psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 with the trend away from strong HP in front we probably need a weaker storm at this point. Something amplified probably creates too much southerly flow and we go to rain. Not even sure ice anymore given the trends in the thermal profile the last 24 hours. But there is still room for it to work out if we get tight spacing and weaker waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: with the trend away from strong HP in front we probably need a weaker storm at this point. Something amplified probably creates too much southerly flow and we go to rain. Not even sure ice anymore given the trends in the thermal profile the last 24 hours. But there is still room for it to work out if we get tight spacing and weaker waves. it will probably end up a further south version of what you just experienced earlier this week...which is fine..few inches of snow then ice or something like it... but that deep CAD signature and historic ice storm seems outlier now...but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 CMC is some ice to rain Wednesday...but its ok because it follows it up with another even bigger rainstorm Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...Gefs has been trending less amplified the last few runs so maybe a good thing . Haven't looked at Eps though It's also backing off on the northern stream low tracking across the lakes above it. This was creating weakness and helping allow midlevels to warm easily. The low is barely there on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And this is why the EPS looks like crap... if there are other negative influences, such as isotherm talks about...this might not be enough of a signal to overcome that. The forcing certainly is located in the right places but the wave is weak sauce...figure that after an amped up ape mjo through warm phases all winter it would become a wimp when it finally makes it into cold phases. lol If the EPS is the most reliable model for the MJO, then this is really bad news. Is it naive to hope for something closer to the CFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's also backing off on the northern stream low tracking across the lakes above it. This was creating weakness and helping allow midlevels to warm easily. The low is barely there on this run. That's a good development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...Gefs has been trending less amplified the last few runs so maybe a good thing . Haven't looked at Eps though Don't, it was depressing. Weaker wave but also pushed the thermal boundary way north so it was mostly just rain or ice without much snow anywhere, even north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's also backing off on the northern stream low tracking across the lakes above it. This was creating weakness and helping allow midlevels to warm easily. The low is barely there on this run. I kind of like the way the GFS is heading...its losing the "big storm" potential but evolving towards a way we can score a simple moderate snow. I am totally fine with that. But need to see euro go that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: If the EPS is the most reliable MJO forecaster, then this is really bad news. Is it naive to hope for something closer to the CFS look? yes, but its not out of the question to expect a compromise between the more amplified GFS/CFS camp and the euro. The CMC is kind of in the middle...even if the compromise is 70/30 towards the euro that would still be a good look...just get that wave out of the COD into decent amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I kind of like the way the GFS is heading...its losing the "big storm" potential but evolving towards a way we can score a simple moderate snow. I am totally fine with that. But need to see euro go that way. dude--i dont want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Ji said: dude--i dont want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking So don't track it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 someone put ji out of our misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 47 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS looks like a good hit incoming at 162. Its slower, but seems to be throwing more precip into the cold. Edit: Ehh. Don't forcast model runs. It ends up with less precip but looks to stay mostly snow. 90% of these posts end up in the model run being way worse than what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 There's a burger joint in Leesburg named after ji it's called Melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: dude--i dont want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So don't track it? Seeing as it could end up being our last shot (I no l trust long range "looks"), we may not have much of a choice! Yes, if it ends up being moderate, it may indeed be disappointing (particularly for those us 10 inches below average). But, what if that's our last shot?...Gotta track it all the way through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 So don't track it? No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So don't track it? No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb See ya next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--i dont want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking Dude, get a grip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So don't track it? No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb Its all we got man. We all want the giant bone in rib-eye but tuna helper is all that's on the menu. Grab a spoon and a breath mint for after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So don't track it? No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb You misread his post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Its all we got man. We all want the giant bone in rib-eye but tuna helper is all that's on the menu. Grab a spoon and a breath mint for after. If you weren't so emotional I would enjoy your humor more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: If you weren't so emotional I would enjoy your humor more will keep that in mind before I go off the rails again...don't want to be that guy. I want to be the other guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So don't track it? No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb Then take a break. We’ll call you when a biggie is inside 24. K? some of us realists get tired of you dying a 1000 deaths. And fwiw I know u know your stuff, but that doesn’t matter much anymore. It’s tiring parsing through your rubble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--i dont want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking Glad you don't speak for the forum. I'm going with 4 to 6 with no taint. Hmm, that sounds really bad. But you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Then take a break. We’ll call you when a biggie is inside 24. K? some of us realists get tired of you dying a 1000 deaths. Yep. I'm out. Will be back Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Then take a break. We’ll call you when a biggie is inside 24. K? some of us realists get tired of you dying a 1000 deaths. Yep. I'm out. Will be back Friday Which Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, Jandurin said: someone put ji out of our misery I don't care who you are, that is FUNNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Glad you don't speak for the forum. I'm going with 4 to 6 with no taint. Hmm, that sounds really bad. But you know what I mean. sounds like you are balls deep into this threat. Lets see what the Euro says but we are at a good latitude for this one. Compared to the one a two days ago that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Which Friday? Hopefully Friday February 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hopefully Friday February 29th February 29th 2024. Serious question though, we have a feb 29 coming up in 2020. Have we ever had snow on Feb 29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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