Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 I’ve been busy today and not really looked that much. Last I saw there were hints it would toward day 15 across guidance. Is this a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wow at the pressure, wonder if any NAO implications for the end of next week? ( wave breaking or otherwise? ) For that matter even this event next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: we really need one noreaster to complete this winter............that been the missing thing...is a big power coastal storm that goes up the coast. We blew our noreaster ration last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 A little better signal for a coastal in the d8-10 on the 18z gefs. That EPO is going to deliver one heck of a HP....Ens mean has a 1048 high at D9. Pretty impressive for that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve been busy today and not really looked that much. Last I saw there were hints it would toward day 15 across guidance. Is this a joke? No... I just now looked at the guidance from last night and today. Still agree with what I said after the NAO and AO looking fairly neutral to slightly negative day 5-10 they look to go very positive day 11-15. That likely is the beginning of the end for winter. But we get a monster dump of cold and a severely displaced tpv first so there is a pretty good 7-10 day window to work with for a storm before we likely warm up for good around March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 35 minutes ago, Yeoman said: -NAO doesn't exist anymore March coming in like a lion, gang? 10 days out, we are in good shape. Lots will change over the next few days - happy to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A little better signal for a coastal in the d8-10 on the 18z gefs. That EPO is going to deliver one heck of a HP....Ens mean has a 1048 high at D9. Pretty impressive for that range. Even the NWS products are going pretty cold the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: A little better signal for a coastal in the d8-10 on the 18z gefs. That EPO is going to deliver one heck of a HP....Ens mean has a 1048 high at D9. Pretty impressive for that range. Given the shape of a high, there's not going to be a low sneaking up from the central gulf coast states. Anything that forms will be an anafront skimming 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A little better signal for a coastal in the d8-10 on the 18z gefs. That EPO is going to deliver one heck of a HP....Ens mean has a 1048 high at D9. Pretty impressive for that range. Thats gonna be pretty refreshing for Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No... I just now looked at the guidance from last night and today. Still agree with what I said after the NAO and AO looking fairly neutral to slightly negative day 5-10 they look to go very positive day 11-15. That likely is the beginning of the end for winter. But we get a monster dump of cold and a severely displaced tpv first so there is a pretty good 7-10 day window to work with for a storm before we likely warm up for good around March 10th. sorry i misread it. I thought you were saying that the models were showing -NAO again in D11-15 lol. I am actually ready for winter to end. One more event to push me over 30 inches and i get to sleep full nights again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wow, the GFS is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 There’s our coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: sorry i misread it. I thought you were saying that the models were showing -NAO again in D11-15 lol. I am actually ready for winter to end. One more event to push me over 30 inches and i get to sleep full nights again First couple days of March have some things working in our favor. Crappy setup for any kind of long track though. TPV is likely dropping down (prob a couple times) over the next 2 weeks. Similar to what we saw in March 14&15. Could work out again. We seem to do well in March with -epo dumps, TPV intrusions, and progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 @psuhoffman I think you mentioned this recently....lol. #3 analog would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: There’s our coastal. You guys are NOT, I repeat, you are definitely NOT done with winter just yet. You have more snow yet to come this winter! Start those model tracking engines! Stock up on Red Bull! Many sleepless nights await! Get the shovels ready too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Here comes +NAO, pattern change. Not trending away, this signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 0z Euro more energetic with the NS shortwave for mid/late next week. Pops a little surface low off the coast and clips NE part of our region, gives southern/central NJ a few inches of snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 No dice on the big snowstorm from the 12z run for the following weekend though- too much separation between the NS and SS energy, so just a blob of rain that slides off the SE coast. Minor details on an op run at range lol. Plenty of potential for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 0z EPS has a pretty decent signal for a coastal low March 2-3 time frame. Glancing through the members, the mid next week deal is there, but minor/weak for the most part. For March 2-3 there are some decent hits and near misses among the members. Not a bad signal for 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman I think you mentioned this recently....lol. #3 analog would be acceptable 1984 had a couple storms and one absolute bomb late in the month but was mostly rain. 1965 was also had a monster storm around that date but was also more rain than the 93 one. There were two more minor snows the last week of March though. So some interesting dates mixed in there. I can see how that look “could” lead to a monster phased bomb. That crazy epo block is pressing down on the tpv displacing it south. The se ridge is resisting it shifting too Far East. If something dives down around the tpv and phases with the stj it could pull it all in and boom. Thing is that’s always a long shot. Getting the right setup happens every so often but getting it to all come together is way more rare. And even if it did quite a few similar monster phased bombs have been mostly rain. It’s more common to get them to phase bomb further north. The gulf thing was super rare. But there are enough interesting dates to say an amplified storm in the east is possible around that time period at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z EPS has a pretty decent signal for a coastal low March 2-3 time frame. Glancing through the members, the mid next week deal is there, but minor/weak for the most part. For March 2-3 there are some decent hits and near misses among the members. Not a bad signal for 9 days out. There were a handful of carrolina crushers in the members. I like seeing that at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Fv3 has a coastal March 5/6. Too far out to depend on but early March appears to be busy precipitation wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There were a handful of carrolina crushers in the members. I like seeing that at this range. Yeah I noticed that. Of course given there likely will be TPV lobes in the neighborhood during this period, we certainly wouldn't want to end our winter the same way it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I noticed that. Of course given there likely will be TPV lobes in the neighborhood during this period, we certainly wouldn't want to end our winter the same way it started. We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow. But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow. But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol Yeah I didn't think about the possibility of starting a mini panic when I made that post lol. In all seriousness, we do want some degree of suppression, and we want to see some southern sliders in the mix at range. It would be kinda 'funny' though if this is our last hurrah and it ends up another NC hit. Would make it a bookend season for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol Looking at the wave lenghts, and the -EPO set-up ,this might be one time where a significant March snowstorm hits DC and points NE. More potential up North but certainly DC could have a decent event followed by some very cold temps for early March. I feel a miss South is low. Sure could be wrong, but I favor something more DC and Northeast. There is a lot of energy to work with, and the players are on the field for something noteworthy between March 1 st and 8th. Nice to see the models improving as we near the end of Feb., and this matches earlier talks that the first week in March "could" deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Someone needs to start a new thread. Mystical February is quickly heading to the "finish it strong" early March threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Someone needs to start a new thread. Mystical February is quickly heading to the "finish it strong" early March threats. The Gerry Cooney thread....The Great White Hope! Many of us remember how that ended if you follow boxing and are old enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 56 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The Gerry Cooney thread....The Great White Hope! Many of us remember how that ended if you follow boxing and are old enough. Boxing day was the psu Hoffman storm... I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Oh Ha.. nevermind.. you were talking about boxing the sport not the epic disaster of boxing day 2010... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.