Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 so Bob is going to sit out what could be our 2nd best storm this season lol....okay...thats like Tom Brady playing all the regular season games but sitting out the AFC championship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not to be a downer, but it is worth noting the FV3 does flip to rain and dumps ~0.75"+ in the 24 hours after that change-over. Of course the same amount or more falls before that, as snow/ice. I wonder though if it's not doing CAD long enough? Still... it's a good run outside of the rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, yoda said: I wonder though if it's not doing CAD long enough? Still... it's a good run outside of the rain lol Probably isn't holding CAD quite enough...and yeah, it is a much better run than previously for sure! Sort of related, I think the Euro just kind of dry-slotted us instead at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so Bob is going to sit out what could be our 2nd best storm this season lol....okay...thats like Tom Brady playing all the regular season games but sitting out the AFC championship Hope not. He is a good egg. Maybe his inner weenie will pop out and convince him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. Depends how far north the primary tracks, the strength of the CAD, and when/where, and to what degree the coastal develops. If there is no coastal development/transfer, there will be a transition to rain as the mids and low level temps will warm quicker, from SE to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: so Bob is going to sit out what could be our 2nd best storm this season lol....okay...thats like Tom Brady playing all the regular season games but sitting out the AFC championship He’s probably just enjoying his 65 degrees while he can. He will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Depends how far north the primary tracks, the strength of the CAD, and when/where, and to what degree the coastal develops. If there is no coastal development/transfer, there will be a transition to rain as the mids and low level temps will warm quicker, from SE to NW. for this kind of event...and how dicey the 500mb are...i mean there is a western trough and a SE ridge!...not seeing a surface low is kind of saving us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: He’s probably just enjoying his 65 degrees while he can. He will be back. yea but he is going to come back as some cyborg with no sense of humor apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: for this kind of event...and how dicey the 500mb are...i mean there is a western trough and a SE ridge!...not seeing a surface low is kind of saving us... Not sure the wedge holds without some coastal development. Ideally the primary tracks into TN and we see a coastal form off of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Snow/sleet, whatever. Its frozen, and better than 12z. Lets keep it moving in a favorable direction. No setbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snow/sleet, whatever. Its frozen, and better than 12z. Lets keep it moving in a favorable direction. No setbacks. All I know is I see greens over me. Man, Snowshoe gets dumped on. Wish I was skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. Absolutely...I don't think there's any way to avoid some kind of all-rain at some point with this setup. But it would be nice if that period occurred during a relative dry-slot as the main precip moved out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: yea but he is going to come back as some cyborg with no sense of humor apparently Be like Jon Snow. We weren't quite sure, but yet, we knew it was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 37 minutes ago, Ji said: what feels good is that its Friday night and the storm basiccally develops Monday nights. its not 5-7 days away. My demarcation point of when i start taking a storm seriously is when it still has it at 132 hours. We are basically at 96 hours and thats a big surge of moisture lol The storm is a lock dude. Precip type isn’t. That’s our main concern. The mountain top would be stronger CAD and redevelopment off of hatteras. Middle solution is what we have now. Valley is a delayed arrival and a Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snow/sleet, whatever. Its frozen, and better than 12z. Lets keep it moving in a favorable direction. No setbacks. We’re gonna I’ve setbacks. That’s just the nature of the game. Nobody needs to jump. That map is probably peak FV3. Nowhere else to go but down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I miss @Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We’re gonna I’ve setbacks. That’s just the nature of the game. Nobody needs to jump. That map is probably peak FV3. Nowhere else to go but down. So I’m not getting 17 inches of frozen? This is a fine kettle of fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I miss @Bob Chill Hopefully he will be back sometime tomorrow to bring this home for us. Maybe being my Valentine wore him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I miss @Bob Chill He will be back shortly I bet. He cant stay out with this potential on the table. @Bob Chill get yo ass back up in here dude. We want/need your analysis on this flawed, yet desperately needed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm is a lock dude. Precip type isn’t. That’s our main concern. The mountain top would be stronger CAD and redevelopment off of hatteras. Middle solution is what we have now. Valley is a delayed arrival and a Rainer. At the risk of annoying somebody with a question (but it's off model hours so it oughta be okay, lol)... I'm trying to learn how that redevelopment off of Hatteras would work. So say the low trends to eastern TN...then what happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Don't fret bro, I've got a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Though a long ways out, I like the look on this one at day 4. It will have abundant moisture running into a CAD wedge which more times than not yields something for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I had expected a more energetic winter this year given the return to El Niño, but as we see, it’s only one piece to a larger jigsaw puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: I had expected a more energetic winter this year given the return to El Niño, but as we see, it’s only one piece to a larger jigsaw puzzle. We didn't have an El Nino until yesterday. We should see atmospheric response by mid April I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Don't fret bro, I've got a feeling. A feeling you say? More than a feeling perhaps? That would mean Boston is in the game. Can’t have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: A feeling you say? More than a feeling perhaps? That would mean Boston is in the game. Can’t have that lol. I can't buy in to the FV3 amounts, yet but maybe 6-10 sort of like the EURO showed especially if the qpf keeps increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Has there been anything showing a transfer to a coastal though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Who would have thought our biggest opportunity would come from a fading nino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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