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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Day 8 to Day 10 looked to me to have a lot of hits (can't see temps yet) on the EPS.  Basically either a west track or a MA special.  Not many full coast storms. 

 

Overall there isn't much change that I can see other than some noise on the EPS.  Another good run to my eyes.

Agreed. The thing that makes it a little dicey (trough axis in the west) is the same thing that makes it an active pattern. Our area is in the crosshairs for precip. Temps are a riddle and I'm not going to dig into that stuff much but the really short version of the EPS is it's far more likely that we get additional frozen precip than all rain over the next 2 weeks. If we end up on the right side of something it could be a significant event. The window starts around thurs/fri next week and continues into the foreseeable future. Decent run. 

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LP08

LP08

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. The thing that makes it a little dicey (trough axis in the west) is the same thing that makes it an active pattern. Our area is in the crosshairs for precip. Temps are a riddle and I'm not going to dig into that stuff much but the really short version of the EPS is it's far more likely that we get additional frozen precip than all rain over the next 2 weeks. If we end up on the right side of something it could be a significant event. The window starts around thurs/fri next week and continues into the foreseeable future. Decent run. 

Yup.  I think I will take my chances because that ridge into Alaska is still allowing Canada to be frozen for the forseable future.  It wouldn't take much once we get into specific threat range to get something under us with lots of cold lurking. 

 

I've come to the conclusion that we wont have a 4 week stretch of awesome pattern with chance after chance (famous last words, lol)  but this year we seem to be maximizing windows.  With a little -NAO help, we could really get a nice storm before it wanes again.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, frd said:

Bob, is the idea still the trough axis proceeds East in time?  ( from the end of the run )   

It is carving eastward d10-15. I'm mostly focused on the d8-12 window. Very active. Someone in the east is going to get a lot of snow in the next 2 weeks. I do feel confident about that. It's the opposite of a dry pattern and it's not a warm pattern either. I think SNE may make a violent comeback here before too long. Our area looks to be fine as well. There's a cluster that stripes NC/SoVA as well. Win, lose, or draw... this thread is going to be very busy over the coming week to 10 days and maybe beyond. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

It is carving eastward d10-15. I'm mostly focused on the d8-12 window. Very active. Someone in the east is going to get a lot of snow in the next 2 weeks. I do feel confident about that. It's the opposite of a dry pattern and it's not a warm pattern either. I think SNE may make a violent comeback here before too long. Our area looks to be fine as well. There's a cluster that stripes NC/SoVA as well. Win, lose, or draw... this thread is going to be very busy over the coming week to 10 days and maybe beyond. 

Thanks !

Do you think if the -NAO comes along in real time and stronger (say mid Feb to the third week )  that the odds are raised for storms being  more Philly, DC and Norfolk centered versus what you see on some ensembles today that favor more so  New England? Thanks  ( I do realize thats a tough question just wondering though ) 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, frd said:

Thanks !

Do you think if the -NAO comes along in real time and stronger (say mid Feb to the third week )  that the odds are raised for storms being  more Philly, DC and Norfolk centered versus what you see on some ensembles today that favor more so  New England? Thanks  ( I do realize thats a tough question just wondering though ) 

Beats me. The atlantic in general looks the best it's looked since 2011 imo. Nice confluence, ridging into GL, and low heights sprawling towards the azores. It's been a really long time since we've had that config during DJF. 

This is the 5 day mean for D10-15:

nO3deOf.jpg

 

And here's where the EPS ends (trough axis is further east than the last panel of 0z)

1OiffdS.jpg

 

You're not going to hear me complain one iota about what the EPS is showing. Canada is mostly an icebox, the WAR is obliterated, confluence to our north, cold air lurking, and above normal mean QPF for D8-15 (over 1"). I'm sure someone will find a reason to complain but I'm not one of them. 

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd also say the -NAO looks a little better on the 12z eps. Nice bend in the isobars over greenland with BN heights underneath in the atlantic. Still washed out a bit on the means but I don't think anyone is going to complain about this EPS run. Surely not a step backwards. 

You nailed all of it so I’m just going to endorse your analysts and see you all at happy hour. 

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LP08

LP08

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Day 8 to Day 10 looked to me to have a lot of hits (can't see temps yet) on the EPS.  Basically either a west track or a MA special.  Not many full coast storms. 

 

Overall there isn't much change that I can see other than some noise on the EPS.  Another good run to my eyes.

