snowdude Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: any chance you could post kuchera yoda? Big difference on Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Take kukaracha and divide by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 40 minutes ago, snowdude said: Big difference on Kuchera. Ooh, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 hours ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: fv3 has got to be the worst model of the bunch Seriously it's been spitting out ridiculous totals for SWFEs all season. I dont think it handles sleet well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, ChasingFlakes said: Seriously it's been spitting out ridiculous totals for SWFEs all season. I dont think it handles sleet well. The snow maps are wrong. We figured that out months ago. So don’t look at them. Don’t use them. They have a faulty algorithm. But you should t use those things anyway. I’m freaking tired of people posting those maps and saying omg look how crazy the fv3 is. It’s not actually predicting that much snow. You can look at the actual run and figure it out. If the 850 temp is +3 it’s not snow just because some faulty map says so. People just need to stop being lazy and do the work of interpreting the actual run and not rely on a stupid snow map. That said the fv3 has had a bias to over amp storms and show big snows but it’s not nearly as bad as those screwed up maps that count everything that falls under 40 degrees as snow makes it seem. You just have to use common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Looking at the 0z runs as a whole, not a big difference but slightly less favorable overall. Given the set up we need that front end to come in fast and furious, especially for the coastal plain. More wiggle room for places NW of the cities. I want to see solid holds or improvement each run, not incremental degradation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 06z GFS has one panel of snow into DC before switch over to freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, Mordecai said: 06z GFS has one panel of snow into DC before switch over to freezing rain Just what we don't want to see, but usually happens lol. CAD is weaker and front end is weak sauce. Hopefully this is not a "trend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Icon still has a decent initial thump before switchover to rain, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I am interested to see how far N that primary low can progress, and exactly when the coastal gets going. If the initial CAD is strong there should be a transfer before the primary tracks too far north, with a coastal low developing just to our south. That should aid in keeping the lower levels cold, esp NW of the fall line. More precarious for coastal areas depending on the exact timing and location of the low forming along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking at the 0z runs as a whole, not a big difference but slightly less favorable overall. Given the set up we need that front end to come in fast and furious, especially for the coastal plain. More wiggle room for places NW of the cities. I want to see solid holds or improvement each run, not incremental degradation. I wasn’t thrilled with the 0z runs. Not a disaster but they all took a step back from the previous runs. I was kind of hoping to see that primary trend east and jump to the secondary sooner. It trended the other way. On a personal note I would like to get ccb’d once this year. The only 2 amplified systems to track under us missed me to the south. Everything else was either weak systems or a nw track with some front end waa. Snow is snow but what I get excited for and am really in this for is tracking a low amplifying to our se and watching the Ccb develop and move over and tracking the banding with the deform. Been none of that this year. It’s all trying to get scraps from cutters. I just want one sub 1000 mb low that tracks from va beach to just off ocean city. Even if it’s only a 3-6” storm that would be more fun than these setups imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t thrilled with the 0z runs. Not a disaster but they all took a step back from the previous runs. I was kind of hoping to see that primary trend east and jump to the secondary sooner. It trended the other way. On a personal note I would like to get ccb’d once this year. The only 2 amplified systems to track under us missed me to the south. Everything else was either weak systems or a nw track with some front end waa. Snow is snow but what I get excited for and am really in this for is tracking a low amplifying to our se and watching the Ccb develop and move over and tracking the banding with the deform. Been none of that this year. It’s all trying to get scraps from cutters. I just want one sub 1000 mb low that tracks from va beach to just off ocean city. Even if it’s only a 3-6” storm that would be more fun than these setups imo. I didn't want to overstate it for obvious reasons, but I wasn't nuts about it either. Might see better trends at 12z. Normally I would not invest at all in a set up like this as it almost always ends up completely underwhelming here, but this winter, lol, gotta take what I can get. The CAD needs to be legit, and if that continues to trend weaker on guidance I will lose interest fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am interested to see how far N that primary low can progress, and exactly when the coastal gets going. If the initial CAD is strong there should be a transfer before the primary tracks too far north, with a coastal low developing just to our south. That should aid in keeping the lower levels cold, esp NW of the fall line. More precarious for coastal areas depending on the exact timing and location of the low forming along the coast. Still time. It wasn’t a disaster run. But the ridging had trended flatter then reversed last night. We can overcome some ridging in this setup, look at PD2, but the ridging being shown now is kind of on the extreme of what we can work with. If the primary tracks up too far west the waa forcing will dampen and we lose the thump. Plus we would get a deluge after anyways. Need to get the primary into eastern TN and jump to the coast if we want the 6”+ results on the coastal plain imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 EPS cutback some which is to be expected considering overnight trends but still shows 5” for DC and 4” for Baltimore. Can’t complain about that. I’ll set my happiness bar at 3”. If I can get 3” it’ll be my 2nd biggest storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t thrilled with the 0z runs. Not a disaster but they all took a step back from the previous runs. I was kind of hoping to see that primary trend east and jump to the secondary sooner. It trended the other way. On a personal note I would like to get ccb’d once this year. The only 2 amplified systems to track under us missed me to the south. Everything else was either weak systems or a nw track with some front end waa. Snow is snow but what I get excited for and am really in this for is tracking a low amplifying to our se and watching the Ccb develop and move over and tracking the banding with the deform. Been none of that this year. It’s all trying to get scraps from cutters. I just want one sub 1000 mb low that tracks from va beach to just off ocean city. Even if it’s only a 3-6” storm that would be more fun than these setups imo. Think I might disagree with you a little here PSU. Though the picture was somewhat muddied as we were seeing a weaker primary, I did think