The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seeing a lot of mixed events on the GEFS after the mini torch. Can't drill down that far with the EPS beyond d10 but I'm sure there are plenty there too. If we do get 1-2 mixed events your climo could easily work in your favor compared to cities/burbs. 

I want to be careful how I word this because sometimes I say something is a red flag and people think the sky is falling.  This is not the best sign and its something that troubles me, but I am not saying thats it, game over either...  BUT 24-36 hours ago the GEFS was really targetting the day 8-10 period for snowfall in our area.  I never really bought into it but once again it has shifted that well to the northwest the last few runs as the blocking during that time becomes less ideal.  Still not a bad NAO but not good enough to overcome the problems in the PAC.  That has been the trend ever since the last pattern change.  Everything keeps shifting NW as the blocking looks great at range then becomes only so so in reality.  The next "good" window on both the GEFS and EPS looks to be day 10-15.  I want to see that NOT start to degrade and shift northwest as it comes into the day 10 range.  If in the next 24 hours we start to see the same happen to that period I will start to become convinced we are just getting teased the exact same way we were the last 2/3 times guidance tried to say a -nao driven pattern was on the way.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I want to be careful how I word this because sometimes I say something is a red flag and people think the sky is falling.  This is not the best sign and its something that troubles me, but I am not saying thats it, game over either...  BUT 24-36 hours ago the GEFS was really targetting the day 8-10 period for snowfall in our area.  I never really bought into it but once again it has shifted that well to the northwest the last few runs as the blocking during that time becomes less ideal.  Still not a bad NAO but not good enough to overcome the problems in the PAC.  That has been the trend ever since the last pattern change.  Everything keeps shifting NW as the blocking looks great at range then becomes only so so in reality.  The next "good" window on both the GEFS and EPS looks to be day 10-15.  I want to see that NOT start to degrade and shift northwest as it comes into the day 10 range.  If in the next 24 hours we start to see the same happen to that period I will start to become convinced we are just getting teased the exact same way we were the last 2/3 times guidance tried to say a -nao driven pattern was on the way.  

I'm expecting things to trend colder before day 10. Might not mean snow either way but the gefs is all over the place with the MJO and current forecast looks suspect at best. EPS is more steady with the MJO and the progression is more believable. Choosing between the gefs/eps right now is easy. I'll take the eps this go around. I expect the gefs to trend at least a little colder/better over the next 5 days. Just a hunch. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the upcoming "transition" is impossible to predict at this point. Not like we have seen much skill beyond 10 days this year but it looks more like a mud bog instead of the usual "muddy" picture. Once some sort of clarity emerges I'll dig deeper. Right now the run over run changes we're seeing across the board are basically telling us to not even try to guess at timing/outcomes etc. 

I probably should have called the 12z GEFS ambiguous and not garbage.  Actually through day 14 its snowier than the last 2 runs.  LOL  I am not going to waste anymore time on it but I am going to assume given this is what was true the last few runs its getting that conflicting signal through extreme variance within.  Some great members with epic snow and some absolute crap members with eastern torch solutions.  That would account for the weird looking h5 also..some great blocking members and then some not good ones with a huge eastern ridge.  So in the end its a useless "maybe one or the other extreme" run.  But it's not really the models fault.  Its not THAT crazy far apart its just that one really key factor will have a HUGE affect on the longwave pattern for our specific area and so minor disagreement on that feature (NAO) causes a huge swing in the results within the members.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I probably should have called the 12z GEFS ambiguous and not garbage.  Actually through day 14 its snowier than the last 2 runs.  LOL  I am not going to waste anymore time on it but I am going to assume given this is what was true the last few runs its getting that conflicting signal through extreme variance within.  Some great members with epic snow and some absolute crap members with eastern torch solutions.  That would account for the weird looking h5 also..some great blocking members and then some not good ones with a huge eastern ridge.  So in the end its a useless "maybe one or the other extreme" run.  But it's not really the models fault.  Its not THAT crazy far apart its just that one really key factor will have a HUGE affect on the longwave pattern for our specific area and so minor disagreement on that feature (NAO) causes a huge swing in the results within the members.  

Safe to assume that this is the reason the GEFS never looks all that great:

 

 

EPS/CFS look far better with a trip to 8 within 2 weeks. EPS and CFS guidance reflects that as well weeks 2-3. I'll wait until either the CFS or EPS moves away from this before taking the GEFS seriously. 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm expecting things to trend colder before day 10. Might not mean snow either way but the gefs is all over the place with the MJO and current forecast looks suspect at best. EPS is more steady with the MJO and the progression is more believable. Choosing between the gefs/eps right now is easy. I'll take the eps this go around. I expect the gefs to trend at least a little colder/better over the next 5 days. Just a hunch. 

