The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Can’t get a better 50/50. That’s even southwest of 50/50. But it’s got to overcome just a brutal SE ridge. Even just a little less ridge and we would be good but man that trough ridge axis is awful. 

That vortex has to be a monster and ideally displaced to the sw of the 50-50 position for this to work imo. Without that anomalous feature, that is an absolute disaster of a long wave pattern for a MA winter storm lol.

[WxUSAF]

New thread for this week’s storm is pinned. Keep this for unicorn NAOs

[MD Snow]

39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If I had literally nothing else to do, it would be an interesting exercise to go back and find all the runs this winter the GEFS has advertised a legit -NAO, and what the actual outcome was in real time. Its been awful.

Let’s do another exercise, let’s go back and look at how often a 372hr ensemble panel on any of the globals has varified this year? 

 

Edit: I don’t think it’s been brought up but the geps has stayed consistent with the SE ridge idea running the immediate pattern for our area ever since like middle of January while all the LR guidance has waffled back and forth. IMO it’s been the best over the last month. It just hasn’t been mentioned because it hasn’t given us “the look.”

[CAPE]

Just now, MD Snow said:

Let’s do another exercise, let’s go back and look at how often a 372hr ensemble panel has varified this year? 

Its the same exercise. Mostly it showed epic NA blocking with an EPO ridge, which never came to fruition.  

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If I had literally nothing else to do, it would be an interesting exercise to go back and find all the runs this winter the GEFS has advertised a legit -NAO, and what the actual outcome was in real time. Its been awful.

It’s been almost every run. The gefs has had a -NAO day 15-16 pretty much from Xmas on every single run. A few times it faked us out by progressing it to day 11 or so but it always hit the wall there. 

The eps wasn’t much better. Remember the eps only goes to day 15 so a lot of those runs where it was just starting to develop the -NAO day 15 would have looked like the gefs day 16 and the weeklies confirmed that. But the eps was slightly better and at tones would lose the blocking and push it outside the ensemble range at least. 

But on the whole if we were grading day 10+ they both got an F but maybe the eps was a less crappy F lol. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

New thread for this week’s storm is pinned. Keep this for unicorn NAOs

Ironically we might be done with that. Gefs finally caved. Euro had been progressing toward a raging positive NAO. The window for a boundary wave early March might be all we have left to track. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s been almost every run. The gefs has had a -NAO day 15-16 pretty much from Xmas on every single run. A few times it faked us out by progressing it to day 11 or so but it always hit the wall there. 

The eps wasn’t much better. Remember the eps only goes to day 15 so a lot of those runs where it was just starting to develop the -NAO day 15 would have looked like the gefs day 16 and the weeklies confirmed that. But the eps was slightly better and at tones would lose the blocking and push it outside the ensemble range at least. 

But on the whole if we were grading day 10+ they both got an F but maybe the eps was a less crappy F lol. 

EPS was much less enthusiastic about a legit west-based block than the GEFS, but it did pretty consistently show weaker ridging further N/NE.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ironically we might be done with that. Gefs finally caved. Euro had been progressing toward a raging positive NAO. The window for a boundary wave early March might be all we have left to track. 

It will probably be back to a semi-epic look at 12z lol.

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s been almost every run. The gefs has had a -NAO day 15-16 pretty much from Xmas on every single run. A few times it faked us out by progressing it to day 11 or so but it always hit the wall there. 

The eps wasn’t much better. Remember the eps only goes to day 15 so a lot of those runs where it was just starting to develop the -NAO day 15 would have looked like the gefs day 16 and the weeklies confirmed that. But the eps was slightly better and at tones would lose the blocking and push it outside the ensemble range at least. 

But on the whole if we were grading day 10+ they both got an F but maybe the eps was a less crappy F lol. 

Imo geps has been spot on for like a month. Never broke down the SE ridge start to finish. It’s never been given any attention because it never gave us any good looks. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS was much less enthusiastic about a legit west-based block than the GEFS, but it did pretty consistently show weaker ridging further N/NE.

The last 2 weeks or so yes. Back in January before it all went sideways it was showing a pretty good block at range too for a while. I do think the eps stopping a day earlier saved it from as much embarrassment because several times it was developing a NAO ridge and ended right before it got great. Weeklies would show the epic block day 16 on. 

I’m not disputing the gefs was worse. It was. But the eps was hinting at the same general idea just less extreme. The last 2 weeks the eps kind of cooled to the idea of blocking but the first half of January it was faking us out bad too. 

