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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it was only off by 8.5 inches for my yard the last storm. Not much ground truth difference between a half inch and 9" though.

The UK has had a south/east bias all winter.  Tomorrow’s event in VA is really the first one it’s nailed from 72 hours out or more all winter

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The models were over pumping the SE ridge with it going back a good week from when it first started showing up.   This may be a product of the models realizing we aren’t entrenched strongly in phase 6 or 7 of the MJO anymore.  The guidance has reacted late to the SE ridge behavior all winter in regards to the MJO.  A big reason the mid January event trended warm so late is the MJO headed back into 5 wasn’t being given enough credit by the models on how it would pump heights until we got to about 84 hours out 

That's what i've been wondering as the WAR wouldnt go away,but now that were into P8, the models are catching on and adjusting accordingly.  Sure hope so.

 

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Just now, yoda said:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

Don't get me wrong...that isn't bad at all... but if you get that surface low just a little further east into TN it would increase the WAA forcing into our area even more and maybe get a better thump...but it would also probably encourage the low to jump to the coast from there...if its coming up that far west its going to continue to want to press north west of the mountains into the weakness there.  I am NOT debbing this look...its a good look for some front end action, just saying if we wanted this to be even bigger getting that primary into eastern TN instead of western would be one way to do it.  

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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:
There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play.  

Wasn't winter over yesterday lol

I thought it was over in December.  didn't you cancel it?  I guess you can uncancel it...DT did.

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