Jandurin Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 they only declared the nino like 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Has there been anything showing a transfer to a coastal though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: lol. I can't buy in to the FV3 amounts, yet but maybe 6-10 sort of like the EURO showed especially if the qpf keeps increasing. It’s all about that hp and the CAD. That high slides and poof. Frankly between the SE ridge and the west track I don’t know what the heck is going on..but as the late Bob Chill said we can snow in phase 5 and rain in phase 1. I miss him already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I miss @Bob Chill Mappy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I’m no expert but I do see that GEFS snowfall mean through Weds went from 3.5” at 12z to 5.5” at 18z. I’m sure a lot of mixed precip. Pretty classic CAD look on the mean. Huge hit in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS, at least at 12z, still way too far northwest for a coastal transfer. Need to see that improve a bit. The good news is the low is weak, so shift it southeast and it should want to transfer with a pretty strong high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Looking ahead towards the beginning of March, this wouldn't be too bad a look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 40 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I had expected a more energetic winter this year given the return to El Niño, but as we see, it’s only one piece to a larger jigsaw puzzle. We can have surprises during the upcoming three weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: EPS, at least at 12z, still way too far northwest for a coastal transfer. Need to see that improve a bit. The good news is the low is weak, so shift it southeast and it should want to transfer with a pretty strong high to the north. I see 2 general camps for the primary among the members. The W. TN camp with a transfer to NC coast would work just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I see 2 general camps for the primary among the members. The W. TN camp with a transfer to NC coast would work just fine. What’s the other camp? Camp e1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, Jandurin said: they only declared the nino like 2 days ago And already producing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What’s the other camp? Camp e1? There are another cluster of lows into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking ahead towards the beginning of March, this wouldn't be too bad a look.. Best part is it starts the progression to that around day 10. Not way out at day 15. By day 11 it’s alresdy getting good and that result is pretty inevitable (is day 10/11 is right) Need the eps to get on board. But the gefs is finally progressing the look in time. Eps took a move towards that day 8-10 then regresses. It’s been bad all winter day 11-15 though so maybe it’s gonna lose this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Regarding the nino. They don’t declare until there are 3 months running of nino conditions. But the nino is fading and will likely be back to neutral oni soon. The declaration is mostly retrospective if anything. It’s not useful for predictive purposes. We had a >.5 oni for a while now. The oni is on the way back down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Best part is it starts the progression to that around day 10. Not way out at day 15. By day 11 it’s alresdy getting good and that result is pretty inevitable (is day 10/11 is right) Need the eps to get on board. But the gefs is finally progressing the look in time. Eps took a move towards that day 8-10 then regresses. It’s been bad all winter day 11-15 though so maybe it’s gonna lose this one. Yeah I wasn't nuts about EPS D12 to 15. Looks like it wants to retro again and pull the trough back to the west some. Subtle though and it could be noise. Need another run or 2 to see where its headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Regarding the nino. They don’t declare until there are 3 months running of nino conditions. But the nino is fading and will likely be back to neutral oni soon. The declaration is mostly retrospective if anything. It’s not useful for predictive purposes. We had a >.5 oni for a while now. The oni is on the way back down now. recancel the uncanceled nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jandurin said: recancel the uncanceled nino It was a weak modoki nino. But not all weak modoki ninos are good. 94-95 was much worse. Weak ninos can sometimes be disrupted by other influences since the enso signal is weak. It happens. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t a nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 *recancel the uncanceled nino positive winter effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Cips shows a classic MA screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 median 72h snowfall based on top 15 analogs using nam ?????????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jandurin said: median 72h snowfall based on top 15 analogs using nam ?????????????????????? GFS analogs don't look much better, and I'm not saying I think it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Will be very cold here 3/1-3/3 Not now. Major differences in NAM so far. (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GFS actually has a couple of inches on the 108hr analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS actually has a couple of inches on the 108hr analogs. GFS has trouble with CAD so add like 10-20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps mean high temp for Wednesday for Carroll county made a pretty decent jump down ..barely above freezing....combined with many members showing qpf near 2 inches . Could be a heck of a winter storm. It wouldn't shock me with that kind of qpf potential if some future op runs show a 12"+ snow thump for many . ....regardless.. fun tracking weekend ahead . You’ll do ok. Good tracking for your county. I think it will be a colder version of early this week. I will be curious to see what the 0z runs say and if they hold or get colder. I like to be inside the 540 line for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 DT is literally trolling on Twitter....bashing every met that mentions Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: DT is literally trolling on Twitter....bashing every met that mentions Tuesday Maybe but it's hard to find those Tweets among his various insights on Constitutional law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, jewell2188 said: DT is literally trolling on Twitter....bashing every met that mentions Tuesday What does he have against Tuesday? Not a CAD fan? CAD makes some people angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 ICON gets rid of the high too quickly... snow at 108 turns to wintry mix by 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I like that the icon comes in hot and heavy...much better than light returns while the 850 line races north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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