CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: For a front end thump? That about as good as it gets around here... My front end "thumps" here are usually an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Canadian looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: For a front end thump? That about as good as it gets around here... agree. backend action never works out...we usually get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute. It's not like we've been getting 1 foot storms every week. A man in a desert thinks a 4 oz cup of water is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Canadian looks ok yep, more rain than I would prefer after the switch but atlest were seeing a bit of consistency on this suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 LOL at people complaining about a 4-6" storm. 1 foot snowstorms are not normal in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute. The system is weak. That is key. So you don’t flood the mid levels. Also it approaches almost from the south. The key for DCA up through my area is you want any type of overrunning storm or southwest flown event to have a weak upper air or surface reflection and approach from as southerly a latitude as possible. If you are too amped or approach from too high a latitude you generally get too warm in the mid levels and eventually the surface too. These sort of events were common back in the 70s/80s/early 90s but since then the tendency has been for most overrunning events to be too strong and they’ve been New England specials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute. Well you were the guy who got upset when the GEFS lost 3’ members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Well you were the guy who got upset when the GEFS lost 3’ members LOL this is true. Shocker, they lost all the snow, or fake snow in a lot of cases, they were showing. Totally useless tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute. I couldn’t remember why I put you on ignore until I unhid this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not like we've been getting 1 foot storms every week. A man in a desert thinks a 4 oz cup of water is a big deal. God: I see you are dying of thirst, my son osfan24. Here, sip this water of life from my chalice that you may be revived! osfan24: But the water has a speck of dirt in it! And only 4 oz left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Canadian looks ok much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday I believe so yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Definitely seems to be a trend towards a somewhar less pronounced se ridge the last few runs of both last night's EURO and the 12z GFS. Let's see if we can get that to continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday Yes. It consistently sucked with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday The models were over pumping the SE ridge with it going back a good week from when it first started showing up. This may be a product of the models realizing we aren’t entrenched strongly in phase 6 or 7 of the MJO anymore. The guidance has reacted late to the SE ridge behavior all winter in regards to the MJO. A big reason the mid January event trended warm so late is the MJO headed back into 5 wasn’t being given enough credit by the models on how it would pump heights until we got to about 84 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Wow! If we had the neg NAO and 50/50 (guess they are the same) this week would have been great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: I couldn’t remember why I put you on ignore until I unhid this post. I'll file this in the nobody cares category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same. That's why I was kinda half serious when I said it wasn't in it's prime. When the Euro had something 4 days, we all would be excited because you just knew that thing was a lock. Now, I don't trust it at all. Probably crazy talk, but I'm tired of getting burned this winter. The euro seemed to become a little more jumpy with storm track details after they started upgrading its resolution significantly several years ago. It's overall scores have improved, and it no doubt made the model better in many ways...but it seems to be a little less consistent. I also think some of this is expectations... I can remember back in the 90's and 2000's we really didn't take anything day 3-5 that seriously. Remember the high resolution guidance didn't even run past 48 hours back then, and stuff out at day 4-5 was considered a pipe dream kind of like we look at day 10 stuff now. But lately, because guidance has improved some, and we have seen a lot of storms stick and hold from day 7...we start looking at details and exact storm tracks of systems 4-5 days away. But the fact that such a weak and overall insignificant system changed a little bit from that range shouldn't be shocking. I think while guidance has improved a lot, our expectations in the medium to long range went up more than they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ji said: much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday The GGEM has been over amped all winter with EVERY storm. Remember when it was crushing us with the December storm? Just 48 hours ago it was taking the storm tomorrow up into central PA and missing me to the NORTH with heavy snow lol. I wouldn't even waste my time with it right now, its just adding noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 We might get the oppurtunity to track at the end of the month and early March after this coming up period. . Wonder if what webber weather mentioned about the NAO manifests itself in 10 days, but regardless, HM states some things going in our favor in the Pac. So, maybe we might score in early to mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Something to chew on, we were lacking this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 12Z Ukie looks fairly similar to the rest of the 12z suite. Drives a primary west of the region then develops a secondary of the NC coast. No idea on temps but the overall progression looked the same. You can see on the map a weak primary with a secondary forming off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: 12Z Ukie looks fairly similar to the rest of the 12z suite. Drives a primary west of the region then develops a secondary of the NC coast. No idea on temps but the overall progression looked the same. You can see on the map a weak primary with a secondary forming off the coast. Man if we had a strong banana high of about 1050 and stop the primary in TN. If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12Z Ukie looks fairly similar to the rest of the 12z suite. Drives a primary west of the region then develops a secondary of the NC coast. No idea on temps but the overall progression looked the same. You can see on the map a weak primary with a secondary forming off the coast. 12z UKMET is snow through probably 123 or so for DCA. At 126, 0c 850 line is just north of DCA but just south of BWI/HGR and C MD to the M/D line. Temps are in the upper 20s for most through 123... then rise to 30 at 126... and around 32 give or take a degree at 129/132 and sit there for the rest of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Here is the great snowmap for the 12z UKIE... ofc take with a grain of salt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 UKIE snow map does not look that much different than the Icon, GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, frd said: Something to chew on, we were lacking this feature. The failure to get the Aleutian low this year was by far the biggest problem is getting the consistent cold/snowy look we expected. We have had snowy nino's with or without the NAO but that trough SW of Alaska is the one universal feature in almost all those good years! We had almost the complete opposite with the EPO ridge too far west, really a north pac ridge more than an EPO ridge at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 What a storm though.. wouldn't it be something if we can stay below freezing the entire time. I keep thinking this SE ridge signal is there, and it's going to hit us, maybe it will hit us in duality in early March for a super cold precip time now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What a storm though.. wouldn't it be something if we can stay below freezing the entire time. I keep thinking this SE ridge signal is there, and it's going to hit us, maybe it will hit us in duality in March for a super cold precip time medium range? Sun is hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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