as any other winter month. The only time this place gets on my nerves is when something is interesting and worth discussing but there's a machine gun of worthless posts complaining about basically everything without actually adding any analysis. I'm just trying to discuss something I enjoy doing and when it gets unreadable with immature emotional posts it goes against the entire reason why everyone is here in the first place. The part of this hobby that brings me the most joy is tracking an event, watching it fall, and recording the stats in my seasonal log. If it melts in 24 hours it takes away like 10% of the fun for me. Maybe we need an extra thread for each storm specifically designated for immature, emotional, and baseless posts. Misery loves company so they can have at it. The only company I want is with rational people who enjoy discussing the technical details of why a pattern or storm may or may not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 According to the EURO my high temperatures for January 31 - February 6th will top out in the 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s (twice), 60s, and 70s. Each day will be warmer than the last with the high temperatures ranging from 23 to 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Heh. This EPS run looks to be heading for a nice look after the 8th or so once the western trough rolls east. Stronger -NAO and a bridge to the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I think we could roll with this the last half of the month. SE ridge seems to wane and flex throughout the run but up top the look looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Man this thread is like a slow moving coastal today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ji said: Man this thread is like a slow moving coastal today Shouldn't you be outside shoveling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Shouldn't you be outside shoveling? He makes his wife do it he's already looking for the next snow on the internets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: He makes his wife do it he's already looking for the next snow on the internets He only shovels 6” or greater. Any less is nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The long range looks super active. Man I hope we can be on the winning side a few times over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Looks like we should have several chances with a gradient type pattern look and an active SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The long range looks super active. Man I hope we can be on the winning side a few times over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Looks like we should have several chances with a gradient type pattern look and an active SS. In a winter where not much has been dependable, that beast of a southern stream has been a constant! You would think 3-4 weeks in a favorable pattern should yield dividends that have no shortage of moisture! Please oh please, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...first time in days I've looked at long range . Gefs has some nice hits day 8-9+ Starting to see some clarity with the gefs and eps mostly agreeing on the progression. The d8-9 deal is tricky to work out. Need 2 closely spaced waves with the first one creating confluence for the second one. If it's just one consolidated and healthy storm then we need the nao to go apeshit. I can envision a potential forum divider though. Lol. For my yard it looks like pretty low odds in general. I have a hunch SNE gets their first good hit of the year inside of 10 days. Just a guess and taking the typical carving process into consideration After whatever happens in that period there appears to be a short 2-3 day window with ok temps. Anyone's guess but the mixed events showing up from time to time on the ops makes the most sense to me and not a clean storm if we get any wintry precip at all. It looks like a transient cool/cold shot and ens means show one more dig in the west before everything rolls forward and actually looks really good right now. D10-15 on the eps and gefs are the typical shotgun style with snowfall. No consensus with timing. Just shows we have a better than zero chance. Another day in the books with ensembles and it keeps looking better once we approach mid Feb. So far there has been no can kicking or red flags showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 What a fv3 weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: What a fv3 weenie run Meh. Move the LP in the first of those KUs 50 miles south and I'd agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: What a fv3 weenie run Only 12-15" for the entire run. Your standards have decreased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Next up- Feb 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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