I tend to agree with that... The GEFS was going nuts into phase 7 a month ago and was wrong and the Euro progression seems more realistic.  just saying if guidance in general degrades that period again... that would be an uh oh and I would probably start to believe we are never going to get the true blocking we need this winter.  Still wont mean close up shop no chance for snow...but we would be fluke storm hunting not epic pattern hunting from then on out.  Many probably are already just fluke storm hunting... since I am still 28" short of climo I am kinda still epic pattern hunting for personal imby reasons.  Just don't want to let go of beating climo yet...but its slipping away fast if we dont get into a good pattern soon.  I wont nickel and dime my way or one storm fluke my way to climo from where I am now up here.  

[Wonderdog]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I probably should have called the 12z GEFS ambiguous and not garbage.  Actually through day 14 its snowier than the last 2 runs.  LOL  I am not going to waste anymore time on it but I am going to assume given this is what was true the last few runs its getting that conflicting signal through extreme variance within.  Some great members with epic snow and some absolute crap members with eastern torch solutions.  That would account for the weird looking h5 also..some great blocking members and then some not good ones with a huge eastern ridge.  So in the end its a useless "maybe one or the other extreme" run.  But it's not really the models fault.  Its not THAT crazy far apart its just that one really key factor will have a HUGE affect on the longwave pattern for our specific area and so minor disagreement on that feature (NAO) causes a huge swing in the results within the members.  

I was gonna say that the look at 12z was more se than the last few runs around 2/8-12.

[osfan24]

FV3 looked very active as well. Similar to GFS.

[Ji]

sorry guys--was looking at the 00z FV3 when i mentioned the  nuclear bomb smh

 

[psuhoffman]

That’s the blocking we need. Breaks it down at the end but we get 3 snows out of it first. 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s the blocking we need. Breaks it down at the end but we get 3 snows out of it first. 

I hope after the 14 th the West improves.  Would be great to get a good Atlantic and Pac to work together.  

As for the MJO,  we hear that the CFS seems to do well in forecasting the progression,  so here is to hoping it has the correct handle. Seems to make sense with the progged SOI and other things in the West Pac.   

[psuhoffman]

Just now, frd said:

I hope after the 14 th the West improves.  Would be great to get a good Atlantic and Pac to work together.  

As for the MJO,  we hear that the CFS seems to do well in forecasting the progression,  so here is to hoping it has the correct handle. Seems to make sense with the progged SOI and other things in the West Pac.   

They are interrelated.  It’s hard to have a strong mjo phase 6 if the soi is Negative and vice versa. 

[Ji]

euro tries to get snow in here day 10 but the 50/50 low moves out and the high is out to sea and it turns into zr

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro gets some mix precip in here overnight Wednesday / early Thursday this run . Nothin big but maybe another stats padder if some trending in cad 

The shift with confluence/cold compared to the last few runs is pretty noticeable. I can see a path to a mixed event or zr. Expecting rain for now but wouldn't surprise me at all if a hp ends up nosing down enough. Only need a better transient 50/50. 

[Ji]

if we can keep that high from sliding out...could see a nice snowstorm out of it...but its showing a wintry mix

[snowmagnet]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry guys--was looking at the 00z FV3 when i mentioned the  nuclear bomb smh

 

PD weekend.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we can keep that high from sliding out...could see a nice snowstorm out of it...but its showing a wintry mix

I haven’t even looked at the surface but look at h5 progression day 7-10. It has enough block day 7 to get the system to cut under into a 50/50 but it completely kills the NAO day 8-10 and so the 50/50 can escape. 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I haven’t even looked at the surface but look at h5 progression day 7-10. It has enough block day 7 to get the system to cut under into a 50/50 but it completely kills the NAO day 8-10 and so the 50/50 can escape. 

i think we need to stop looking at D10...see where we are 5 days from now and re-evaluate. This is a good time to take a break from the board as we enter a disaster period

[Ji]

Just now, Ji said:

i think we need to stop looking at D10...see where we are 5 days from now and re-evaluate. This is a good time to take a break from the board as we enter a disaster period

see you at 5:30pm

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

GEPS looks as bit different  lol

 

 

Told ya so 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Told ya so 

its noise when its 372 hours out--a little shift here and there and its not that much different

[Wonderdog]

Just now, Ji said:

its noise when its 372 hours out--a little shift here and there and its not that much different

Thanks Chuck.