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It will probably be back to a semi-epic look at 12z lol.

Maybe. Eps moves towards the gefs like 3 runs ago but then went right back. Maybe gefs does the same. Won’t change my mind though unless I see the change break inside day 10. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Imo geps has been spot on for like a month. Never broke down the SE ridge start to finish. It’s never been given any attention because it never gave us any good looks. 

The geps doesn’t get any attention because day 10-15 it scores lower than climo. You are right for our specific location for the last few weeks it’s been the best.  It never really went for blocking and so never broke the ridge. But it’s awful in general with atrocious verification scores and so you can’t trust it. Sure it might be right sometimes but there is no way to know when. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@psuhoffman & @C.A.P.E.

The SOI daily contribution number today was -24 . That makes it 6 days in a row this week that the SOI has been a double digit negative number, including 3 days that were over -20 or better, & 2 other days that were -19. 

Most models are showing the MJO taking a slow track through phase 8 & the Euro is taking it into phase 1 later this month.

Most of the time there is about a 1 week or so lag until the effects of the SOI & MJO impact our pattern in North America.

Do you guys think that the EPS & GEFS will respond to these impacts over the next few days & show a better pattern for late February & early March ?

[Fozz]

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The last 2 weeks or so yes. Back in January before it all went sideways it was showing a pretty good block at range too for a while. I do think the eps stopping a day earlier saved it from as much embarrassment because several times it was developing a NAO ridge and ended right before it got great. Weeklies would show the epic block day 16 on. 

I’m not disputing the gefs was worse. It was. But the eps was hinting at the same general idea just less extreme. The last 2 weeks the eps kind of cooled to the idea of blocking but the first half of January it was faking us out bad too. 

If you think winter will most likely end after a transient chance in the first week of March (assuming the -NAO never happens), do you think it ends for the entire northeast, or just our region? How would it affect NNE's ski areas? (I'm considering a trip there)

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@psuhoffman & @C.A.P.E.

The SOI daily contribution number today was -24 . That makes it 6 days in a row this week that the SOI has been a double digit negative number, including 3 days that were over -20 or better, & 2 other days that were -19. 

Most models are showing the MJO taking a slow track through phase 8 & the Euro is taking it into phase 1 later this month.

Most of the time there is about a 1 week or so lag until the effects of the SOI & MJO impact our pattern in North America.

Do you guys think that the EPS & GEFS will respond to these impacts over the next few days & show a better pattern for late February & early March ?

Maybe. That was what I expected. But it should be showing up by now. 

[HighStakes]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@psuhoffman & @C.A.P.E.

The SOI daily contribution number today was -24 . That makes it 6 days in a row this week that the SOI has been a double digit negative number, including 3 days that were over -20 or better, & 2 other days that were -19. 

Most models are showing the MJO taking a slow track through phase 8 & the Euro is taking it into phase 1 later this month.

Most of the time there is about a 1 week or so lag until the effects of the SOI & MJO impact our pattern in North America.

Do you guys think that the EPS & GEFS will respond to these impacts over the next few days & show a better pattern for late February & early March ?

I think HM mentioned something about a recurving typhoon yesterday in a tweet. JB also referenced it. This feature would probably be the kick in the butt we need to get things rolling if in fact that possibility is still on the table.

[jaydreb]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow maps are wrong. We figured that out months ago. So don’t look at them. Don’t use them. They have a faulty algorithm. But you should t use those things anyway. I’m freaking tired of people posting those maps and saying omg look how crazy the fv3 is. It’s not actually predicting that much snow. You can look at the actual run and figure it out. If the 850 temp is +3 it’s not snow just because some faulty map says so. People just need to stop being lazy and do the work of interpreting the actual run and not rely on a stupid snow map.  

That said the fv3 has had a bias to over amp storms and show big snows but it’s not nearly as bad as those screwed up maps that count everything that falls under 40 degrees as snow makes it seem. You just have to use common sense. 

CWG article calling out the FV3.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If you think winter will most likely end after a transient chance in the first week of March, do you think it ends for the entire northeast, or just our region? How would it affect NNE's ski areas? (I'm considering a trip there)

No idea lol. Depends. That have a better shot to stay north of the boundary but in March they can get pretty warm too if the ao/NAO goes positive and the whole conus gets routed. 

[Fozz]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No idea lol. Depends. That have a better shot to stay north of the boundary but in March they can get pretty warm too if the ao/NAO goes positive and the whole conus gets routed. 

