psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:17 PM, WEATHER53 said: Will be very cold here 3/1-3/3 Expand Mjo progression would support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:18 PM, psuhoffman said: Mjo progression would support that. Expand one of the thing HM talked about where these sneak attacks of -NAO....and there happens to be one for Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:12 PM, psuhoffman said: For the love of GOD....call JB and DO NOT LET HIM UNCANCEL WINTER!!!! Tie him up or smash his computer if you have too...but please god don't let him uncancel it. Expand And DT. Or has he cancelled, uncancelled, and cancelled again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:15 PM, Ji said: ive learned that everyone has a long way to go. Earlier we thought that the storm fizziling this saturday and not becoming a 50 50 low might turn the wed storm into rain...weather is gonna do what it wants to...no matter what phase. One thing forecasters should consider is not to change anything for 24-48 hours after bad runs. You dont know if its a hiccup...or trend.....you can literally go from a weenie GFS ensembles run to winter over in 12 hours per modeling and then back to weenie 24 hours later Expand AMEN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:22 PM, Ji said: one of the thing HM talked about where these sneak attacks of -NAO....and there happens to be one for Wed Expand I think the orientation of the 50/50 trended better also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:15 PM, Ji said: ive learned that everyone has a long way to go. Earlier we thought that the storm fizziling this saturday and not becoming a 50 50 low might turn the wed storm into rain...weather is gonna do what it wants to...no matter what phase. One thing forecasters should consider is not to change anything for 24-48 hours after bad runs. You dont know if its a hiccup...or trend.....you can literally go from a weenie GFS ensembles run to winter over in 12 hours per modeling and then back to weenie 24 hours later Expand That would be a disaster! "Sorry we missed the thunderstorms in our forecast. They didn't show up two days ago." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:26 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That would be a disaster! "Sorry we missed the thunderstorms in our forecast. They didn't show up two days ago." lol Expand Nuance is not your thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 7:59 PM, Snow88 said: 8 Expand I wonder when was the last time Phase 8 was with such -PNA? I agree.. the "precip event" could trend colder. Edit: MJO is pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:34 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder when was the last time Phase 8 was with such -PNA? I agree.. the "precip event" could trend colder. Expand NAM says Sunday's event clearly trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:34 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder when was the last time Phase 8 was with such -PNA? I agree.. the "precip event" could trend colder. Edit: MJO is pretty weak. Expand Chuck is that you or did Ji hack your account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:40 PM, schinz said: NAM says Sunday's event clearly trending colder Expand I think the Sunday event has been canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 So essentially the storm will almost certainly track west, it's just a matter of how strong the wedge of cold air is to determine how long the front end snow/ice will last? It would be nice to get one clean snowstorm track but this clearly is not the winter for that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Even sees “some” snow after the storm too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:40 PM, schinz said: NAM says Sunday's event clearly trending colder Expand Next event is trending better. (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:43 PM, Steve25 said: So essentially the storm will almost certainly track west, it's just a matter of how strong the wedge of cold air is to determine how long the front end snow/ice will last? It would be nice to get one clean snowstorm track but this clearly is not the winter for that lol. Expand Possibly, but I don't think the idea that this thing ends up a little farther south and east and transfers to the coast is off the table at all yet. Still pretty early in the game considering all the changes that keep taking place from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:49 PM, osfan24 said: Possibly, but I don't think the idea that this thing ends up a little farther south and east and transfers to the coast is off the table at all yet. Still pretty early in the game considering all the changes that keep taking place from run to run. Expand Well that would be fantastic, but I haven't seen a whole lot of that on the modeling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I guess DT didn't see 12Z suite for the 19/20 event. He just posted and his downplaying it. Little snow then changing "fairly quickly" to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 8:58 PM, RVASnowLover said: I guess DT didn't see 12Z suite for the 19/20 event. He just posted and his downplaying it. Little snow then changing "fairly quickly" to rain Expand i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted. could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:08 PM, 87storms said: i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted. could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone. Expand He usually barks about our area too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just caught up while sipping beer one (Denizen’s Bohemian Pils-awesome). I see two buck Chuck is the new Bob Chill. Simply amazing. How’s our European soil temps Chuck!? So we might actually have a real storm that’s not a weekend? Well that’s different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:08 PM, 87storms said: i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted. could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone. Expand He was talking about everywhere, including the DMV area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:08 PM, 87storms said: i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted. could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone. Expand Nope. He is talking about our area too. It’s kind of weird. With the Euro as depicted this afternoon, I would think he would be woofing. I guess he’s assuming it will turn to rain. Maybe it’s that he has canceled winter again. So maybe that’s good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 In all honesty I can't really blame DT for being hesitant. It's still a horrible track of the low. EPS was really nice with the cold air out ahead and holding strong but if that eases up at all it's easily a quick snow to rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 My favorite part of this synoptic setup is the placement of the block to the north right in the 50/50 locale. It’s actually created by two strong areas of low pressure that fujiwara, maintaining one prolific block up top. Notice the high over the NE US gets displaced to north and weakens some, but can’t really eject out of here. This keeps the surface return flow in a favorable position for the entirety of the event during the Euro’s lifecycle. Here’s what I’m talking about. Take a look in the North Atlantic. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Icon another big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:29 PM, LP08 said: Icon another big hit Expand Hope we can hold it together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:20 PM, RVASnowLover said: He was talking about everywhere, including the DMV area. Expand Who cares. He cancelled winter for THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST right before a big chunk from northern MD north was getting a significant snow/ice storm. Then he uncancelled and barked about a storm for DC that is hitting southern VA. And now he is debbing next week? Whatever. I actually like him. Fellow eagles combative arse. But he gets emotional and then goes full tilt and his forecasting gets affected. Right now he is all over the place and needs a vacation or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:34 PM, psuhoffman said: Who cares. He cancelled winter for THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST right before a big chunk from northern MD north was getting a significant snow/ice storm. Then he uncancelled and barked about a storm for DC that is hitting southern VA. And now he is debbing next week? Whatever. I actually like him. Fellow eagles combative arse. But he gets emotional and then goes full tilt and his forecasting gets affected. Right now he is all over the place and needs a vacation or something. Expand Watch out, he may private message you lil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 9:20 PM, snowmagnet said: Nope. He is talking about our area too. It’s kind of weird. With the Euro as depicted this afternoon, I would think he would be woofing. I guess he’s assuming it will turn to rain. Maybe it’s that he has canceled winter again. So maybe that’s good for us. Expand i mean, verbatim the risk of a changeover is still there, but i think the trend is what needs to be watched at this point. the next couple runs are key to see if the colder trend is real because we do well with accumulating snow from gulf interaction. that's the thumper route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 ICON destroy us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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