The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[ATreglown]

I just took a peak here and was wondering why no post in the past hour with the 00z running. Then I took a look at the gfs. Well, no explanation needed, .... it speaks for itself. 

[CaryWx]

20 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

I just took a peak here and was wondering why no post in the past hour with the 00z running. Then I took a look at the gfs. Well, no explanation needed, .... it speaks for itself. 

I'm from another sub forum and boy does it stink

[Yeoman]

53 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

I just took a peak here and was wondering why no post in the past hour with the 00z running. Then I took a look at the gfs. Well, no explanation needed, .... it speaks for itself. 

a 10 day forecast doing a 180 from run to run? shocker..

[MD Snow]

Gefs doesn’t look bad and fv3 op looks pretty good starting next Thursday after being a rain fest at 18z. 

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

That’s baked into the casserole.  I always expect a step back from the overnight runs.  Showme will bring the bad news around 6 am.  Always  

LOL. Always? I am positive to a fault. Bet if you read through my posts this winter (previous winters as well) you will find that 90% of them have a positive spin on them even on some of the worst runs. I bet Bob and PSU half the time are gnashing their teeth wanting to call me out on some of my posts. So if I come in here with a negative post about a run then what I see has to be a dead ratter in some way. A pig so ugly that I can find no way to throw a dress on it and put lip stick on it. And what we were seeing with yesterdays 00Z run combined with the tendencies I was seeing over a couple of days of runs was such a pig. And the 06Z GEFS only added insult to injury.

Now it seems that what some fail to realize is that the models, when they get into the longer ranges, is far from an exact science. Hell, quite often they are out to lunch even inside 7 days. That is what makes the long range discussion so interesting to some of us. We like to discuss why they could be wrong or right, what tendencies we are seeing, are they showing any promise, in other words we enjoy trying to out think the models/computers themselves. But that involves discussing both the good and bad with each run. If you are only discussing the one side (positive side) then there really is no discussion to speak of. Now if what the majority want is positive postings only then I will honor that. Won't be much posting on my part because the discussion aspect will be gone but nether the less I will honor the majorities wishes.

Sorry Bristow, not really coming down on you just speaking more in a general way. But I have gotten to the point where some on here have worn me down with their antics. And poor PSU, getting hammered the last couple of weeks for pointing out the flaws we were seeing, much of which I agreed with I might add. I am finding less and less enjoyment tracking, let alone posting and I have to wonder if other prolific posters are starting to feel the way as I do. If this continues there may come a day where the only ones left in this thread will be the weenies ripping and reading the models and parroting back and forth how wonderful or horrible the run is without any analysis or thought behind it. But if that is what you all want, then so be it.

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Always? I am positive to a fault. Bet if you read through my posts this winter (previous winters as well) you will find that 90% of them have a positive spin on them even on some of the worst runs. I bet Bob and PSU half the time are gnashing their teeth wanting to call me out on some of my posts. So if I come in here with a negative post about a run then what I see has to be a dead ratter in some way. A pig so ugly that I can find no way to throw a dress on it and put lip stick on it. And what we were seeing with yesterdays 00Z run combined with the tendencies I was seeing over a couple of days of runs was such a pig. And the 06Z GEFS only added insult to injury.

Now it seems that what some fail to realize is that the models, when they get into the longer ranges, is far from an exact science. Hell, quite often they are out to lunch even inside 7 days. That is what makes the long range discussion so interesting to some of us. We like to discuss why they could be wrong or right, what tendencies we are seeing, are they showing any promise, in other words we enjoy trying to out think the models/computers themselves. But that involves discussing both the good and bad with each run. If you are only discussing the one side (positive side) then there really is no discussion to speak of. Now if what the majority want is positive postings only then I will honor that. Won't be much posting on my part because the discussion aspect will be gone but nether the less I will honor the majorities wishes.

Sorry Bristow, not really coming down on you just speaking more in a general way. But I have gotten to the point where some on here have worn me down with their antics. And poor PSU, getting hammered the last couple of weeks for pointing out the flaws we were seeing, much of which I agreed with I might add. I am finding less and less enjoyment tracking, let alone posting and I have to wonder if other prolific posters are starting to feel the way as I do. If this continues there may come a day where the only ones left in this thread will be the weenies ripping and reading the models and parroting back and forth how wonderful or horrible the run is without any analysis or thought behind it. But if that is what you all want, then so be it.

