The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Fozz said:

I think the ICON overdoes cold surface temps. The overall track and progression of the storm doesn't look like hours and hours of 28 degree zr to me. But I'm just an amateur.

ICON actually did OK with surface temps the other day, I never made it above freezing the whole storm.  Wish I had.  Lost a huge pine tree and a ton of large branches.  I have some major cleaning up to do once the snow melts.  

[stormtracker]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's actually ZR signal past the initial snow. Temps in the 20's to near 30 when the rain hits 

I hate the precip algorithm on TT for the Icon. I also just hate the Icon

This

[psuhoffman]

CMC is 2 big ol cutter rainstorms.  Not even close.  

[luckyamaha]

CMC is 2 big ol cutter rainstorms.  Not even close.  

We roll with that. It's most likely of outcomes even if it's the cmc. Let's move on to next rain events

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[yoda]

12z UKIE at 144

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something not getting any attention but its hurting us is the trend towards a slower system.  That is a big deal when the cold is weak and retreating.  There are other problems, the failure of any of the systems this weekend to bomb and create suppressive flow behind it, the trend of the 50/50 to end up further northeast in how it is oriented, more ridging...but equally a problem is this is now a full day slower than it was 72 hours ago. 

So it was already a tough go before...but now that it's slower? Yikes...Are we already at the point of no return? Lol

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

CMC is 2 big ol cutter rainstorms.  Not even close.  

It was a precarious set up to begin with, and has only trended worse over the past couple days. This is probably the most likely outcome.

[psuhoffman]

Sorry to dump this during the 12z model suite but schedule is off today.

The SOI has gone solidly negative and the MJO is now into Phase 8 for 2 straight days.  So the progression didn't fail completely.  But there might be some hints why we are not getting the response we need.  

There was a mention the other day that to get the response to a specific mjo phase we actually need it to progress into the NEXT phase.  So we would get phase 8 if the wave is progressing into phase 1.  I looked into that and I found several other sources saying the same thing so this seems to have merit.  Apparently a stalled MJO tends to continue the expected pattern of the previous phase often.  The CMC and GEFS products stall the mjo is phase 8 and cycle it around there.  But that would make sense why we continue to be stuck in a phase 7 look for the next 2 weeks.  

Additionally look at the actual forcing charts for the GEFS.  It makes sense that it had a great look for around the 20th and degraded it over the last week...look what it was forecasting for the tropical forcing then vs now

That was a very strong phase 8/1 look, even if the chart didn't show it

But look at the latest run

This is ambiguous and kind of a non signal (its not a bad look...but not one that would bully the pattern either)

So it would make sense that the GEFS shifted away from a great look that would align with a strong mjo phase 8/1 and into an ambiguous pattern look late.

The EPS makes less sense.  It progresses the wave through phase 8 to 1 but it also continues to have a lag with a phase 7 look until very late in the run.

I know that is the non bias corrected but that IS what the euro is forecasting so the pattern should align to that.  That is a good looking mjo progression.  

Maybe this is error...maybe just maybe the eps is playing into its bias and the other guidance is just wrong with the mjo.  Maybe...

As for where the indexes go.  The SOI looks to remain negative the next week.  After that it becomes more ambiguous but not hostile.   At that point the damage should have been done with the negative burst though.  

I do think the GEFS and CMC are wrong with the mjo.  They have continued to adjust every day then go off the rails after a few days.  Right now the GEFS and EPS mjo are identical for the next 5 days....then the GEFS starts to diverge.  It has been doing that and wrong for a month.  It goes off on a tangent after only a few days and continually corrects one day further each day.  No reason to think it is correct now.  

BTW no shock the CFS is the best look in the long range given this mjo look. 

This would override any negative other influences imo so if the CFS scores the coup on the mjo maybe the other guidance adjusts...but that seems a tall order.  NOTHING else supports this level of amplitude with the mjo wave next week.  

The conclusion:  On the whole the pacific tropical forcing looks favorable.  Perhaps not perfect... the mjo wave becomes more ambiguous then I would like but in general the forcing is AROUND phases 8/1 and there is subsidence over the maritime continent and the soi remains negative.  Perhaps we see guidance finally response for a better period in March but I have just about given up for week 2 as the -PNA SE ridge look to dominate regardless of the pacific forcing.  

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

We roll with that. It's most likely of outcomes even if it's the cmc. Let's move on to next rain events

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Why would we "roll" with that?  If that is what is going to happen so be it, and we can't control it, but it sucks so why would we be like...yea lets roll with it?  

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE at 144

that looks like poo

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that looks like poo

the 6z FV3 was great for next week and was great for the rest of the 384 run lol

[poolz1]

@psuhoffman Great post on the MJO....I have heard the same thing in regards to the MJO stalling.  I'm at the point now where I am not expecting anything at all...just meaning my expectations are not expecting anything in particular. lol  This season has thrown me for a loop.  The postmortem will be interesting this spring....mainly from mets trying to spin the reasons for the outcome of this winter. 

