osfan24 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, snjókoma said: People complaining about this winter despite being over climo We need a 97-98 redux to put the fear of God in this forum. We've been spoiled this decade, despite some stinker winters. I'd love another one or five more storms this year, but I wouldn't complain too much if spring started tomorrow. Oh no doubt. I'm sure some of it is that I'm spoiled. Just looking back, we had three monster storms in a single winter. That was unprecedented. We basically had as many HECS in a single winter as I could remember in my entire life (1996, 2000, 2003). The January 2011 storm was awesome. The winter of 2013-2014 was just about the most wall-to-wall winter you can have. 2014-2015 started slow but was very wintry. 2015-2016 sucked but had a HECS that saved the whole thing. Definitely have been on a heater. But last three winters have been very meh. I'd happily trade a few crappy winters for going on a heater rather than a bunch of climo winters stacked together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. Always expecting a ‘96 or ‘10 winter around here is unrealistic and being pessimistic just brings everyone down. Your optimism is much appreciated. I’m hopeful for a couple of more events into the beginning of March. Maybe next week ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Always expecting a ‘96 or ‘10 winter around here is unrealistic and being pessimistic just brings everyone down. Your optimism is much appreciated. I’m hopeful for a couple of more events into the beginning of March. Maybe next week ?? No one is always expecting that. I certainly wasn't the last two winters. I was certainly optimistic about a big winter this year. Not 2009-2010 because I'll never see that again, but I was hoping something like 1996 or 2003 would be very possible given the pattern. Oh well. Still hopeful for a big one in the coming few weeks before we can get ready for hopefully a nice spring for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. I just try to be a realist when it comes to winter weather in my neck of the woods. The winter of 2009-10 was a "once in a lifetime" season and I seriously doubt I'll ever see that again unless I move much farther north. Like you, I do think we still have a chance at a significant snowfall in early-mid March. The GFS has been consistently showing a coastal storm in the March 2nd-4th period, give or take which run you're looking at. And we'll definitely still have cold shots throughout March, so there's still some hope left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 48 minutes ago, Jandurin said: So stop looking at winter outlooks then because they shouldn't color your actual experiences No they shouldn't. Mostly hyperbole now anyway with the twitter crew etc. I am not too picky, and I know my climo. It does get to be a little frustrating when most events fail to the point that there is not much to experience or enjoy. I have had 2 this winter where I got out and hiked and really enjoyed it. But mostly its been nickel and dime slop. That's how it goes though. Last 2 winters the enjoyment factor was much higher here. It sucked for others in our region though. Weather does what it does, and you just have to roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. With the EPO the way it is, we'll probably get another event or at least a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. My 6th grade class was rescheduled (canceled earlier due to snow) to attend outdoor education (overnight field trip) from Feb 27-3/1. We will be on top of South Mountain at the Skycroft Confernce Center. I’m am really torn- do I route for snow and possibly stuck in the mountain with 6th graders, or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Yes please to the end of the Euro run. 24 hour snowfall map attached for hour 240. Could you zoom in a little more so we don’t have to see your neighbors yards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The March 1-2 deal looks good on the euro. 2-6" and plenty cold. Room to improve assuming it stays on the radar. The weak wave before that has potential too. I'll let you guys reel this one in again. If we get another half decent accum event before the door shuts on the season I'll reluctantly have to grade this winter in the Bs. i think i'm already at B-, with some weight given to the nov event and the fact that the best snows this year occurred during the daytime. it's not bad considering we haven't had a great upper level pattern or consisent cold to work with. timing has been required almost all winter whereas some of the best winters we have the cold already in place (including some frozen ponds/rivers/etc) and just need a storm. the storms have been there...but the cold has been transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. I give this post a C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 34 minutes ago, Amped said: With the EPO the way it is, we'll probably get another event or at least a near miss. Probably a near hit. We are good at those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: And wow, to the cold potential near early March, the Euro depicts a flow directly from the North Pole. A stormy time period near that gradient. My orders are to cause a -NAO by helping cause reverse flow while in the UK - I will do my best! orders came from @psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 we really need one noreaster to complete this winter............that been the missing thing...is a big power coastal storm that goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: My orders are to cause a -NAO by helping cause reverse flow while in the UK - I will do my best! orders came from @psuhoffman I will be counting on you ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I am not ready for spring just yet. Oh the weeds, mowing, gardening, bugs, oppressive dews, etc. And wow, looking at the side of my home today all the mold buildup from I guess the very wet and at times warm winter. Crazy, first time I can recall this happening in the winter months. I am ready for later next week. If I have to suffer through a another summer like