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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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32 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its Day 10 of the EURO... but since I am trying to learn:

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

With that h5 in W Canada... is that good or bad?  Also, looks like the Pacific isn't helping much as the PNA ridge is very small nosing into AK

Dont think we want the nao ridge linking up with the flat ridge GOM. Like others said get something to cut between them ie keep the nao and GOM flat ridge  (or whatever you want to call it) separate and that's a solid look.

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34 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I agree. It hasn't been the worst pattern of all time, but it's been pretty close. The "big storm" of the season so far hit a relatively small area, and an even smaller area got the more significant totals thanks to a few localized bands that formed. Other than that, it's been pretty much a shutout winter other than a few very, very light events that were basically coatings to an inch. There's been very little to track, and as ugly as it has been for us, those north of us have had it even worse. There's really a rather small area between Columbia or so and parts of Southwest VA that have had a decent to good winter so far thanks to each having a pretty good storm.

That event was a "fluke" kind of because it came during a very short window with a favorable look and something just came along at exactly the right time, took the perfect track, maxed potential, and even then half that snow was from some weird inverted trough type deal at the end.  But I don't begrudge anyone their snow...I am genuinely happy for them, but I don't expect to continue to get that lucky if a similar pattern persists.  I think Philly is having results more in line with the reality of this pattern.  

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37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its Day 10 of the EURO... but since I am trying to learn:

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

With that h5 in W Canada... is that good or bad?  Also, looks like the Pacific isn't helping much as the PNA ridge is very small nosing into AK

No trough in the east and no heights out west. How is that a good look??

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Euro is colder/deeper with the trough d10-13 but appears to be similar with last night having 2 camps with no middle ground. 

GEFS is the same but the 12z just had more members come over to the blocky/cold camp.  But the meager snowfall on some of those members is really "ice" from some crazy west track that NEVER actually happens and is always in that GEFS skewing the mean high.  (why the GEFS is always 2-3" higher than the EPS).   But yea...still 2 obvious camps with some NICE eastern trough blocky snow looking members and some huge eastern ridge members.  

Regarding the "ridge hooking up with the mid latitudes" thing... that is a product of the NAO ridge not being a true cut off block on some members which is what we need.  If the NAO is a true block it will force the trough in the west to cut under it.  If it's just a weak ridge the trough out west can pump the ridge ahead of it and link the two up into a full latitude ridge.  That wont happen if we get a true NAO block. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is colder/deeper with the trough d12-14 but appears to be similar with last night having 2 camps with no middle ground. 

Lots of west tracks, nice tracks, and suppression on the members.  Pretty easy to see if we get a true block than we have a good chance in the 10-12 day time.  Most members have at least some semblance of a storm in the south during that time.

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