The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Today’s daily SOI contribution was -29 . This makes 7 days in a row that it has been negative & this is the best number yet this week.

I posted this before, some things are still very El Nino-ish. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I'm not overly excited lol. Looks pretty dry once the SE ridge weakens and we get colder overall.

The pattern this winter has been a lack of a pattern.  We’ve had to rely on perfect timing.  Looking back I can’t say there’s been any real consistency as far as clippers, cutters, nor’easters, or even cold.  Like the Wizards and Redskins, there’s been a lack of identity.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

i saw it...would be more excited if it was in mid winter...not the end of the month. So meh...

Did you forget what happened last March? Or March 2014 for the Mid Atlantic ?

[psuhoffman]

This is new...geps jumper on board blocking for the first time. Lol

@C.A.P.E. I’m not overly enthused but if there is enough blocking to force that thermal boundary south it’s not a bad look. March tends to not favor dry if you have cold around to create baroclinocity along the boundaries. 

[psuhoffman]

We’re at a crossroads the next day or so wrt our chances for another snow after this week. The long range guidance all has a similar look. There seems to be some “likely” features ahead. The pac will improve. Hard for it not too with a -30 soi today and the mjo firmly in 8 headed for 1 with decent amplitude.  The north pac ridge will be shifting east into an epo ridge. The pna will become less negative and looks neutral long range. But the se ridge is being caused by another factor and it’s not going away. 

So all that adds up to one key feature, high latitude ridging. It could be NAO/AO/EPO or a combo of the 3...but there has to be enough ridging over the top to suppress the TPV south enough to mute the SE ridge and get the boundary south of us. 

If that boundary gets south of us it’s a pattern we can work with. I do not buy that with an extreme soi drop the stj is about to go away. Add in the time of year. If you get cold around in March you get a super charged baroclinic zone along the boundary. None of that favors a prolonged dry pattern. There will be waves along the battle zone between cold and warm. 

If there isn’t enough ridging up top to suppress the TPV and the trough gets shunted over the SE ridge into Canada...well then we can start planning a big BBQ and what beer to bring!  

Analogs say it could go either way. March 1962 and 1993 show up day 8-11.  But so does March 2002!  

[frd]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could be NAO/AO/EPO or a combo of the 3...but there has to be enough ridging over the top to suppress the TPV south enough to mute the SE ridge and get the boundary south of us. 

I wonder IF the large and very intense North Atlantic Ocean BOMB , forecasted down to as low as  935mb,  will spawn another -NAO blip, and what the consequences will be, if any?

A blip like this one , ie. ( large cyclone breakers in the North Atlantic ) 

 

 

 

A bit dated but this event is progged this week coming up, so still something to keep an  eye on. 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

@psuhoffman

Ok, So I read this and then went what ?   

So Modaki is not good,  and is hyped by seasonal forecasters, is that what his message is ?  

Yet , in reading these boards for 25 years I have only seen good relationships with a Central Based Nino forcing.  

Not sure I get the message.  It has been discusssed by you,  CAPE and Bob in detail and for weeks the issues this year. Such as lack of coupling, weak Nino,  

QBO wrong direction, SH issues near Aussie, gradient poattern,  MT issues ,  the PDO.  Anyways just brought this here if you scroll down the actual post there are several commnets worth checking put.   

Of interest as well is, when you look at what Eric posted,  and you look at the OLR wonder if the OLR configuration is reinforcing the WAR ?

You can see the alternating almost wave like structure of higher OLR and then lower OLR and you can follow this path to the SW Atlantic Ocean.  

I know you are continuing to search for reason why WAR is so robust this year. 

 

[MJO812]

Check out the gfs after the 25th

Wow

[osfan24]

27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Check out the gfs after the 25th

Wow

What about it?

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

What about it?