last year I demand a March 1960 , shaken not stirred please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. Yea people can give it whatever grade they want. The only time I get frustrated is with people like Mdecoy who are literally never satisfied no matter what. Im weird in what I want to feel it was a good winter. I either like a nice stretch of snowcover, like 10 days, and it doesn’t have to be a ton of snow just a solid cold with snow on the ground period. (and up here that isn’t that uncommon it’s like a 50/50 thing). Or one big blockbuster event. I love big storms so even if the rest of the year was a dud I’m happy if I got a big storm. I was happy with last year because of the March storm. I’ve actually been happy with about 75% of my winters since moving here. This is a weird one where by the numbers it isn’t that bad but it just leaves me uninspired how I got to those numbers. But I’ve had a 10”+ storm 4 of the last 5 years in March. Make that 5/6 and this year vaults up into satisfying territory. 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: Always expecting a ‘96 or ‘10 winter around here is unrealistic and being pessimistic just brings everyone down. Your optimism is much appreciated. I’m hopeful for a couple of more events into the beginning of March. Maybe next week ?? I didn’t expect a year like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014... those were all close to 100” winters here. But I was kind of rooting for a solid above climo year...something like 2015 in the 45-60” range. That would be comparable to a 20-35” winter in the DC/Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Very cold here 3/1-3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 37 minutes ago, Ji said: we really need one noreaster to complete this winter............that been the missing thing...is a big power coastal storm that goes up the coast. For as often as I can all winter long, I have checked the CPC-made D+8 and D+11 lists of composite analog dates to sniff out future threats. I have been bummed to see a general lack of KU dates being spit out all met winter long. I think the greatest prevalence of KU dates was only 2 out of 10 on any given day. The D+11 list of analog dates centered on March 3rd only spit out one KU date: 19930313. (cue angels signing on from high) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: Yes please to the end of the Euro run. 24 hour snowfall map attached for hour 240. March 3rd is my Birthday... Give me a snow storm... that is all I am asking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: we really need one noreaster to complete this winter............that been the missing thing...is a big power coastal storm that goes up the coast. Been a winter of west to east narrow stripes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Yea people can give it whatever grade they want. The only time I get frustrated is with people like Mdecoy who are literally never satisfied no matter what. Im weird in what I want to feel it was a good winter. I either like a nice stretch of snowcover, like 10 days, and it doesn’t have to be a ton of snow just a solid cold with snow on the ground period. (and up here that isn’t that uncommon it’s like a 50/50 thing). Or one big blockbuster event. I love big storms so even if the rest of the year was a dud I’m happy if I got a big storm. I was happy with last year because of the March storm. I’ve actually been happy with about 75% of my winters since moving here. This is a weird one where by the numbers it isn’t that bad but it just leaves me uninspired how I got to those numbers. But I’ve had a 10”+ storm 4 of the last 5 years in March. Make that 5/6 and this year vaults up into satisfying territory. I didn’t expect a year like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014... those were all close to 100” winters here. But I was kind of rooting for a solid above climo year...something like 2015 in the 45-60” range. That would be comparable to a 20-35” winter in the DC/Baltimore area. I actually had hopes for a blockbuster winter after so many great forecasts for a - NAO, modalities El Niño, etc, but I still try to stay optimistic. I also feel that winter isn’t over... and I would love a good coastal. I never give up hope until April. I really love this forum. It helps for a great winter season, even if we don’t have a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Check out the 2016 analog. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Check out the 2016 analog. We'll see what happens. The only worthy analog that year would be January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Check out the 2016 analog. We'll see what happens. Not a bad match. The look early March will roll into a torch if the AO and NAO go positive. But we could have legit threats before that happens. There was a storm threat early March 2016 but it didnt work out. Ended up a weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not a bad match. The look early March will roll into a torch if the AO and NAO go positive. But we could have legit threats before that happens. There was a storm threat early March 2016 but it didnt work out. Ended up a weak system. Are the AO and NAO expected to go positive? I thought I saw some blocking on the long range runs the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Are the AO and NAO expected to go positive? I thought I saw some blocking on the long range runs the other day. Check out this verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 With such a hideous +AO it's a miracle that we've even gotten a few events this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, Fozz said: Are the AO and NAO expected to go positive? I thought I saw some blocking on the long range runs the other day. I’ve been busy today and not really looked that much. Last I saw there were hints it would toward day 15 across guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 28 minutes ago, Fozz said: Are the AO and NAO expected to go positive? -NAO doesn't exist anymore March coming in like a lion, gang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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