CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Here is the great snowmap for the 12z UKIE... ofc take with a grain of salt lol Yeah it was only off by 8.5 inches for my yard the last storm. Not much ground truth difference between a half inch and 9" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 We’re due for a midweek blizzard. Just sayin’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, schinz said: UKIE snow map does not look that much different than the Icon, GFS and Euro. It really doesn't. The op runs are all pretty similar with features and advertised frozen at this juncture. Which way will this trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Anybody have a 12z FV3 snow map? TT doesn't have the 12z run and the usual site that we use (the MAG site) doesn't have accumulation snow totals... I don't see one on weathermodels or truewx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Anybody have a 12z FV3 snow map? TT doesn't have the 12z run and the usual site that we use (the MAG site) doesn't have accumulation snow totals... I don't see one on weathermodels or truewx... All I found was this in their labs section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it was only off by 8.5 inches for my yard the last storm. Not much ground truth difference between a half inch and 9" though. The UK has had a south/east bias all winter. Tomorrow’s event in VA is really the first one it’s nailed from 72 hours out or more all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: All I found was this in their labs section. Pivotal weather is getting the feed faster. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2019021512&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The models were over pumping the SE ridge with it going back a good week from when it first started showing up. This may be a product of the models realizing we aren’t entrenched strongly in phase 6 or 7 of the MJO anymore. The guidance has reacted late to the SE ridge behavior all winter in regards to the MJO. A big reason the mid January event trended warm so late is the MJO headed back into 5 wasn’t being given enough credit by the models on how it would pump heights until we got to about 84 hours out That's what i've been wondering as the WAR wouldnt go away,but now that were into P8, the models are catching on and adjusting accordingly. Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Seems like the 1st weekend in March is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 It looks like the majority of GFS ensembles support a thump of snow but vary pretty greatly on what extent, there’s a few that are definitely 6+ so I guess there’s hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 FV3 has a HECS for places nw of 95 day 15-16 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 One would think this looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Much better cold press through 96. Stronger sunday/Monday storm helps with that. Edit: Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 One would think this looks goodYes it look good for Seattle Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Hmmmm... 120 has a 1034 HP in N NY/Quebec and 1006mb SLP in W TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 FV3 has a HECS for places nw of 95 day 15-16 lolMan I love that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FV3 has a HECS for places nw of 95 day 15-16 lol Man I love that model early March is a target window though... but way too far out to worry about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 Wow what a cad on euro 12zwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Hmmmm... 120 has a 1034 HP in N NY/Quebec and 1006mb SLP in W TN I would rather that be in eastern TN but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 0c 850 line at 120 is down in RIC on 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I would rather that be in eastern TN but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FV3 has a HECS for places nw of 95 day 15-16 lol Man I love that model There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmmm... 120 has a 1034 HP in N NY/Quebec and 1006mb SLP in W TN It's good. Euro starts as snow. Looks like a good front end thump when some good CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play. Wasn't winter over yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 Here is yesterday run for wed 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Thump to ice. 12z suite was basically the same for wed next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Don't get me wrong...that isn't bad at all... but if you get that surface low just a little further east into TN it would increase the WAA forcing into our area even more and maybe get a better thump...but it would also probably encourage the low to jump to the coast from there...if its coming up that far west its going to continue to want to press north west of the mountains into the weakness there. I am NOT debbing this look...its a good look for some front end action, just saying if we wanted this to be even bigger getting that primary into eastern TN instead of western would be one way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play. Wasn't winter over yesterday lol I thought it was over in December. didn't you cancel it? I guess you can uncancel it...DT did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Ian is calling it a "clobbering" on his twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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