I assume he is referring to the advertised visits from TPV daughters. Never know with him though.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Check out the gfs after the 25th

Wow

Nothin special there 

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re at a crossroads the next day or so wrt our chances for another snow after this week. The long range guidance all has a similar look. There seems to be some “likely” features ahead. The pac will improve. Hard for it not too with a -30 soi today and the mjo firmly in 8 headed for 1 with decent amplitude.  The north pac ridge will be shifting east into an epo ridge. The pna will become less negative and looks neutral long range. But the se ridge is being caused by another factor and it’s not going away. 

So all that adds up to one key feature, high latitude ridging. It could be NAO/AO/EPO or a combo of the 3...but there has to be enough ridging over the top to suppress the TPV south enough to mute the SE ridge and get the boundary south of us. 

If that boundary gets south of us it’s a pattern we can work with. I do not buy that with an extreme soi drop the stj is about to go away. Add in the time of year. If you get cold around in March you get a super charged baroclinic zone along the boundary. None of that favors a prolonged dry pattern. There will be waves along the battle zone between cold and warm. 

If there isn’t enough ridging up top to suppress the TPV and the trough gets shunted over the SE ridge into Canada...well then we can start planning a big BBQ and what beer to bring!  

Analogs say it could go either way. March 1962 and 1993 show up day 8-11.  But so does March 2002!  

If this were a Hollywood blockbuster, this is where it would all come together for victory.  The TPV and the SER would push on each other just enough to target five straight 30" + storms at you guys.  The SE would be like your loyal sidekick taking the bullet (the SER).

[CAPE]

@psuhoffman

No signs of "real" blocking on the 12z EPS. Looks like a decent cold period the end of the month into the first few days of March with the SE ridge flattened, but snow chances look very blah. Then, a transition to this..

 

[CAPE]

^That look wouldn't excite me at all given we will be into the first week of March.

[Fozz]

^What an awful NAO on that panel.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

Ok, So I read this and then went what ?   

So Modaki is not good,  and is hyped by seasonal forecasters, is that what his message is ?  

Yet , in reading these boards for 25 years I have only seen good relationships with a Central Based Nino forcing.  

Not sure I get the message.  It has been discusssed by you,  CAPE and Bob in detail and for weeks the issues this year. Such as lack of coupling, weak Nino,  

QBO wrong direction, SH issues near Aussie, gradient poattern,  MT issues ,  the PDO.  Anyways just brought this here if you scroll down the actual post there are several commnets worth checking put.   

Of interest as well is, when you look at what Eric posted,  and you look at the OLR wonder if the OLR configuration is reinforcing the WAR ?

You can see the alternating almost wave like structure of higher OLR and then lower OLR and you can follow this path to the SW Atlantic Ocean.  

I know you are continuing to search for reason why WAR is so robust this year. 

 

I am not getting sucked into another stupid debate with people that either don’t know what their talking about or have an agenda.  Tropical forcing east of the dateline is the best location and most correlated to cold for us. Forcing there is basically mjo phase 8-1.  So I don’t know what he is on about. If he is only making the point that right now this year it’s not helping...he might have an argument. Of course maybe we should wait until after Wednesday to decide if it helped or not lol.  But there is still a ridge either way.

If he is trying to make some broad assertion that forcing east of the dateline is bad he is full of bunk. He said around the dateline...that’s more ambiguous as that’s phase 7 which can promote a SE ridge. But a modoki often promotes forcing just east of there. 

There are also 2 subsets of modoki.  Weak and moderate. There has only ever been one strong Modoki 1958 and it also behaved like a moderate so we can probably lump them together. 

They both evolve similarly with genesis in the central pac and propagate east vs tradition nino which originate off the west coast of South America and propagate west. 

The difference is moderate to strong ones tend to take on basin wide characteristics for much of the winter before fading west. Weaker ones might take in basin wide characteristics for a time (this year did for about a month) before quickly fading west in January. All the warm water is now centered in the central pac like other weak modoki years. 

