psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: GFS ENSEMBLES - The MJO has been all over the map the past week. From off the chart to diving to the center to now a loop back.. whats next? made famous. Where did you get that? Hasn’t updated on my source yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where did you get that? Hasn’t updated on my source yet. On Noaa's site believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: On Noaa's site believe it or not https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml go down to forecasts and then select the dynamic MJO forecast you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where did you get that? Hasn’t updated on my source yet. I think this stuff is what spooked Don S. Moving back to seven from eight. I admit it has been a bizzare winter. I mean the hell with how much snow falls, from a modeling and association point of view, this has to be the worse winter ever for results that go against what you would normally expect. I think certain long range forecasters have stopped posting out of the boy who cried wolf saying. For all I know a blizzard could strike in March but damn these models are having the hardest time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I actually like where we stand with the Tuesday deal. GEFS has trended to a much more snowy look over its last 3 runs. I’d take 2/3 all snow for sat/sun/Tuesday/Wednesday with a little ice thrown in on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Might be time to fire up the lawnmower to make sure it runs. The spring grass is going to be obnoxious this year. First cut by March 13th is my guess after two weeks of 60 + temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Might be time to fire up the lawnmower to make sure it runs. The spring grass is going to be obnoxious this year. First cut by March 13th is my guess after two weeks of 60 + temps Your mower might sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Trying to catch up. Did we recancel winter last night? And is the recancel before or after the 3 snow events in the next 6 days? Asking for a friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: On Noaa's site believe it or not Thanks...found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: get ready for another day of people posting 384 hour maps saying how good the atlantic looks or you saying how horrible everything looks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 You know there have been 4 accumulating snow events in the last month for many in our sub. With a chance of another 2-3 in the next week. Some in the forum could very well hit climo by next Tuesday. But if you read the long range threads over the last month you’d think we haven’t gotten an inch and the winter has been a total fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 59 minutes ago, Jandurin said: It looks like a trend Thanks, Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 the question isn't whether i'll remember the snow, it's whether i'll remember the snow or rain MORE the next few weeks will determine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, mattie g said: Thanks, Chuck. the trend in this case is models having no clue wtf mjo is going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: the trend in this case is models having no clue wtf mjo is going to do I'm disappointed in you...I've been teaching you all winter how to respond to people without directly responding to them. You were doing so well...no dessert for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: GFS ENSEMBLES - The MJO has been all over the map the past week. From off the chart to diving to the center to now a loop back.. whats next? made famous. 27 minutes ago, frd said: I think this stuff is what spooked Don S. Moving back to seven from eight. I admit it has been a bizzare winter. I mean the hell with how much snow falls, from a modeling and association point of view, this has to be the worse winter ever for results that go against what you would normally expect. I think certain long range forecasters have stopped posting out of the boy who cried wolf saying. For all I know a blizzard could strike in March but damn these models are having the hardest time. The thing is, that look around phase 8 should be a good thing. Yea it retrogrades back into 7 but not until VERY late and I wouldn't put any stock into it. The GEFS has been doing that for a long time and wrong. Look at where we would be right now according to the last 15 day GEFS forecast vs now... Even as recently as 48 hours ago the GEFS thought we would be looping around 6/7 right now and we are now into 8 just like the EPS showed. I expect the GEFS to continue to correct. Also...the statitical guidance based on analogs suggest progress into 8 and perhaps 1 is likely. The constructed analog CA has been doing the best lately so maybe a loop in 8 is the right idea but it doesn't regress to 7 and looks to be progressing again at the end. Besides...a loop in 8 is WHAT WE WANT! But unfortunately that does not ensure results. The EPS has been progressing the mjo through 8/1 and it has the trough stuck in the west also. Maybe the euro does that due to bias, and the gfs does that because of mjo error. I suppose... but I keep expecting the adjustment to the expected soi/mjo phase and it's going the other way right now honestly. Either way the SOI has already tanked and stays that way for the next 10+ days. There is subsidence all over the maritime continent, and the forcing is out near or east of the dateline on most guidance. The problem here is not the mjo imo. If we fail its something else. It's possible that there is something else pumping the ridge in the east and that is shifting the pattern upstream vs us looking at the PAC and expecting changes downstream. I honestly don't know. I've seen recently others seem equally confused, some chalking it up to chaos, I've yet to see a good theory as to why we might not get the expected reaction to the soi/mjo. Even Furtado hasn't mentioned any causality, simply an observed effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Trying to catch up. Did we recancel winter last night? And is the recancel before or after the 3 snow events in the next 6 days? Asking for a friend! 