Well damn.... I'm just going to hope the GEFS and EPS are still missing the MJO's influence.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

CWG article calling out the FV3.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/

I wasn’t saying the fv3 is good. It seems to have a serious low height bias that leads to over amped solutions and big storms. But people keep using those crazy flawed maps as a pile on type thing. Like hey look the fv3 says 30” of snow in NC. No it doesn’t. The surface temp is 34. The 850 is 40. It’s rain. There is some level at 32 and the flawed algorithm for the map says snow. But that is not what the model shows. It’s bad enough as it is without us piling on using wrong clown maps. 

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t saying the fv3 is good. It seems to have a serious low height bias that leads to over amped solutions and big storms. But people keep using those crazy flawed maps as a pile on type thing. Like hey look the fv3 says 30” of snow in NC. No it doesn’t. The surface temp is 34. The 850 is 40. It’s rain. There is some level at 32 and the flawed algorithm for the map says snow. But that is not what the model shows. It’s bad enough as it is without us piling on using wrong clown maps. 

So that’s a problem with Tropical Tidbits or whatever site is creating the map?  Does the model itself put out data like “QPF as snow” or something like that?  Or do you have to figure it out yourself from combining temps and QPF panels (and maybe soundings too)?

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Well damn.... I'm just going to hope the GEFS and EPS are still missing the MJO's influence.

Spring skiing in March can be fun though. Was skiing in a t shirt at wildcat 2 years ago. Just don’t wait too long if we get a warm March or the base starts to go. But they can survive a couple weeks of warm before that happens as long as it re-freezes at night. Once the night temps start to stay above freezing with above freezing dee points that’s when it goes fast. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

So that’s a problem with Tropical Tidbits or whatever site is creating the map?  Does the model itself put out data like “QPF as snow” or something like that?  Or do you have to figure it out yourself from combining temps and QPF panels (and maybe soundings too)?

I’m not sure if that feature is being generated by ncep or by each vendor. Typically the snow maps are a feature of each private vendor that uses their own derived method to calculate snow. Typically by using critical thicknesses and temps at key levels. That’s why they sometimes look different on different sites. Some are better than others. Some are better in one situation than others. But the fv3 one is a trainwreck. It’s worse than the gefs which is also flawed and shows anything close to snow as snow at 10-1. Fv3 seems even more liberal. But no matter why generates it we noticed it immediately and said it’s wrong don’t use it yet people keep posting it and referencing it as evidence the fv3 sucks. The fv3 has legit issues but using those maps to blast it is hitting below the belt imo. 

[psuhoffman]

Soi -24

mjo keeps correcting more and more into 8/1.

Yet the pattern is showing absolutely no response. Bob called this one!  Miss ya @Bob Chill

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It will probably be back to a semi-epic look at 12z lol.

@psuhoffman

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Soi -24

mjo keeps correcting more and more into 8/1.

Yet the pattern is showing absolutely no response. Bob called this one!  Miss ya @Bob Chill

Maybe we start seeing it today 

12z GFS op wants to drop the PV hammer for the beginning of March. GEFS seems to agree.

 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe we start seeing it today 

12z GFS op wants to drop the PV hammer for the beginning of March. GEFS seems to agree.

 

Sure, why shouldn't we believe it?..its only around 12-14 days away (trying to be as sarcastic as possible).

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

@psuhoffman

Get that on eps AND inside 240 hours and I’ll bite. 

Odd thing is the mjo and soi have been dominant players and both argue for that look.  But the guidance has mostly not budged in believable time leads.

JB yapping about the Tropical/Northern hemisphere positive phase but from the little I know about that I’ve always considered it more of a pattern effect not a cause.  Maybe I’m wrong. Or maybe he is BSing again. I’ll look into it. 

 

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. something else is causing the SE ridge. 

Look at this...

the pacific is right. That ridge isn’t being pumped by the pac if anything the pac is trying to fight it. Trough east of Hawaii. The north pac ridge has pushed east into a true poleward -epo ridge.  Pna is neutral but ridging is trying to press into the west. -NAO. -AO. Ridge bridge 

And the se ridge remains!!!!  And it’s not just a temporary thing. It’s only somewhat muted by all that then bounces right back!

there is another problem somewhere causing that ridge. I have no idea what it is. But the issue is if there is another cause and it’s a dominant influence expecting the mjo to help might not work. Looks like even on runs where the pattern gets right in EVERY other way that ridge fights and wins. 

[Amped]

HUge improvement on the Euro day 9-10. -EPO block and the SE ridge has been stomped  and shoved SE of Bermuda.