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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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@C.A.P.E. I am obviously having some fun and kidding around.... but I do think the long range looks hold real potential.  But anything past day 10 this year is a complete pipe dream so we're not even close to start taking specific threats seriously yet.  But if...super duper if, the general h5 pattern being hinted at is legit we probably will end up tracking something in March.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. I am obviously having some fun and kidding around.... but I do think the long range looks hold real potential.  But anything past day 10 this year is a complete pipe dream so we're not even close to start taking specific threats seriously yet.  But if...super duper if, the general h5 pattern being hinted at is legit we probably will end up tracking something in March.  

Agree. I still think next week might surprise.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Ok snow on snow is acceptable. I would forgo the brutal cold for that. Two snowstorms then it can go right to 70.

This isn't "brutal" enough for you... in March LOL

gfs_T2m_neus_51.thumb.png.f1010ec2a4fce62e339af1947714b6ed.png

It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March.

A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm.  Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end.  Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!!

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn't "brutal" enough for you... in March LOL

gfs_T2m_neus_51.thumb.png.f1010ec2a4fce62e339af1947714b6ed.png

It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March.

A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm.  Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end.  Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!!

Lol.. Damn.

I was just wearing my weenie hat- the one that says  MARCH SNOW SUCKS IT MELTS AN HOUR AFTER IT STOPS.

One of Ji's favs.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March.

A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm.  Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end.  Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!!

Thats would be awesome, it's my birthday !  :snowman:

Get the MJO to move along like in the plot you posted, and maybe it could happen.  This date(s)  has been coming up again and again.  

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lol.. Damn.

I was just wearing my weenie hat- the one that says  MARCH SNOW SUCKS IT MELTS AN HOUR AFTER IT STOPS.

One of Ji's favs.

This GFS run really drops the hammer in early March.  The overall look with that TPV displaced south into Canada certainly opens the door to something like that.  That run was just extreme though.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

This GFS run really drops the hammer in early March.  The overall look with that TPV displaced south into Canada certainly opens the door to something like that.  That run was just extreme though.  

Yeah and its not out of nowhere. Been seeing it on op runs for days now, and recent runs of the GEFS have been suggesting it. I know the period has looked a bit dry on the ensembles, but like I said earlier, it will be March, so get cold intrusions like that and storms usually come.

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah and its not out of nowhere. Been seeing it on op runs for days now, and recent runs of the GEFS have been suggesting it. I know the period has looked a bit dry on the ensembles, but like I said earlier, it will be March, so get cold intrusions like that and storms usually come.

March with a -40 SOI argues against dry lol

BTW...the GEFS actually supports the extreme op solutions, at least in terms of the general pattern.  Holy Cow look at that TPV displacement...  this would certainly load the baroclinicity across the CONUS in March!  I could see some more wild op runs incoming if this is the general look we're dealing with.  

gefs_z500a_nh_45.thumb.png.a07ecd8229fe7c5e2a8c0752b7527bc7.png

gefs_t850a_nh_51.thumb.png.b8e602eb7b4da081877928954fdfad52.png

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43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn't "brutal" enough for you... in March LOL

gfs_T2m_neus_51.thumb.png.f1010ec2a4fce62e339af1947714b6ed.png

It's actually about the weeniest long range you will ever see in March.

A 10" plus area wide snowstorm with temps in the low 20's during the storm.  Then 3 days of brutal cold with lows around 0 and highs in the teens and low 20's and then a second big storm incoming at the end.  Obviously this is all just fun but if we could just lock that up seriously!!!

I would forever change my opinion that March snow sucks IF that happened.

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5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I would forever change my opinion that March snow sucks IF that happened.

It CAN happen...just very rare but March 1960 Winchester recorded 11", 5", and 7.5" of snow in March and had 9 straight days with a high below freezing AND didn't reach 40 degrees for the first time in the month until March 17th!  There was snowcover until March 22nd.   That is the most extreme stretch of snow/cold we have ever seen in March but history says it is possible.  

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March with a -40 SOI argues against dry lol

BTW...the GEFS actually supports the extreme op solutions, at least in terms of the general pattern.  Holy Cow look at that TPV displacement...  this would certainly load the baroclinicity across the CONUS in March!  I could see some more wild op runs incoming if this is the general look we're dealing with.  

 

It's the same old story.. Now March is getting warmer. 

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