the EPS had a slightly more easterly track and that we were possibly seeing a quicker transfer to the coast as we are seeing the secondary taking over quicker then the previous run. Also the stronger High to the NE combined with the weaker primary argues for a quicker transfer. Now whether it is in time for our region is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still time. It wasn’t a disaster run. But the ridging had trended flatter then reversed last night. We can overcome some ridging in this setup, look at PD2, but the ridging being shown now is kind of on the extreme of what we can work with. If the primary tracks up too far west the waa forcing will dampen and we lose the thump. Plus we would get a deluge after anyways. Need to get the primary into eastern TN and jump to the coast if we want the 6”+ results on the coastal plain imo Long range the battle continues. Eps and gefs look similar day 10 then diverge. Eps breaks down the NAO completely and lifts the trough into Canada. Gefs strengthens the blocking and so the trough is further south. No blink by either camp yet. Geps is in between fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Still time. It wasn’t a disaster run. But the ridging had trended flatter then reversed last night. We can overcome some ridging in this setup, look at PD2, but the ridging being shown now is kind of on the extreme of what we can work with. If the primary tracks up too far west the waa forcing will dampen and we lose the thump. Plus we would get a deluge after anyways. Need to get the primary into eastern TN and jump to the coast if we want the 6”+ results on the coastal plain imo Agreed. Been keeping an eye on this. At this point it doesn't seem likely- maybe W TN. Either way its going to rain here, I am just hoping for strong initial CAD and good overrunning for the beginning of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think I might disagree with you a little here PSU. Though the picture was somewhat muddied as we were seeing a weaker primary, I did think the EPS had a slightly more easterly track and that we were possibly seeing a quicker transfer to the coast as we are seeing the secondary taking over quicker then the previous run. Also the stronger High to the NE combined with the weaker primary argues for a quicker transfer. Now whether it is in time for our region is another story. Seems the eps was evolving towards holding more back and cutting the main energy a day later. Before that it did show slightly more coastal but imo the main height falls and trough axis was still to our west. But by holding back it shears out the initial waa push more so that’s why the decrease in snow. It did that across all guidance overnight. But it was still a decent result not a disaster and one run isn’t a trend. I was discouraged but not distraught by the runs last night. I wanted to see another improvement like 12z and we took a half step back instead. But I’m not saying this is dead or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Long range the battle continues. Eps and gefs look similar day 10 then diverge. Eps breaks down the NAO completely and lifts the trough into Canada. Gefs strengthens the blocking and so the trough is further south. No blink by either camp yet. Geps is in between fwiw. Yeah I didn't like that EPS look. Its going with the progression we discussed the other night, and the way the latest weeklies went. If that plays out, March most likely wont be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Probably should start a thread for the mid week threat, maybe after the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Probably should start a thread for the mid week threat, maybe after the 12z runs? So that one can disappear too just like today's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 But...here comes March 1993 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I didn't like that EPS look. Its going with the progression we discussed the other night, and the way the latest weeklies went. If that plays out, March most likely wont be rocking. The guidance analogs for day 8-11 show how this could go either way. There are a few dates right before snowstorms. Some big ones even like March 62 and 76. But there are also years that lead to absolute crap torch marches. The difference is blocking. I looked at the h5 for the analog years. From day 10 if we don’t get NAO blocking that evolves into a torch pattern. If we do it evolves into a cold snowy March. Given the trend on the NAO all winter that’s not exactly a comforting fact. But it is what it is. Need the gefs to win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Noooo that’s too much blocking. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Can’t get a better 50/50. That’s even southwest of 50/50. But it’s got to overcome just a brutal SE ridge. Even just a little less ridge and we would be good but man that trough ridge axis is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can’t get a better 50/50. That’s even southwest of 50/50. But it’s got to overcome just a brutal SE ridge. Even just a little less ridge and we would be good but man that trough ridge axis is awful. Dang it! Man that is frustrating...we seem to have trended toward the transient 50/50...and yet the se ridge (too my eyes it had seemed to look flatter at 12z yesterday...but not quite as much at 18z and 0z) Wonder if that's the main thing we gotta focus on to see if we actually have a chance here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Oof! Man that is frustrating...we seem to have trended toward the transient 50/50...and yet the se ridge...Wonder if that's the main thing we gotta focus on to see if we actually have a chance here! You are always looking for one thing. It’s never one thing. There are a million moving parts to this and they all have to play together in a way that works just right. It’s complicated. And you keep trying to simplify it to one thing that will determine our fate. On that frame the 50/50 is perfect. But what if on future runs the se ridge trends better but the 50/50 shifts east. Could end up even worse. Or the ridge improves but the 50/50 trends even further southwest and squashes the front runner waa wave south of us. Or both of those cooperate but a more consolidated wave bombs in the west and not enough energy ejects to get good waa. Or the high trends weaker. Or the primary gets too strong or hangs on too long. Or an asteroid hits the earth. We can’t just focus on one thing. There are a ton a variables and they all matter and how they interact with each other will determine our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 @C.A.P.E. gefs just caved. Oh well we kinda knew in the back of our minds that was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Even the crap progression would still create a temporary window around March 1-5 as the trough sliding to our north compresses the flow and creates some confluence to our north and we could get a wave. But it’s not a good blockbuster coastal look. A wave system like March 2015 would be our best bet. And it would be transient and by March 8th winter would be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. gefs just caved. Oh well we kinda knew in the back of our minds that was coming. If I had literally nothing else to do, it would be an interesting exercise to go back and find all the runs this winter the GEFS has advertised a legit -NAO, and what the actual outcome was in real time. Its been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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