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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude that's the entire meteorological community this winter...lol Even the most brilliant! This winter tore pretty much everybody a new rear end!

We were all duped. There was no reason to think it would collapse. Euro seasonal never flinched. Looked great. The one red flag was the CFS v2.  It never agreed with the other long range model. JB was always concerned about that 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

And, your point is ? 

So no one should post the thoughts of respected pros and mets.  

I am frustrated too.  I only posted this because it keeps the thread engaged and it could happen.  

If you going to single out Tom you should  include everyone.     

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Just now, Ji said:

I feel bad for @Bobchill. He really thought this period would produce multiple events. And now he left the board for probably a week. He puts alot into the hobby

We all put a lot into this. If I never got into weather and sports I would be a lot more pleasant. Tough hobby. The losses hurt more than the wins are rewarding

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:
38 minutes ago, frd said:
in regards to the NAO 
From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  
This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.
 
r92vz8.png&key=860140de07f9e8770666cb3fc37d7f3f1f909d2c853581a4716e0d673f4aaacd

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

so was everyone else 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, frd said:
in regards to the NAO 
From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  
This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.
 
r92vz8.png&key=860140de07f9e8770666cb3fc37d7f3f1f909d2c853581a4716e0d673f4aaacd

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

 

 

It's an observation, not a forecast. I'm merely analyzing what could happen, and delineating possibilities. I said what needs to occur in order for the pattern to improve, not that I necessarily believed it would definitively occur. There are multiple ways this can evolve, one of which is a continuation of blocking-fail.

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z  . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine  more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . 

So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need.  

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z  . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine  more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . 

More like earlier this week you think?  

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13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need.  

EPS shows a pretty good CAD signature Tuesday night. image.thumb.png.05e43cfc0617e28021ad47ba7f397fd5.png

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need.  

FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless...

Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!!

so here is the thing.....the GFS is way slow with the precip. at 00z...there is nothing....6z till precip way far away while Euro has heavy precip(sleet it appears). On the flipside...it probably means that if the precip got here earlier....the high moves out quicker...so either way we are screwed lol...unless the SE ridge isnt as pronounced 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

The SE ridge causes the front to stall and dump 12" of rain over MS/TN. It's a monster on this run.

how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and  now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high

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Just now, Ji said:

how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and  now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high

I knew that would happen, in fact after that uncancel is whenthings started to unravel...of course it’s coincidental...or is it

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