 

Edit:  Also a slight signal around 13th-15th as well. Same as 0z it seems.  The only thing that jumps at me is the -NAO is centered more over Greenland than over the davis straights.

24 HR precip from the EPS around the 15th.  No shortage of precip that's for sure.

EPS 24 HR Precip Feb 15.png

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

After we all took a night off I woke up to all those panic posts then looked at the actual guidance and was wtf.  

Quite frankly it just throws me off when scrolling through the board some of these mornings...All the "this is garbage" post got me like "Wait, what?" Which is why I lean on you and Bob's posts the most (and I'm slowly learning how to look at the 500 panels and such, but not there yet!)

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

After we all took a night off I woke up to all those panic posts then looked at the actual guidance and was wtf.  

Same here.  I read through the stuff yesterday afternoon that looked quite good.  Checked earlier this morning and saw only a few additional posts, mostly saying how the 00Z suite looked like crap, etc., etc.  Then read what @showmethesnow followed up with and also looked at some of the ensemble stuff myself and thought "dafuq is going on in here?!"  Thank goodness for those who offer more level-headed and reasoned analysis!  I didn't get the dumpster fire posts.  Now to be fair, the way even the ensembles (at least the GEFS) have jumped around every 6 or 12 hours doesn't lend a lot of confidence in the ~d10+ range, but I still didn't get the cliff jumping.

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jaydreb

jaydreb

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

One thing I notice on the op runs is the front just not wanting to push through.  Next week will test our resolve if it doesn’t push through.  Spring time temps.  All week. 

GFS says break out the shorts and flip flops next Friday.   The front never makes it through even into the following week.  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GFS says break out the shorts and flip flops next Friday.   The front never makes it through even into the following week.  

Yes let’s just pretend that run never happened.  If it did happen like that I will need to get the lawn mower ready for the season.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sorry.  But that was one ugly run right up to PD.  Shouldn’t have looked at it. It’ll be fine. 

It’s not that far off from the good runs. It just retrogrades the epo ridge even more and went ape with the west coast trough which pushed the boundary about 200 miles north in the east. Northern PA north gets blasted instead of us. It could go down that way. Or not. We don’t know yet but it wasn’t a wholesale pattern change just shifted some key things slightly the wrong way. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

One thing I notice on the op runs is the front just not wanting to push through.  Next week will test our resolve if it doesn’t push through.  Spring time temps.  All week. 

I thought we already punted next week and the really good pattern starts around the 10th give or take a day?

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s not that far off from the good runs. It just retrogrades the epo ridge even more and went ape with the west coast trough which pushed the boundary about 200 miles north in the east. Northern PA north gets blasted instead of us. It could go down that way. Or not. We don’t know yet but it wasn’t a wholesale pattern change just shifted some key things slightly the wrong way. 

Roger.  It’s easy to panic when the winter runway is becoming shorter.  I know what’s at stake.  That boundary means the difference between deep winter and deep depression. 

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luckyamaha

luckyamaha

Posted
Posted

Why does the GFS still get mentioned when it flip flops from every 6hr run? Now sure 24hrs ago it did not show 70s for all of va, now it does? Also it's just wretched and biased on temps. Toss and forget it. Look to the FV3 since the Gov has been open

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

We did.  But wasn’t considering the following week.  Could be noise like PSU said.  

I wouldn't disregard the OP completely as it is a possible solution but I also wouldn't put too much stock into the LR op either. Late next week into next weekend will be judgment day.....if we get to next weekend and have delayed the good pattern looks and neg NAO yet again, then I think the script may have reached its final act. Not saying we cant get a surprise encore but let's get thru the thaw next week first then see how things look by next Thurs or Fri. Til then I think we are all throwing darts while blindfolded. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I wouldn't disregard the OP completely as it is a possible solution but I also wouldn't put too much stock into the LR op either. Late next week into next weekend will be judgment day.....if we get to next weekend and have delayed the good pattern looks and neg NAO yet again, then I think the script may have reached its final act. Not saying we cant get a surprise encore but let's get thru the thaw next week first then see how things look by next Thurs or Fri. Til then I think we are all throwing darts while blindfolded. 

I agree.  The op just gave me pause as to what could happen.  I know anything could happen.  But if the whole setup is a see saw then the the fat kid on the left side decided not to budge and fell asleep on that run. 

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