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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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8 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The best storm of the winter will probably come around 10th to 15th of March. Just a hunch based on the pattern we have now translating into a deeper mid-continent trough once it finally shifts away from the west coast. Although there's currently lots of cold air in good places to your north, that other feature of arctic air diving south into Arizona and New Mexico is bound to produce lows heading northeast from Texas. Like the current one, the best they can do is give a front-end thump. Get one of these fat boys to form further east and head up the east coast, and you've got yourselves a HECS. Thinking March will deliver that potential. 

I second this. The Best is yet to come for the Mid Atlantic this winter.

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Still an interesting h5 look for mid to late next week on the EPS. Overall days 7+ will have cold around, SE ridge weakens then disappears, and the boundary is further SE. Seeing indications of more coastals on the EPS ens members through the D 7-12 period. GEFS also looks cold, and from day 7 on has +precip anomalies along the Gulf and SE coast, and slightly negative departures MW and Ohio Valley.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Next week looks interesting on the 12z EURO. A weak wave Wed into Thu then something more significant Fri into Sat. Plenty of cold around and even colder air pressing.

The March 1-2 deal looks good on the euro. 2-6" and plenty cold. Room to improve assuming it stays on the radar. The weak wave before that has potential too. I'll let you guys reel this one in again. If we get another half decent accum event before the door shuts on the season I'll reluctantly have to grade this winter in the Bs. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The March 1-2 deal looks good on the euro. 2-6" and plenty cold. Room to improve assuming it stays on the radar. The weak wave before that has potential too. I'll let you guys reel this one in again. If we get another half decent accum event before the door shuts on the season I'll reluctantly have to grade this winter in the Bs. 

Hey Bob.  Hope all is well.  Hoping for just one more trackable event.  Running out of runway for this winter.  Today’s event came in like a lion and out like a lamb. fizzled quickly but we got a stats builder.  

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The March 1-2 deal looks good on the euro. 2-6" and plenty cold. Room to improve assuming it stays on the radar. The weak wave before that has potential too. I'll let you guys reel this one in again. If we get another half decent accum event before the door shuts on the season I'll reluctantly have to grade this winter in the Bs. 

Agree. I need a good event here to even get close to a C grade though lol. Today was pretty much a fail because of lack of precip here. Not a drop of rain to this point, and not much sleet. Who woulda thunk? I'm not mad tho, its just one of those years for my yard. You had one of these last year I think.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The March 1-2 deal looks good on the euro. 2-6" and plenty cold. Room to improve assuming it stays on the radar. The weak wave before that has potential too. I'll let you guys reel this one in again. If we get another half decent accum event before the door shuts on the season I'll reluctantly have to grade this winter in the Bs. 

Hey... This is February discussion... Not March.  Just kidding.  Good to have to you back.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The March 1-2 deal looks good on the euro. 2-6" and plenty cold. Room to improve assuming it stays on the radar. The weak wave before that has potential too. I'll let you guys reel this one in again. If we get another half decent accum event before the door shuts on the season I'll reluctantly have to grade this winter in the Bs. 

I have liked this date for a long time. Needs to start after i get home though on the first!

 

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7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I have liked this date for a long time. Needs to start after i get home though on the first!

 

And wow,  to the cold potential near early March, the Euro depicts a flow directly from the North Pole.  A stormy time period near that gradient. 

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19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

If we don't get anymore events I'd give this winter a solid D+ ...decent totals but the snow melted and that stinks

Yeah I'd give it a D- at this point. I'm probably right at climo to this point, but only one pure snow event, not many events or even events to track, the frustration of everything disappearing at Day 10, and most of all, the ridiculous hype coming into this winter that it would be a blockbuster.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I'd give it a D- at this point. I'm probably right at climo to this point, but only one pure snow event, not many events or even events to track, the frustration of everything disappearing at Day 10, and most of all, the ridiculous hype coming into this winter that it would be a blockbuster.

I think you grade things too harshly. I'd give it a C if there's nothing after this. B if I reach climo.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I'd give it a D- at this point. I'm probably right at climo to this point, but only one pure snow event, not many events or even events to track, the frustration of everything disappearing at Day 10, and most of all, the ridiculous hype coming into this winter that it would be a blockbuster.

Yeah the last two winter where almost nothing at all happened were better

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3 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Yeah the last two winter where almost nothing at all happened were better

At least my expectations going in where low though. They were sky high this year. And it's not like a few people hyped it. EVERYONE thought it was going to be huge. 

As far as grading too harshly, a C is average in my book, so given expectations, this has been well below average.

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People complaining about this winter despite being over climo :facepalm:

We need a 97-98 redux to put the fear of God in this forum. We've been spoiled this decade, despite some stinker winters.

I'd love another one or five more storms this year, but I wouldn't complain too much if spring started tomorrow.

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