psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps? The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps? The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge! It’s probably the insanely warm SSTs in the western Atlantic....no idea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ji said: how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high It’s going to snow in VA Saturday. Next week it will snow somewhere in the northeast. Might be way north of us but he cancelled for the northeast and New England too remember! He was exaggerating and going to bust anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps? The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge! It's only 10 days away, what could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps? The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge! Just taking the simplistic approach, I'm gonna guess that panel represents a transition from the western ridge being too far west/positive tilted, with a deep W coast US trough, to a more amplified/easterly and neutrally oriented EPO ridge, with the trough axis further east and the SE ridge flattened. Too lazy to post it but look at D10 prior to that panel, and then D15, where the long-wave pattern is (apparently) headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just taking the simplistic approach, I'm gonna guess that panel represents a transition from the western ridge being too far west/positive tilted, with a deep W coast US trough, to a more amplified/easterly and neutrally oriented EPO ridge, with the trough axis further east and the SE ridge flattened. Too lazy to post it but look at D10 prior to that panel, and then D15, where the long-wave pattern is (apparently) headed. Id like to see that se ridge gone though. It gets harder to win a boundary war in March. 18z gefs looks like total crap day 8 on imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Id like to see that se ridge gone though. It gets harder to win a boundary war in March. 18z gefs looks like total crap day 8 on imo. Agreed. What worries me at the end of the EPS run, even though the SE ridge is shunted out, is the lack of red up top. Project that out a few more days and it might not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agreed. What worries me at the end of the EPS run, even though the SE ridge is shunted out, is the lack of red up top. Project that out a few more days and it might not be pretty, You don’t have to project. Last nights eps was very similar and the new weeklies show exactly what it ends up as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: You don’t have to project. Last nights eps was very similar and the new weeklies show exactly what it ends up as Forgot about the weeklies lol. Well, there it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 This is one case where the weeklies are probably useful, and likely deadly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: This is one case where the weeklies are probably useful, and likely deadly accurate. You can totally bank on the weeklies proving useful for once with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Good...early spring fishing sounds good to me. I'll be watching and rooting for winter but I'm losing interest quick this year for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: You can totally bank on the weeklies proving useful for once with that look. Never know, but The EPS has been pretty weak with the ridging over GL, and today pretty must lost it. AO has looked ambiguous too. Both had signs. Instead of seeing a deep trough progressing eastward in the LR on recent runs, we have been seeing it further north, on the verge of receding into Canada. Not a good "trend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 So in other words...we need to hope for a hail mary for next week--or else many of us may have seen our last accumulating snowfall for the season (or could be seeing the last of it on Saturday). Mercy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So in other words...we need to hope for a hail mary for next week--or else many of us may have seen our last accumulating snowfall (or could be seeing the last of it on Saturday). Mercy... Hope is all we got...until the next model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Forgot about the weeklies lol. Well, there it is! It’s funny I had totally forgot about them until you said what you did about the eps and then I went and looked. It was exactly what we expected. I kind of started having that not good feeling when the NAO again failed and the trough starting to trend towards lifting instead of progressing east. That goes nowhere good. Last night when I saw the eps lifting the trough over the se ridge I thought the weeklies are gonna be ugly. They didn’t disappoint. Flat out horrid awful run. Couldn’t be any worse. The se ridge holds straight to spring. Watch this will be the first time all winter they are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So in other words...we need to hope for a hail mary for next week--or else many of us may have seen our last accumulating snowfall (or could be seeing the last of it on Saturday). Mercy... It’s over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So in other words...we need to hope for a hail mary for next week--or else many of us may have seen our last accumulating snowfall (or could be seeing the last of it on Saturday). Mercy... We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter! After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s probably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter! After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. Next winter looks like a weak Niño at best right now. It could even be neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter! After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. Troll mode, I see. I didn't mean last for a long time...just last for the season, dang it! I'm higher on next year, actually (I kinda started off the season that way--that one of the two winters would produce. On one end of a solar minimum or the other...we seem to have better winters overall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Weenie suicides in 3,2,1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter! After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. You are saying this in jest, but this scenario is very much on the table. Maybe with the exception of the super nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: You are saying this in jest, but this scenario is very much on the table. No it's not...2023? Heck no. Look at our history...not even the longest snow droughts lasted that long. The 1970s were the only time I could find, really. 2 other periods in the 50s and late 80s to early 90s had 4 years in a row...but the average was 2-3 consecutive years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter! After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. Jeez I'm not sure I will even be alive the next time there is a warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: Weenie suicides in 3,2,1.... It will snow again. We might not live to see it but it probably will snow again someday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: You are saying this in jest, but this scenario is very much on the table. That actually was probably the most accurate post that’s been made in this thread in a long time. I didn’t even realize it was a troll at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It will snow again. We might not live to see it but it probably will snow again someday! You're terrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No it's not...2023? Heck no. Look at our history...not even the longest snow droughts lasted that long. There is no snow drought. Eastern areas were above climo the last 2 years, and southern areas are above this year. The snow drought is local. Bad luck. Weather is not looking to even anything up. We'll likely suffer through several Nina's before we see another nino, especially a modoki. Check our nina climo snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Jeez I'm not sure I will even be alive the next time there is a warning level event. As long as you're still in your 20s you might make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Jeez I'm not sure I will even be alive the next time there is a warning level event. I will. I’m out. It’s not worth it. I’ve been planning on Colorado or Northern New England for a while. I think it’s time. Why have to wait? Go somewhere where a disaster is only getting 75”! I’ll still pop in now and then to say how great the weeklies look though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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