[luckyamaha]

Why would we "roll" with that?  If that is what is going to happen so be it, and we can't control it, but it sucks so why would we be like...yea lets roll with it?  

Because this entire season has been Pacific Jet driven and it will most likely continue which will give way to more cutters and rain. All the cold is in the west and everything else points to early spring by March 1st

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[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

Because this entire season has been Pacific Jet driven and it will most likely continue which will give way to more cutters and rain. All the cold is in the west and everything else points to early spring by March 1st

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

The weather across the CONUS is always pacific jet driven...since we are downstream of the pacific, but what does that mean?  For the last month, there has actually been a decent wave break in the central Pacific that prevented a straight pacific firehose into the CONUS.  If that was the case the west would be warm too.  But there has been a persistent north pacific blocking high that has forced the northern jet to ridge into Alaska and dig into the western US.  If that is what you mean by pacific jet drive...ok I guess, but that can change at any time.  Earlier this year that wasn't our problem.  We have actually had various different problems at different times that prevented us from ever getting an ideal pattern.  In December it was a pacific firehose.  In January it was a WAR.  In February it has been a north pacific block (or extremely west based EPO ridge if you prefer).  There has always been one feature that is just flat wrong for our snow chances preventing a good pattern.  There have often been enough things in our favor to prevent a total shutout look (except for the pac firehose in Dec) but we can't get it right either.  

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@psuhoffman Great post on the MJO....I have heard the same thing in regards to the MJO stalling.  I'm at the point now where I am not expecting anything at all...just meaning my expectations are not expecting anything in particular. lol  This season has thrown me for a loop.  The postmortem will be interesting this spring....mainly from mets trying to spin the reasons for the outcome of this winter. 

We may never know completely, because it might be a case of several minor conflicting signals combining to create what happened.  We might not have the level of understanding at that complexity to fully understand all the causality that went on.   

There are a few apparent things that stick out to me

The MJO was a problem and didn't behave like a nino at all (but again what is the causality?)

The SSWE might have been more of a problem than a solution.  A sswe early in the season is correlated with enhanced MJO activity starting in warm phases.  Now the kicker is that activity isn't always hostile for the whole winter.  In years where the mjo progressed through cold phases it hurt early but then helped.  This year the wave died without a full rotation through cold phases twice.  This next wave seems to be giving it a try but is also having trouble fully manifesting through cold phases.  There is obviously something hostile to a cold phase mjo wave this year.  But if the SSWE enhances the mjo and the mjo is going to want to hang out in warm phases that is a big big problem.  In a typical nino the mjo is muted and not much of a factor.  That is why, IMO, we see typically warm mjo phases look colder in a nino, its not because that phase suddenly becomes good...its just in a nino its muted and LESS HOSTILE.  But this year the mjo went ape and took over and it did it in a hostile way.  The SSWE might have had an affect there.  

What is clear is we saw little help from the SWE.  It didn't fully propagate to the troposphere in a productive way for us.  I've seen lots of reasons for that but frankly I don't ever hang my hat on a swe event.  They are unpredictable and often do us no good.  If you just want some crazy cold event somewhere globally then yea rooting for them is great.  If you are interested in snowfall in a specific location they are an incredibly inefficient way to get there.   

The PDO was unhelpful.  I don't know how hostile it was...but we certainly never got the Aleutian Vortex typical of nino's.  The PDO didn't help us at all.  

I think there is more to the SE ridge right now than the pacific forcing.  I think that is being aided by another influence and is partially a cause not just an effect. 

Those are my thoughts as to what is going on.  the problem is I have no idea what the causality to any of that stuff is and correlation without causality isnt very useful for predicting going forward.   

[87storms]

next friday is pretty interesting on the 12z gfs.  that's a big storm look imo, though rain for now.

[frd]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The conclusion:  On the whole the pacific tropical forcing looks favorable.  Perhaps not perfect... the mjo wave becomes more ambiguous then I would like but in general the forcing is AROUND phases 8/1 and there is subsidence over the maritime continent and the soi remains negative.  Perhaps we see guidance finally response for a better period in March but I have just about given up for week 2 as the -PNA SE ridge look to dominate regardless of the pacific forcing.  

Four days ago when I posted on the reversal of the EPS snow mean, some said the reduced mean was still good, but presently it is matching up to what you are mentioning about week 2. Not looking good.  

The rest of Feb looks mediocre. A couple inches of snow in prime climo is pathetic.  Even the window in early March,  based on things presently , seems to be less stellar looking.  We can not get blocking , been the story of the winter. Add the effect of the MJO not being productive,  as you mention,  and what looked great a week ago has resorted back to the typcial of this winter.  

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Four days ago when I posted on the reversal of the EPS snow mean, some said the reduced mean was still good, but presently it is matching up to what you are mentioning about week 2. Not looking good.  