Some have started claiming the moderate to strong ones aren’t really modoki because from December to February they look basin wide. That would make years like 1958, 1964, 1966 1987, 2003, and 2010 not modoki.  Whatever

Years that were weaker and fit both modoki definitions were 1969, 1978, 1995, 2005, and 2015. This year fits in the weaker group. Notice this group has a much higher fail rate with years like 1969, 1995, and 2005. Even 1978 and 2015 weren’t blockbusters. Simply good winters here. The blockbusters were all in the other group!  

This is something I’ve been researching lately and obviously would have been good info 3 months ago and would have tempered my expectations some!  

But the fail of the weak modokis don’t come the same way. 1969 had a problematic pacific like this year but enough NAO that it crushed New England.  This year is like 1969 without the NAO block so they got screwed. 1995 was a train wreck in multiple ways. 2005 didn’t have any blocking early and only mediocre late. But the common thread is the weaker modoki are vulnerable to interference from other pattern drivers. Moderate to strong modoki ninos overwhelm the pattern and every single one was a blockbuster winter for the mid Atlantic. 

I was going to save this for the winter post mortem when it’s over but it’s pertineng to what you just posted. I’m not interested in this stupid labeling debate going on within the weather community and I’m even less interested in how some are playing games with the alternating definitions. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Fozz said:

^What an awful NAO on that panel.

If the 12z EPS progression were to verify, winter is likely over in 2 weeks. Lucky for us, the LR has been putrid this winter. Of course, the LR has mostly showed good to great looks that never verify, so this is probably how it will play out for real lol.

Pitchers and catchers!

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@psuhoffman

No signs of "real" blocking on the 12z EPS. Looks like a decent cold period the end of the month into the first few days of March with the SE ridge flattened, but snow chances look very blah. Then, a transition to this..

 

Yep but can’t blame the pac. That goods great day 8-12 but doesn’t help much because the SE ridge wins.  Something else is driving that right now. 

There are some snow hits day 10-15 in the eps. 2 absolute HECS solutions. Several others decent hits. So there is hope but the look is mediocre. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep but can’t blame the pac. That goods great day 8-12 but doesn’t help much because the SE ridge wins.  Something else is driving that right now. 

There are some snow hits day 10-15 in the eps. 2 absolute HECS solutions. Several others decent hits. So there is hope but the look is mediocre. 

Yeah, TNH influenced or whatever, but definitely not a Nino look.

[Fozz]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If the 12z EPS progression were to verify, winter is likely over in 2 weeks. Lucky for us, the LR has been putrid this winter. Of course, the LR has mostly showed good to great looks that never verify, so this is probably how it will play out for real lol.

Pitchers and catchers!

I’d take it with a grain of salt, at least for now. Sometimes things really do change for the better in March, but more likely maybe we are cursed.

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If the 12z EPS progression were to verify, winter is likely over in 2 weeks.

 

Mercy killing.

[frd]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not getting sucked into another stupid debate with people that either don’t know what their talking about or have an agenda.  Tropical forcing east of the dateline is the best location and most correlated to cold for us. Forcing there is basically mjo phase 8-1.  So I don’t know what he is on about. If he is only making the point that right now this year it’s not helping...he might have an argument. Of course maybe we should wait until after Wednesday to decide if it helped or not lol.  But there is still a ridge either way.

Yeah, not wasting my time to figure it out. 

He did state this back on Feb 10th 

and check out this near Aussie from HM's post yesterday.

 

  

[Amped]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep but can’t blame the pac. That goods great day 8-12 but doesn’t help much because the SE ridge wins.  Something else is driving that right now. 

There are some snow hits day 10-15 in the eps. 2 absolute HECS solutions. Several others decent hits. So there is hope but the look is mediocre. 

If we can get the 50/50 low further south that is a great pattern.   Would much rather see that than a pac torch.

