CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 When it comes to winter weather(or any weather other than heat), this region can fuk up a steel ball with a rubber mallet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: As long as you're still in your 20s you might make it. Our children’s children have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I will. I’m out. It’s not worth it. I’ve been planning on Colorado or Northern New England for a while. I think it’s time. Why have to wait? Go somewhere where a disaster is only getting 75”! I’ll still pop in now and then to say how great the weeklies look though!I could move to southern Vermont tomorrow, but we stay here in southern PA for now. But I dream about getting casual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Our children’s children have a chance. Especially with increasing lifespans. That generation can expect to live to 90. Puts them solidly into the 22rd century. Feeling good for them, actually. I dont think iad/dca/bwi has ever suffered 110 below normal years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Especially with increasing lifespans. That generation can expect to live to 90. Puts them solidly into the 22rd century. Feeling good for them, actually. I dont think iad/dca/bwi has ever suffered 110 below normal years in a row. We’re due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: There is no snow drought. Eastern areas were above climo the last 2 years, and southern areas are above this year. The snow drought is local. Bad luck. Weather is not looking to even anything up. We'll likely suffer through several Nina's before we see another nino, especially a modoki. Check our nina climo snow. That's not necessarily true either...Just look at this decade. We basically went mod nino, nina, nina, neutral, neutral, super nino, nina, nina, weak modoki. And a two-year enso event is not off of the table either! We are due for a mod Nino, imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 So are we in for our first torch March since 2012? I guess we’re due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is one case where the weeklies are probably useful, and likely deadly accurate. The cfs flipped today. The last 3 runs are just like that weeklies look. SE ridge never goes away kidding aside I really think there is more to the se ridge than the pac. I think it’s a cause more than an effect in this pattern. Even once the pacific gets right and pushes the trough out it’s just forced up and over the ridge. The se ridge isn’t being caused by the western trough. That’s making it worse yea but I startee suspecting and now I’m convinced there is another factor here that I’m missing that’s causing that feature to persist regardless of the look out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: when the NAO again failed How many -NAO fails does that make this year? Four, five? Man I am going to try very hard to never give two craps about any -NAO being modeled more than a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's not necessarily true either...Just look at this decade. We basically went mod nino, nina, nina, neutral, neutral, super nino, nina, nina, weak modoki. And a two-year enso event is not off of the table either! We are due for a mod Nino, imo! Did we ever actually make it to official El Nino status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1966 and 1973 fit as analogs in that the were El Nino's with more -PNA February. March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 What is the kid in your Avi doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Did we ever actually make it to official El Nino status? Yes we did (just saw NOAA tweet about it yesterday). Ya wouldn't think so, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 1966 and 1973 fit as analogs in that the were El Nino's with more -PNA February. March: Lol that is an awful match. Pna is the only similarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes we did (just saw NOAA tweet about it yesterday). Ya wouldn't think so, right? Lol Surprising, I guess because of current convection over the Tropics. (Subsurface is Weak El Nino.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cfs flipped today. The last 3 runs are just like that weeklies look. SE ridge never goes away kidding aside I really think there is more to the se ridge than the pac. I think it’s a cause more than an effect in this pattern. Even once the pacific gets right and pushes the trough out it’s just forced up and over the ridge. The se ridge isn’t being caused by the western trough. That’s making it worse yea but I startee suspecting and now I’m convinced there is another factor here that I’m missing that’s causing that feature to persist regardless of the look out west. I think it’s a combo of the Pacific and North Atlantic. The PAC jet has been directed up towards the pole all winter. It has allowed the PAC jet to transport right along into the CONUS. Not good. At the same time, the Atlantic wave break(50/50low) has been pushed along by the incoming PAC jet. Thus, no blocking in this region. So storms have mostly gone to cut. I believe the PAC is driving this overall winter pattern. Why, I don’t know. Here is a representation of the problem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I find BobChill's silence ominous. I fear he may be working an epic melt rant that will make the paint melt off of my walls just from reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I find BobChill's silence ominous. I fear he may be working an epic melt rant that will make the paint melt off of my walls just from reading it. hopefully he is hugging the heck out of the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 43 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I find BobChill's silence ominous. I fear he may be working an epic melt rant that will make the paint melt off of my walls just from reading it. I hear ya........ will be EPIC .... ! ! Yeah like Machine Gun Kelly to MM , Bob going be ominous and on point , look MF er Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The cfs flipped today. The last 3 runs are just like that weeklies look. SE ridge never goes away Hey psu have you lost faith in weather modeling in general, I have . The models are like decaying cow guts. Rotten and smelly with a stench of failure and a hint of , SUCKERS #$%#&*&(&^!!! I dont want to hear in December about the WEAKLIES I believe it when I can make a snowball ........ Maybe it is climate change ..... No I didn't. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, frd said: Hey psu have you lost faith in weather modeling in general, I have . The models are like decaying cow guts. Rotten and smelly with a stench of failure and a hint of , SUCKERS #$%#&*&(&^!!! I dont want to hear in December about the WEAKLIES I believe it when I can make a snowball ........ Maybe it is climate change ..... No I didn't. LOL Yeah I’m not falling for the weeklies again next year. (Remind me that next year when I sign onto a Week 4 -NAO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah I’m not falling for the weeklies again next year. (Remind me that next year when I sign onto a Week 4 -NAO) I just put on Post it up on my wall with your name on it , I will remind in December . ha ha That goes for every damn stink'in model, too ! Ukmet, CFS, JAMSTEC, you name it. F minus to all ! I have to calm down, back to listening to Machine Gun Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: I just put on Post it up on my wall with your name on it , I will remind in December . ha ha That goes for every damn stink'in model, too ! Ukmet, CFS, JAMSTEC, you name it. F minus to all ! I have to calm down, back to listening to Machine Gun Kelly When life gets tough, just look to the FV3 which will give us feet upon feet of digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 This winter really was fine. There have been way, way worse winters. Plus, we still have March and that seems to be deep winter around these parts for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 31 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This winter really was fine. There have been way, way worse winters. Plus, we still have March and that seems to be deep winter around these parts for some reason. Yeah, in reality my total so far is almost double my last two years combined so its certainly not as big a disaster as some years. I think its the hype going into this winter + the consistently advertised epic looks on weeklies/seasonal and even ensembles (at times) which has led to the disappointment in general. While we can certainly see more snow and can ‘luck’ into a storm, I’m over tracking anything in the LR. It seems pointless this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I said this in the weekend storm thread, but think it is just as appropriate here. The south move (don't want to use the word "trend" ) does nothing for my area. Will still be rain. I would rather this be north and give you guys snow, and me much less rain! I hate rain and I am so tired of wiping my pooches feet and cleaning floors!! I would be even happy with brutal cold and dry right now. At least my mud would be "FROZEN"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 AO verification still trending above the forecast. This is the last El Nino March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 This is one heck of a Pacific for an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Hrm...Euro looking a bit colder at 144? Wonder if we can back our way back into a thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hrm...Euro looking a bit colder at 144? Wonder if we can back our way back into a thump? It's a big hit for DC/NOVA/MD verbatim. Ice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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