Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 hours ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, Judah Cohen tweeted today that FV3 becomes the U.S Operational model on March 1. Ruh-roh...lol That model has no common sense! I mean, are they really gonna put it out there like it is now? How will it be anymore reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 hours ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, Judah Cohen tweeted today that FV3 becomes the U.S Operational model on March 1. If he did, he is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, high risk said: If he did, he is wrong. Wouldn't be the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, high risk said: If he did, he is wrong. I believe the date is March 20... you can correct me if I'm mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, high risk said: If he did, he is wrong. Isn't actually March 20th?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: I believe the date is March 20... you can correct me if I'm mistaken. Yes, that is the current target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Winter is coming. That looks believable to me... these days it really wants to snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 This has the potential of a major SE ridge setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Classic wavelength pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter There will probably be some snow/ mix for the N and W areas, but the general set up for the events this week isn't great, esp for the coastal plain. Too much SE ridge. I'll take my rain and wait for the epic period beginning March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter Every model looks terrible moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter Hmm. I feel like I’ve heard this before... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, S A Martinez said: How does Chuck have an account here? Long time lurker and that guy is a troll if I’ve ever seen one. I could say Me and my wife are expecting and he would say that late February is setting our unborn son up for failure due to his extrapolation of the h5 maps. Every single positive post is met with his negative. He doesn’t post otherwise. That is the definition of a troll. While I'm right there with you it unfortunately looks like he is on-point this time. Honestly even tho he has generally just posted negative one sentence posts about the pattern the entire season cant really say they havent verified about 80% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, S A Martinez said: Hoffman, Chill, and many others contribute to this thread in a great way. There is much to be learned from you guys. I’m sure many of us appreciate your guys’s efforts. I just wish that idiots opinion would be at least put in banter. Guys in this sub know way more than him and while I get it’s an open forum he offers nothing. He is the guy that misses the layup and blames the guy that passed him the ball Thanks for your positive contributions to the LR weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thanks for your positive contributions to the LR weather thread. He has made 2 posts. Both to trash Chuck. Not really off to a great start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I mean seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I mean seriously? Dc snow hole is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 A couple days ago, @Bob Chill was saying we may go 1 for 3 or 2 for 3 on the upcoming events. It looks like we might go 0 for 3 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Hoffman and Chill are amazing. Sadly all they have been tracking is a pattern that will never become reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: A couple days ago, @Bob Chill was saying we may go 1 for 3 or 2 for 3 on the upcoming events. It looks like we might go 0 for 3 now... He would still be in Deb mode if not for that 12"+ his yard lucked into. Sorry Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: He would still be in Deb mode if not for that 12"+ his yard lucked into. Sorry Bob. Amazing how poorly some climo sites North of him are doing. Might be the worse , ( IF things stay the same snowfall wise ie, not stellar ) for a Nino , even though here we know this as a Nino want to be . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Not quite as good a look as the GEFS, but the EPS is coming around with the pattern progression. March gonna save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not quite as good a look as the GEFS, but the EPS is coming around with the pattern progression. March gonna save us. You are right about the NAO . And I think it is related to a degree to the QBO. But was going say, never do you see it Build SW into the Davis Straights. whatever effect we had were from what HM< called blips and or wave breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Something to ponder and I guess @psuhoffman ponders this always looking for a lack of effect from the Nino. I know yesterday Isotherm brought severals ideas and reasons up as to why things are not working together. Nino / forcing . etc. The post below is an interestring one, as it looks upon the current - SOI. Courtesy 33andrain Posted 4 hours ago The highest AAM anomalies are actually on my side of the equator. And I think we can bring this down to what is happening with the current MJO wave caused strong WWB in the Pacific. Most of the recent WWB-associated activity has been occurring within the Southern Hemisphere. This explains the very negative SOI anomalies in the Pacific (because Darwin and Tahiti are both in the SH). The interesting thing is CFS notes this WWB continuing for a while, a whole month long. This would have continued impacts on extratropical weather down the pipeline. The activity heading out towards the Baja California, also indicates to me, the signs of a strengthening STJ, from the region up to the Eastern CONUS. It has been interesting not to see this activity, stir up major positive frictional torque activity, but perhaps it is the location, rather than the strength that prompts the +FT. I have some thoughts that are best for another time, but hopefully we see some big responses to quash negative AAM anomalies at 40N. The best way to do this starts with a +FT. Interesting times. - Zac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Don't kill the messengers...enjoy reading the expertise and experiencing the weather passion of this forum. Sometimes as has been stated before, a little luck is needed. But we should not put out an "It's OVER, GROVER WATCH" based on one set of overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter But 384 is rocking! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Should change thread title to the miserable month of February FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Well, if there is any consolation, the Atari-FV3 is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, if there is any consolation, the Atari-FV3 is a hit. Seems like it often over models northeastern confluence and wintry weather east of low pressure systems. Not sure it’s look makes sense given the players on the field. This is really what’s taking over for the GFS soon? We’re in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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