MDstorm Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Dude that's the entire meteorological community this winter...lol Even the most brilliant! This winter tore pretty much everybody a new rear end! Everyone, except for KA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude that's the entire meteorological community this winter...lol Even the most brilliant! This winter tore pretty much everybody a new rear end! We were all duped. There was no reason to think it would collapse. Euro seasonal never flinched. Looked great. The one red flag was the CFS v2. It never agreed with the other long range model. JB was always concerned about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year And, your point is ? So no one should post the thoughts of respected pros and mets. I am frustrated too. I only posted this because it keeps the thread engaged and it could happen. If you going to single out Tom you should include everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 I feel bad for @Bobchill. He really thought this period would produce multiple events. And now he left the board for probably a week. He puts alot into the hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: I feel bad for @Bobchill. He really thought this period would produce multiple events. And now he left the board for probably a week. He puts alot into the hobby We all put a lot into this. If I never got into weather and sports I would be a lot more pleasant. Tough hobby. The losses hurt more than the wins are rewarding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, frd said: in regards to the NAO From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th. Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year so was everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Everyone calm down. We are getting more snow this winter. You all need a drink and a fat joint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 smoking is bad for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: smoking is bad for you Well at least drinking isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Everyone, except for KA. Who is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jandurin said: smoking is bad for you This kind is great for glaucoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Who is that? Scroll down the topics page here in the MA. You will see a title with his name KA. I believe his name is Keith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Scroll down the topics page here in the MA. You will see a title with his name KA. I believe his name is Keith. So now how did he do that, and what did he look at? Whatever it is...it's probably more reliable than all LR guidance, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, frd said: in regards to the NAO From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th. Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year It's an observation, not a forecast. I'm merely analyzing what could happen, and delineating possibilities. I said what needs to occur in order for the pattern to improve, not that I necessarily believed it would definitively occur. There are multiple ways this can evolve, one of which is a continuation of blocking-fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Everyone has been wrong this winter That me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . More like earlier this week you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need. EPS shows a pretty good CAD signature Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need. FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Round Hill WX said: FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. FWIW? It's worth nothing! Boo!! Salt in the wound, dude...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. it cools D11-D15 lol but its like early May by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: FWIW? It's worth nothing! Boo!! Salt in the wound, dude...lol Yeah it sucks. I love cold and snow but this winter the PAC irregularities won’t be denied. We’re kinda lucky to have gotten what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless... Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: it cools D11-D15 lol but its like early May by then Haha yup. Funny thing is, at some point we will get a legit -NAO. And it will probably be opening week of the MLB season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless... Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!! so here is the thing.....the GFS is way slow with the precip. at 00z...there is nothing....6z till precip way far away while Euro has heavy precip(sleet it appears). On the flipside...it probably means that if the precip got here earlier....the high moves out quicker...so either way we are screwed lol...unless the SE ridge isnt as pronounced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 with that said--the 18z is a monster improvement...looking more like the FV3. Hopefuly the Euro bias of too much trough in SW will play out in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 the virtual kidnapping of @Bob Chill has been sad today. We could use an optimistic/non realistic post today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The SE ridge causes the front to stall and dump 12" of rain over MS/TN. It's a monster on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Amped said: The SE ridge causes the front to stall and dump 12" of rain over MS/TN. It's a monster on this run. how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high I knew that would happen, in fact after that uncancel is whenthings started to unravel...of course it’s coincidental...or is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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