aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Personally I don't want the pattern to change...I want to luck my way right to 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Weeklies look very nice from mid February through mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: Weeklies look very good. March is winter-like. After the warm-up next week, goes right into extended winter. Looks active too ! They are either finally going to pay of in the most epic delayed but not denied ever...or they are going down with the ship in the biggest tease/bust in history. Bob knows when we will find out for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 This new thread structure sucks. I posted about the threat around the 10th in the threat thread but it's covered here. I'll post the weeklies in the threat thread in a few mins too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: This new thread structure sucks. I posted about the threat around the 10th in the threat thread but it's covered here. I'll post the weeklies in the threat thread in a few mins too. Think I’m ready to switch back too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are either finally going to pay of in the most epic delayed but not denied ever...or they are going down with the ship in the biggest tease/bust in history. Bob knows when we will find out for sure. They will bust like March 2001 , aka Pamela Anderson ..... ha ha Or, then again maybe not. Its a lottery, buy a ticket and enjoy the show ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Ok, this is back to pattern and storm tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This new thread structure sucks. I posted about the threat around the 10th in the threat thread but it's covered here. I'll post the weeklies in the threat thread in a few mins too. Its easy to lose track of what thread you are posting in sometimes, without scanning above , I forget sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ok, this is back to pattern and storm tracking Where do I post long range banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, frd said: Weeklies look very good. March is winter-like. After the warm-up next week, goes right into extended winter. Looks active too ! That would be great if true but if the weeklies were right, it would already be deep winter, and so would next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are either finally going to pay of in the most epic delayed but not denied ever...or they are going down with the ship in the biggest tease/bust in history. Bob knows when we will find out for sure. Hmmm, looking at the weeklies and the HL, wonder whether we have seem our lowest temps for the winter ? Sure looks like early March is nasty temp-wise. Just need snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ji said: 30 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Shut up Chuck The non lands are warming The pattern under the pattern is pna Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Think I’m ready to switch back too Having 2 threads is really not that difficult. Discrete threats inside of day 10 are discussed in the other thread. LR Pattern "chasing" goes here. That would include the weeklies. Idk, having everything in one thread was a bit of a cluster fuuck IMO. But I am easy. I go with the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Welp, it's pretty damn easy to track the most important feature on the weeklies week 3. We've had a bunch of ridging around greenland recently and all models show more in the future. However, if you look at the numerical nao it's not negative because of ridging and hp in the atlantic (WAR). A true neg nao will have low pressure in the atlantic stretching under the greenland ridging towards the azores. I present a textbook numerical -nao and the thing to track on the ens is lower heights and low pressure in the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Where do I post long range banter? Is there a thread where we can go to find directions to the proper thread to be posting in? This may belong in banter but i couldnt find it among the 20 other threads. Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern under the pattern is pna Nina But what if the earth spins faster at times and then slower at other times man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet but the fv3 never gets the front through and sends 3 separate waves of rain from Thursday-Saturday next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This new thread structure sucks. I posted about the threat around the 10th in the threat thread but it's covered here. I'll post the weeklies in the threat thread in a few mins too. 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Think I’m ready to switch back too Im not criticizing those that wanted it this way. I get why. And I can roll with whatever. But this seems more confusing. There is so much crossover between pattern and threat. There can be multiple mini discussions within the discussion. But once a specific threat gets to the point it’s sucking all the air out of the room we just need to start it’s own thread. In the past we waited too long because of the silly “it will kill it” thing. Threads don’t kill snow threats our climo does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Welp, it's pretty damn easy to track the most important feature on the weeklies week 3. We've had a bunch of ridging around greenland recently and all models show more in the future. However, if you look at the numerical nao it's not negative because of ridging and hp in the atlantic (WAR). A true neg nao will have low pressure in the atlantic stretching under the greenland ridging towards the azores. I present a textbook numerical -nao and the thing to track on the ens is lower heights and low pressure in the atlantic Weeklies have been pretty consistent in showing this textbook -NAO look. It has been pushed back some.. 5-6 runs ago it looked almost exactly like this for Feb 14. But yeah, we need to see this look show up on the ensembles and then hold at D10. then 7, then... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But what if the earth spins faster at times and then slower at other times man? Qbo nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Welp, it's pretty damn easy to track the most important feature on the weeklies week 3. We've had a bunch of ridging around greenland recently and all models show more in the future. However, if you look at the numerical nao it's not negative because of ridging and hp in the atlantic (WAR). A true neg nao will have low pressure in the atlantic stretching under the greenland ridging towards the azores. I present a textbook numerical -nao and the thing to track on the ens is lower heights and low pressure in the atlantic At least it starts the epic ness immediately after day 15 this time. I suppose that’s better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Weeklies have been pretty consistent in showing this textbook -NAO look. It has been pushed back some.. 5-6 runs ago it looked almost exactly like this for Feb 14. But yeah, we need to see this look show up on the ensembles and then hold at D10. then 7, then... etc. The trough axis in the west half of the conus is a new development but agree on the atl side. Feels like we've been looking at pretty panels for months and it verifies with inverted pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet but the fv3 never gets the front through and sends 3 separate waves of rain from Thursday-Saturday next week... None of those was the threat. That’s after those waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet but the fv3 never gets the front through and sends 3 separate waves of rain from Thursday-Saturday next week... 4th wave might produce. At least it's active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: None of those was the threat. That’s after those waves. I know...but the gfs did have a wave riding the front at 12z that got some air time on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: None of those was the threat. That’s after those waves. Weeklies control would be acceptable if the fv3 verifies. On a serious note... have you looked at the 7 day mean qpf anom for week 3? That + the h5 panel = epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Think I’m ready to switch back too yes....the Pattern thread we dont even need it anymore. We are done pattern chasing. Now its about storm threats as winter winds down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The trough axis in the west half of the conus is a new development but agree on the atl side. Feels like we've been looking at pretty panels for months and it verifies with inverted pretty colors. I kind of like the idea of a -pna -NAO 50/50 look. Get some west to east juiced up huge coverage systems trying to cut into cold with a blocked in 50/50 with confluence to our north. That sounds like a recipe that can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: On a serious note... have you looked at the 7 day mean qpf anom for week 3? That + the h5 panel = epic Bob, have ever seen that type of anomaly before? My friend told me about it, he is a weather weenie. To him it was a first at that range. Not sure if he was simply messing with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies control would be acceptable if the fv3 verifies. On a serious note... have you looked at the 7 day mean qpf anom for week 3? That + the h5 panel = epic See my post about the pna. That’s kinda what I had in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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