I love your posts.  Read them first thing.  Just kidding about the bad news.  Although sometimes it is what it is...bad news.  

[midatlanticweather]

Few posts... Models confirm why... See ya 12z

[showmethesnow]

Talking 10+ days away and really haven't dug to deeply into it but I do like one thing I am seeing on the EPS in regards to the possible day 10/11 system. EPS is now favoring splitting a piece of the Canadian pv off and sending it in the general direction of the 50/50 region. At this point it may be a little north and west of ideal but the tendency over the last day of runs has been to shift that feature farther south and east. Also like the fact that the EPS is now favoring lower pressures just north of the 50/50 region beyond the day 10/11 system as well.

The evolution in the North Atlantic from 10+ days onward actually shows quite a bit of promise in regards to our region but will probably be very contingent on actually having some form of blocking within the NAO domain through that period of time so as to slow down any 50/50 features there may be. Otherwise we are talking timing issues and a much smaller window to score.

[showmethesnow]

Not going to go into too much detail but I like the improvements I have seen on the EPS in the extended (10+ days). Little better look generally in regards to our possible day 10/11 system and the look in the N Atlantic leading into it which will probably make or break it. The look afterwards also has improved somewhat as well. But all this is very much contingent on the N Atlantic. Pretty simple at this point, if we have the blocking and the generally lower heights around the 50/50 region through this period of time, which the EPS is now showing, we are looking at potential, possibly big potential. Take that blocking and the lower heights around the 50/50 out and the pattern quickly goes to the dogs.

eta: We also saw a fairly significant jump on the snowfall means through the 15 days. DC/Baltimore jumped from 3 inches through that period of time to 4 1/2. So the ensembles seem to be picking up on the better N Atlantic setup.

[Buffalo Transplant]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Always? I am positive to a fault. Bet if you read through my posts this winter (previous winters as well) you will find that 90% of them have a positive spin on them even on some of the worst runs. I bet Bob and PSU half the time are gnashing their teeth wanting to call me out on some of my posts. So if I come in here with a negative post about a run then what I see has to be a dead ratter in some way. A pig so ugly that I can find no way to throw a dress on it and put lip stick on it. And what we were seeing with yesterdays 00Z run combined with the tendencies I was seeing over a couple of days of runs was such a pig. And the 06Z GEFS only added insult to injury.

Now it seems that what some fail to realize is that the models, when they get into the longer ranges, is far from an exact science. Hell, quite often they are out to lunch even inside 7 days. That is what makes the long range discussion so interesting to some of us. We like to discuss why they could be wrong or right, what tendencies we are seeing, are they showing any promise, in other words we enjoy trying to out think the models/computers themselves. But that involves discussing both the good and bad with each run. If you are only discussing the one side (positive side) then there really is no discussion to speak of. Now if what the majority want is positive postings only then I will honor that. Won't be much posting on my part because the discussion aspect will be gone but nether the less I will honor the majorities wishes.

Sorry Bristow, not really coming down on you just speaking more in a general way. But I have gotten to the point where some on here have worn me down with their antics. And poor PSU, getting hammered the last couple of weeks for pointing out the flaws we were seeing, much of which I agreed with I might add. I am finding less and less enjoyment tracking, let alone posting and I have to wonder if other prolific posters are starting to feel the way as I do. If this continues there may come a day where the only ones left in this thread will be the weenies ripping and reading the models and parroting back and forth how wonderful or horrible the run is without any analysis or thought behind it. But if that is what you all want, then so be it.

I feel bad that it comes down on you guys... I am here to learn and see what you are seeing and to have people in here now that are just trolling and looking to get under people's skin is annoying.  I would be fine with turning off their capability of posting if they are just in here to troll and be negative - way too many people saying, "Looks like rain - we are screwed!".  Let the people with the background and expertise lead the way.  Thanks for all that you guys (and gals) show us and I will be on your flanks ready to swat any flies if needed.  Take care.

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Always? I am positive to a fault. Bet if you read through my posts this winter (previous winters as well) you will find that 90% of them have a positive spin on them even on some of the worst runs. I bet Bob and PSU half the time are gnashing their teeth wanting to call me out on some of my posts. So if I come in here with a negative post about a run then what I see has to be a dead ratter in some way. A pig so ugly that I can find no way to throw a dress on it and put lip stick on it. And what we were seeing with yesterdays 00Z run combined with the tendencies I was seeing over a couple of days of runs was such a pig. And the 06Z GEFS only added insult to injury.

