psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 PLEASE just this one.... then I will gladly welcome spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: PLEASE just this one.... then I will gladly welcome spring! Me too. But only if it is followed by 5 days of frigid cold with no melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Me too. But only it is followed by 5 days of frigid cold with no melting. Or this... INCOMING!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: PLEASE just this one.... then I will gladly welcome spring! I changed my mind...I want that next one too. What can I say I'm greedy when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 @C.A.P.E. I am obviously having some fun and kidding around.... but I do think the long range looks hold real potential. But anything past day 10 this year is a complete pipe dream so we're not even close to start taking specific threats seriously yet. But if...super duper if, the general h5 pattern being hinted at is legit we probably will end up tracking something in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I changed my mind...I want that next one too. What can I say I'm greedy when it comes to snow. Ok snow on snow is acceptable. I would forgo the brutal cold for that. Two snowstorms then it can go right to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. I am obviously having some fun and kidding around.... but I do think the long range looks hold real potential. But anything past day 10 this year is a complete pipe dream so we're not even close to start taking specific threats seriously yet. But if...super duper if, the general h5 pattern being hinted at is legit we probably will end up tracking something in March. Agree. I still think next week might surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Ok snow on snow is acceptable. I would forgo the brutal cold for that. Two snowstorms then it can go right to 70. This isn't "brutal" enough for you... in March LOL It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March. A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm. Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end. Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Believe it or not, it's a reverse ENSO signal for the year as hard as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This isn't "brutal" enough for you... in March LOL It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March. A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm. Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end. Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!! Lol.. Damn. I was just wearing my weenie hat- the one that says MARCH SNOW SUCKS IT MELTS AN HOUR AFTER IT STOPS. One of Ji's favs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March. A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm. Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end. Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!! Thats would be awesome, it's my birthday ! Get the MJO to move along like in the plot you posted, and maybe it could happen. This date(s) has been coming up again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Lol.. Damn. I was just wearing my weenie hat- the one that says MARCH SNOW SUCKS IT MELTS AN HOUR AFTER IT STOPS. One of Ji's favs. This GFS run really drops the hammer in early March. The overall look with that TPV displaced south into Canada certainly opens the door to something like that. That run was just extreme though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Trying not to get excited, but maybe it finally happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: This GFS run really drops the hammer in early March. The overall look with that TPV displaced south into Canada certainly opens the door to something like that. That run was just extreme though. Yeah and its not out of nowhere. Been seeing it on op runs for days now, and recent runs of the GEFS have been suggesting it. I know the period has looked a bit dry on the ensembles, but like I said earlier, it will be March, so get cold intrusions like that and storms usually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah and its not out of nowhere. Been seeing it on op runs for days now, and recent runs of the GEFS have been suggesting it. I know the period has looked a bit dry on the ensembles, but like I said earlier, it will be March, so get cold intrusions like that and storms usually come. March with a -40 SOI argues against dry lol BTW...the GEFS actually supports the extreme op solutions, at least in terms of the general pattern. Holy Cow look at that TPV displacement... this would certainly load the baroclinicity across the CONUS in March! I could see some more wild op runs incoming if this is the general look we're dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This isn't "brutal" enough for you... in March LOL It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March. A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm. Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end. Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!! I would forever change my opinion that March snow sucks IF that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I would forever change my opinion that March snow sucks IF that happened. It CAN happen...just very rare but March 1960 Winchester recorded 11", 5", and 7.5" of snow in March and had 9 straight days with a high below freezing AND didn't reach 40 degrees for the first time in the month until March 17th! There was snowcover until March 22nd. That is the most extreme stretch of snow/cold we have ever seen in March but history says it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March with a -40 SOI argues against dry lol BTW...the GEFS actually supports the extreme op solutions, at least in terms of the general pattern. Holy Cow look at that TPV displacement... this would certainly load the baroclinicity across the CONUS in March! I could see some more wild op runs incoming if this is the general look we're dealing with. It's the same old story.. Now March is getting warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's the same old story.. Now March is getting warmer. Sun is hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It's obviously a seasonal pattern that hasn't delivered snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 i've definitely shoveled snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 lol EURO day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 this looks interesting...miller b though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Too close to the coast. Probably just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: this looks interesting Doesn't get going until its north of most of us but it would be a widespread 2-4" with 6"+ at the PA/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: Too close to the coast. Probably just rain. Nope... it all snow Just gets going too late for us... ofc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 looks like a hybrid...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn't get going until its north of most of us but it would be a widespread 2-4" with 6"+ at the PA/MD border. turn that purple into blue and its a 10 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 wicked EPO into the AO regions...-NAO and we get a big east coast storm. All under 9 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 nice 50/50 low heading into the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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