The rest of Feb looks mediocre. A couple inches of snow in prime climo is pathetic.  Even the window in early March,  based on things presently , seems to be less stellar looking.  We can not get blocking , been the story of the winter. Add the effect of the MJO not being productive,  as you mention,  and what looked great a week ago has resorted back to the typcial of this winter.  

 

Remember how I kept telling everyone I wanted to beat people with a stick when they mentioned 1985... there was a reason for that.  It kept showing up in pattern analogs a LOT.  It was the best match to the swe event.  And the only argument against it as a good pattern analog was it wasn't a nino but this nino was weak anyways.  Well guess what pattern kept showing up, and is still one of the top analogs to right now...1985.  And our sensible weather ended up close to 1985 also.  Quick cold shot.  Minor snow events then a moderation.  Some snow the rest of the way but nothing big.  It ended up a better year WRT climo in DC then my area since a "little bit" of snow gets them to climo but leaves me way under.  It was actually about a median year in DC while it was one of the worst snowfall years in the last 40 here.  This year has been very similar from January 1 on to 1985.  I hated seeing that year in the anlogs so often...and it has played out that way.  

[psuhoffman]

OK I am gonna dig DEEEEEEEP here to find something positive to throw out there.  Looking at the day 11 analogs there are a decent number of years showing up that rolled into a big snowstorm for at least some parts of our region a week later.

Dates in 1976, 1956, 1964, 1962, and 1966 all show up about a week before a big snow.

There are also several other years where our area got at least some accumulating snows a week later in  2001, 1967, 1996 and 1955.  There were actually more years that DID feature snow after those dates than years that did not.  It was all about a week later which is a bit past the usefulness of those, but the fact they all seemed to have a similar timeline suggests a lot of those years a similar pattern rolled forward into a better look for snow here a week later.  So there is hope......week 3.  LOL

[stormtracker]

Looks like we're about to lose the Euro to rain.  

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like we're about to lose the Euro to rain.  

Really? Looks better than yesterday based on feature placement. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Really? Looks better than yesterday based on feature placement. 

torch... location of features doesn't matter.  Euro goes ape with the ridge before it can get here and wrecks the thermal profile.   No cold anywhere near us.  

ETA:  its "close" if you want a little freezing rain to start...surface temps around 32 for a while...but even up here its not even close to any snow at all...starts as freezing rain all the way into PA...changes to rain all the way to upstate NY.  No significant snow anywhere really...just blasts the ridging all the way up...VERY warm run.  Looks kind of like the CMC with the thermal profile

[frd]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Remember how I kept telling everyone I wanted to beat people with a stick when they mentioned 1985... there was a reason for that.  It kept showing up in pattern analogs a LOT.  It was the best match to the swe event.  And the only argument against it as a good pattern analog was it wasn't a nino but this nino was weak anyways.  Well guess what pattern kept showing up, and is still one of the top analogs to right now...1985.  And our sensible weather ended up close to 1985 also.  Quick cold shot.  Minor snow events then a moderation.  Some snow the rest of the way but nothing big.  It ended up a better year WRT climo in DC then my area since a "little bit" of snow gets them to climo but leaves me way under.  It was actually about a median year in DC while it was one of the worst snowfall years in the last 40 here.  This year has been very similar from January 1 on to 1985.  I hated seeing that year in the anlogs so often...and it has played out that way. 

Yes, i do remember that psu.  1985 with the intense cold but otherwise a so so winter right.  Back in early Jan when you brought that up I researched and pulled up climo records for a station near by by, Wilmington , DE.  I looked and scanned across Jan and Feb and sure there was that deep cold interval, but like you stated nothing really great. 

We sure never got the looks of JB's analogs  09-10, 03, etc. 

No intense -NAO. no impressive +PNA, no BM snowstorm, just repetitive cutter, surpressed, and the huger, repeat, repeat.  

Oh so many tihngs to mention that ae to blame but you know what we learn form it and make sure next year we look at the PDO values, the Nino, MEI, SOI, trends, etc. the QBO direction, and hope there is no SSWE .  I hate them, the ROI in learning more about them was a disspointment so far. 

For the lenght of time the wind reversal lasted , nada.  

Looking the WAR and wondering the impacts we will have in the summer if the waters warm up quikly.

 

 

 

 

[frd]

in regards to the NAO 

From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  

This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.

 

[osfan24]

JB is currently hyping February of 1978 on Twitter.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

JB is currently hyping February of 1978 on Twitter.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

JB is currently hyping February of 1978 on Twitter.

How is that even possible , care to explain what he said 

[Ji]

in regards to the NAO 
From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  
This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.
 

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

16 minutes ago, frd said:

in regards to the NAO 
From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  
This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.
 

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

Everyone has been wrong this winter

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, frd said:

in regards to the NAO 
From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  
This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.
 

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

Dude that's the entire meteorological community this winter...lol Even the most brilliant! This winter tore pretty much everybody a new rear end!