Now it seems that what some fail to realize is that the models, when they get into the longer ranges, is far from an exact science. Hell, quite often they are out to lunch even inside 7 days. That is what makes the long range discussion so interesting to some of us. We like to discuss why they could be wrong or right, what tendencies we are seeing, are they showing any promise, in other words we enjoy trying to out think the models/computers themselves. But that involves discussing both the good and bad with each run. If you are only discussing the one side (positive side) then there really is no discussion to speak of. Now if what the majority want is positive postings only then I will honor that. Won't be much posting on my part because the discussion aspect will be gone but nether the less I will honor the majorities wishes.

Sorry Bristow, not really coming down on you just speaking more in a general way. But I have gotten to the point where some on here have worn me down with their antics. And poor PSU, getting hammered the last couple of weeks for pointing out the flaws we were seeing, much of which I agreed with I might add. I am finding less and less enjoyment tracking, let alone posting and I have to wonder if other prolific posters are starting to feel the way as I do. If this continues there may come a day where the only ones left in this thread will be the weenies ripping and reading the models and parroting back and forth how wonderful or horrible the run is without any analysis or thought behind it. But if that is what you all want, then so be it.

I was confused about the Bristow comment, but I guess it was just a joke. Your posts are very positive and the analysis, along with Bob and PSU are amazing. Sometimes it’s not good news, but you give us relevant information and it typically tries to find the glad half full. I look forward to your morning updates.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

I was confused about the Bristow comment. Your posts are very positive and your discussion is amazing. Sometimes it’s not good news, but you give us relevant information and it typically tries to find the glad half full. I look forward to your morning updates. 

The always part meant that the extended always looks better, seemingly, by day and then steps back a night.  Nothing to do with showme, he is just the first expert poster to post in the a.m.....I love that guy he is top three contributor. 

[snowmagnet]

Just now, BristowWx said:

The always part meant that the extended always looks better, seemingly, by day and then steps back a night.  Nothing to do with showme, he is just the first expert poster to post in the a.m.....I love that guy he is top three contributor. 

I realized you were joking... I edited. 

[nj2va]

Overnight EPS certainly loves a -NAO.  And there’s low heights near the 50/50 domain too.  I would think the “blues” over the WC would continue to rotate to the EC if the run continued.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, nj2va said:

Overnight EPS certainly loves a -NAO.  And there’s low heights near the 50/50 domain too.  I would think the “blues” over the WC would continue to rotate to the EC as the run ended.  

Actually with the almost full latitude ridging so far to the west (EPO) that argues for a trough to set up within the west. What the NAO block is doing, or hopefully doing, is allowing the NS to bypass that weakness in the southwest and progress eastward hopefully either setting up an upper latitude trough or gradient pattern in the east.  At this point I think there is no escaping a SW trough on the EPS (unless we see better cooperation within the PAC), our hope is that the NS doesn't dump full throttle into that trough strengthening it. If that does occur it's 'Lights out Gracie'. So what we should hope to see, if the NAO is real, is that we see a migration of blue (lower pressure anomalies) in the upper latitudes moving eastward while blues are left in the west especially at lower latitudes. And in fact we do see this migration with each pulse of northern energy moving through.

Now the above is reference to the EPS as the GEFS is much more forgiving with the PAC and the western trough

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

And poor PSU, getting hammered the last couple of weeks for pointing out the flaws we were seeing, much of which I agreed with I might add. I am finding less and less enjoyment tracking, let alone posting and I have to wonder if other prolific posters are starting to feel the way as I do. 

Thanks but I don’t need any sympathy. When your a snarky smart arse you can’t cry when people take swings at you. I think my personality and tendency to go over the top both good and bad has a lot to do with it. I bring it on myself. I took some crap for being “too positive” the last 2 years. 

Your posts are like my cup of coffee and I bet most here agree. Just don’t let the venting that goes on by a few get to you. If you like analyzing then do it and then ignore them. I’m sure 99% here value it. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks but I don’t need any sympathy. When your a snarky smart arse you can’t cry when people take swings at you. I think my personality and tendency to go over the top both good and bad has a lot to do with it. I bring it on myself. I took some crap for being “too positive” the last 2 years. 