[Ji]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Thanks Chuck.

lol ive waited too long for this month just to  punt it on the first day after one day of disastrous runs

[Ralph Wiggum]

Beginning to see some promising signs coming together for a change towards the early/middle part of the eps/geps/gefs. Setup is showing up now within range where we take significant steps towards HL blocking. Not jumping headfirst into any one threat but the looks over the next 4-8 days seem to take promising steps. 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think we need to stop looking at D10...see where we are 5 days from now and re-evaluate. This is a good time to take a break from the board as we enter a disaster period

I agree. I'm not going into any details in the long range anymore until we actually see some stability and consensus. We're getting warm next week and that really is a 100% lock. Beyond that is nothing but question marks. Total waste of time to dig deep into a model suite only to have everything you just talked about become irrelevant 6-12 hours later. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 I was laughing to myself when I watched JB's video today about the MJO and the SSWE . Seems he did an  Isotherm moment there.   

Ok let me translate JB. 

Stuff he was honest about...

*we need the pressures to come up over the maritime continent area and to drop in the central and east pac. If we get that we will likely get the money look we’ve been chasing  

*his error there is why the cold has been centered northeast of his forecast 

Stuff he spun

*that the mjo/soi WILL go where he says. He has no clue. He has been wrong all winter on that so why now is he so sure?  He is just spinning because maybe it will and there is no advantage to him saying maybe it won’t. If his subscribers think it’s over he loses another 1-2 months of subscription fees. 

* all that BS crap about the winters following a tpv displacement. He is cherry picking 1. And 2 the years that weren’t snowy before the tpv displacement didn’t become snowy after so his analogs actually argue against his snowfall forecast. (Remember he is failing miserably on snow in philly nyc and Boston). And they argue against his temps too because the cold remained centered northwest in those years. None of them went to the southeast trough pattern he is calling for. It’s total and utter crap he is using to just fill up time. 

[Bob Chill]

EPS is nibbling at the idea of cold and precip combining late next week. Consensus is not enough cold but can't rule anything out. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok let me translate JB. 

Stuff he was honest about...

*we need the pressures to come up over the maritime continent area and to drop in the central and east pac. If we get that we will likely get the money look we’ve been chasing  

*his error there is why the cold has been centered northeast of his forecast 

Stuff he spun

*that the mjo/soi WILL go where he says. He has no clue. He has been wrong all winter on that so why now is he so sure?  He is just spinning because maybe it will and there is no advantage to him saying maybe it won’t. If his subscribers think it’s over he loses another 1-2 months of subscription fees. 

* all that BS crap about the winters following a tpv displacement. He is cherry picking 1. And 2 the years that weren’t snowy before the tpv displacement didn’t become snowy after so his analogs actually argue against his snowfall forecast. (Remember he is failing miserably on snow in philly nyc and Boston). And they argue against his temps too because the cold remained centered northwest in those years. None of them went to the southeast trough pattern he is calling for. It’s total and utter crap he is using to just fill up time. 

All true, I only found 1/4 of the video valuable. Money is money, right. 

"that the mjo/soi WILL go where he says. He has no clue"

Yep psu, this is really true, because all winter it is doing the opposite of what he said it would do. And in late Dec and  parts of Jan it did the opposite in a historical manner. 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

All true, I only found 1/4 of the video valuable. Money is money, right. 

"that the mjo/soi WILL go where he says. He has no clue"

Yep psu, this is really true, because all winter it is doing the opposite of what he said it would do. And in late Dec and  parts of Jan it did the opposite in a historical manner. 

 

 

 

 

He often contradicts things he or his partners said at an earlier date to spin a forecast. When he does that he is full of sh!t. 

 

[LP08]

Day 8 to Day 10 looked to me to have a lot of hits (can't see temps yet) on the EPS.  Basically either a west track or a MA special.  Not many full coast storms. 

 

Overall there isn't much change that I can see other than some noise on the EPS.  Another good run to my eyes.

 

Edit:  Also a slight signal around 13th-15th as well. Same as 0z it seems.  The only thing that jumps at me is the -NAO is centered more over Greenland than over the davis straights.

[jaydreb]

I’m no expert, but Greenland is red/orange from Day 3 onwards on the 12z EPS.  Looks good to me.