[Waiting on snow]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep but can’t blame the pac. That goods great day 8-12 but doesn’t help much because the SE ridge wins.  Something else is driving that right now. 

There are some snow hits day 10-15 in the eps. 2 absolute HECS solutions. Several others decent hits. So there is hope but the look is mediocre. 

It's just a theory and I'm not a pro by any means, but what if the se ridge is a pattern driver more so than a reaction? We look for ridging to develop in AK, Greenland, etc to drive the pattern, but never hear mention of a mid latitude ridge like the se ridge driving things. Possibly its caused by sst's and then it does it's part to screw up the pattern? Regardless, I'm tired of that ****ing ridge ruining winter year after year!

[Fozz]

Just now, Waiting on snow said:

It's just a theory and I'm not a pro by any means, but what if the se ridge is a pattern driver more so than a reaction? We look for ridging to develop in AK, Greenland, etc to drive the pattern, but never hear mention of a mid latitude ridge like the se ridge driving things. Possibly its caused by sst's and then it does it's part to screw up the pattern? Regardless, I'm tired of that ****ing ridge ruining winter year after year!

Usually I'd expect a persistent SE ridge in a Nina, which is why the south tends to be warmer and drier than normal, but we're not in one this year. I know there was some talk of a +TNH, but that can't explain it since some of our very good winters had it too.

[cbmclean]

46 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

It's just a theory and I'm not a pro by any means, but what if the se ridge is a pattern driver more so than a reaction? We look for ridging to develop in AK, Greenland, etc to drive the pattern, but never hear mention of a mid latitude ridge like the se ridge driving things. Possibly its caused by sst's and then it does it's part to screw up the pattern? Regardless, I'm tired of that ****ing ridge ruining winter year after year!

It has certainly been a dominant force this decade.  I am hoping that it is related to the whatever is causing the almost comical inability of the -NAO to go negative in met winter.  That is known to be streaky, so perhaps if that flips, the SER will take a decade-long vacation.  Of course, I am just grasping at straws now.

[psuhoffman]

March 1993 is in the pattern analogs. I kind of see the possibility in the ensemble looks day 10-13.  It’s a LONG shot but the PV is sitting there displaces snd gets stretched and all with that monster epo ridge pressing on it from over the top all it would take is a strong enough piece to rotate around and dig in and there could be a monster phase in the east somewhere. 

Obviously getting that is low probability but I see how that progression is possible.  

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 1993 is in the pattern analogs. I kind of see the possibility in the ensemble looks day 10-13.  It’s a LONG shot but the PV is sitting there displaces snd gets stretched and all with that monster epo ridge pressing on it from over the top all it would take is a strong enough piece to rotate around and dig in and there could be a monster phase in the east somewhere. 

Obviously getting that is low probability but I see how that progression is possible.  

How did the MA fare during that seminal event?  Nothing but rain in Eastern NC but the mountains got walloped.  My wife lived near Asheville at the time and she was out of school for like two weeks.

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. @frd

JB said this today when opining regarding whether it’s the qbo and strat to bland for the eastern ridge.

“SOMETHING ELSE HAS TO BE GOING ON to have turned the TNH positive like this”

That seems to confirm my suspicions the TNH is an effect not a cause. Of course it still gets us no closer to a cause.  He thinks it’s a combination of lots of things probably.

He goes on to say...

“A lot of you on my side of the AGW issue do not want to hear this, but perhaps its overall warmed state of the oceans and the planet that result in different reactions than years of the analogs, many of them were years when the planet had a lower base state, That may be a bias on my part.”

I’ll give him some credit for admitting he has been wrong finally and that second statement which runs antithetical to his agenda.  He seems to be having the same discussion inside his own head that we are on here. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

How did the MA fare during that seminal event?  Nothing but rain in Eastern NC but the mountains got walloped.  My wife lived near Asheville at the time and she was out of school for like two weeks.

About a foot of snow here in Baltimore!