Your posts are like my cup of coffee and I bet most here agree. Just don’t let the venting that goes on by a few get to you. If you like analyzing then do it and then ignore them. I’m sure 99% here value it. 

Fine, you won't get it then....... Mr. Fringed. 

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Guidance has the Thursday storm trending colder and colder....definitely some cad showing up . Some frozen on the Euro  . Looking more and more like a very brief warmup of just Sunday- Tuesday.  

Could be good news! A few of our snow events this year started out on the models as rain. If we are starting out with something frozen on the models this time....

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Fine, you won't get it then....... Mr. Fringed. 

If I’m fringed what does that make you?

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually with the almost full latitude ridging so far to the west (EPO) that argues for a trough to set up within the west. What the NAO block is doing, or hopefully doing, is allowing the NS to bypass that weakness in the southwest and progress eastward hopefully either setting up an upper latitude trough or gradient pattern in the east.  At this point I think there is no escaping a SW trough on the EPS (unless we see better cooperation within the PAC), our hope is that the NS doesn't dump full throttle into that trough strengthening it. If that does occur it's 'Lights out Gracie'. So what we should hope to see, if the NAO is real, is that we see a migration of blue (lower pressure anomalies) in the upper latitudes moving eastward while blues are left in the west especially at lower latitudes. And in fact we do see this migration with each pulse of northern energy moving through.

Now the above is reference to the EPS as the GEFS is much more forgiving with the PAC and the western trough

Euro bias maybe?  We joke but it really does seem to adjust those east a lot. 

[dallen7908]

EPS continues to highlight a period beginning Sunday evening the 10th for snow opportunities.  15 day mean of 5" is above the noise level and the percent chance for >3" is 50% and >6" is 30%. 

 

SSS disclaimer: I'd lean towards the 14th on as I will be on vacation from the 14th - 19th near Mount Washington and have managed to miss the last two significant snows in the DC area due to vacation. 

[LP08]

Scanning the EPS, I think after the 10th through the end of the month is very conductive to snow.  One of the better looking patterns we would have had this year with lower heights finally showing up in the 50/50 region and a -NAO.  Specific threats will most likely come down to the strength of the block but there is a lot to like going forward.

 

 

[osfan24]

I enjoy showme's posts, as well as psuhoffman's and many others. I enjoy anyone that posts on here who is clearly more knowledgeable than me and can help me learn learn more about the weather. HM is obviously brilliant but he's so brilliant everything he posts goes way over my head. Some of our best posters on here have a way of showing graphics and breaking complex and confusing things down in a way that makes the dumb-dumb's like me understand. At the same time, I also enjoy someone like Ji. His trolling can be a bit much at times, but a lot of his posts are funny and spot-on.

Sometimes I get frustrated with all the positivity in the long range when the long range good looks repeatedly disappear, but I also understand it's the long range thread so what do you expect?

[dallen7908]

49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The always part meant that the extended always looks better, seemingly, by day and then steps back a night.  Nothing to do with showme, he is just the first expert poster to post in the a.m.....I love that guy he is top three contributor. 

I agree.  I remember checking one Sunday morning at 8 AM for a Showme post and being disappointed that he chose to sleep in. 

[Ji]

Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good

[Wonderdog]

Snow picking up just a tad in Manassas. With the slate skies, a pretty winter scene. Hopefully the snow continues to make it over the mountains. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro bias maybe?  We joke but it really does seem to adjust those east a lot. 

Maybe. Not going to go back and check but I believe there were times it was spot on with that feature this winter. Honestly, IF the northern Atlantic cooperates I think we are fine either way. In fact I would prefer to see some troughing in the deep southwest to hopefully bump up the southern stream. All I don't want to see is the NS getting sucked down into that pit. That happens with any of the NS pulses and that may not be something we are able to recover from for an extended period of time if at all.

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good

You would think that the overnight runs were disastrous.  Maybe we are all conditioned to think that way.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good

Snowfall mean is the best its looked in several runs.

If you look deeper though, the members are basically split on the general look for our area beyond day 10. Some are torchy at the same time others would have us in the freezer. As has been discussed ad nauseam, our hopes and dreams going forward pretty much all hinge on a legit -NAO developing.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good

??? Are you talking about last nights postings? Because I thought this mornings were generally positive in nature.