2 of those 3 are in the other thread. The one in this thread is kind of approaching the near range edge of what I consider "long range". But I hope people don't mistake the conversation and speculation I am having regarding the "long range" days 7-15 as having anything to do with our chances of snow from the 3 threats before that now entering the medium range. But at the same time... it is impossible to ignore the degradation of the pattern look week 2 right now. Especially when I expected and predicted it would evolve towards more +PNA -NAO and eastern trough and it is going the exact opposite way right now on all guidance. Question... do you have any thoughts/opinions what might be driving the SE ridge? With the SOI tanked and the MJO into 8 it's obviously not derived from the PAC tropical forcing. Is it the downstream effect of the north PAC blocking ridge forcing the trough into the west...and if so why is that stuck there despite favorable pac forcing? OR...is the SE ridge being caused by another forcing source and is blocking up the flow upstream and forcing the trough/ridge alignment out west to be where it is? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". I'm at 55%, with 90% of the winter gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". I don't think I've had a single Winter Storm Warning since 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I have no idea why the SE ridge is so persistent in the ensembles. This has been a weird year. The 500mb height anomalies for the winter to date look fairly Ninoish as I recall, but there’s been a whole lot of Nina looks as well. I think maybe this winter will go down as a warm neutral with some Nina hangover, but it has a lot of unique elements to it. Adding in the early SSW just complicates it all. Regardless, it’s worked out fairly well for us and even barring the unicorn HECS we’re hunting, it looks like our region will probably end up 75-125% of normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't think I've had a single Winter Storm Warning since 2016. NYC didn’t have a winter storm watch once from March 96 til December 2000. The events were that putrid that even at 48-60 hours not one warranted a watch. They never had a watch in January 2000 because they went right to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". There are a few we know will DEB every year unless it’s 2003, 2010, or 2014. Basically that once every 7 years kind of anomaly where we get 200% snowfall is all that can keep them happy. The other 85% of the time they will be miserable. But this year there are still pockets of mediocrity around our region and some of the debbing is from them. CAPE has every right to be frustrated for instance. As for me I go with the flow. When the pattern looks good and I think we have a good chance of snow I’m saying it looks good. Go back to last year, I was getting complaints that I was being too positive sometimes. I wasn’t debbing in early December. I thought that pattern was legit we just missed. And I didn’t deb the early January storm, I was one of the few that saw more upside than a weak waa wave from a few days away. Just wish the northern edge had been 25 miles north of where it was! But when I see things I don’t like I say that too. If you need a safe space and don’t like the honest truth both good AND BAD then put me on ignore. But I don’t think saying things look bad when they actually do look bad is debbing. That’s being honest. Debbing are the people that put a negative spin on everything or are never satisfied unless it’s a HECS. Btw I’m not jumping off yet. We had a bad run. It could flip back. And we have legit snow threats before the crap look. But what are we supposed to do when a crap run of guidance comes it? Just ignore it and don’t talk about it so people can be blissfully ignorant? I don’t get the complaining about “talking about bad runs”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I have no idea why the SE ridge is so persistent in the ensembles. This has been a weird year. The 500mb height anomalies for the winter to date look fairly Ninoish as I recall, but there’s been a whole lot of Nina looks as well. I think maybe this winter will go down as a warm neutral with some Nina hangover, but it has a lot of unique elements to it. Adding in the early SSW just complicates it all. Regardless, it’s worked out fairly well for us and even barring the unicorn HECS we’re hunting, it looks like our region will probably end up 75-125% of normal snowfall. Agree on the retrospective, but with the soi mostly neutral to positive and the mjo cycling around 4-7 all winter the non nino features infecting the pattern made sense. I’m more confused to see a -soi mjo phase 8 and still not get the typical pattern response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But I don’t think saying things look bad when they actually do look bad is debbing. That’s being honest. Debbing are the people that put a negative spin on everything or are never satisfied unless it’s a HECS. Your posts are well balanced psu. I think you have to present the good and the bad. Just because I mention a negative does not mean I am cancelling winter threats out there in the long range. But, discounting bad runs, or trends and sugar coating things is not cool, then you are biased. I think the purpose of this thread is the long range and the good and bad. It is also a platform to ask questions about the long range, learn from one another and seek answers to things that are relevant regarding the weather patterns and drivers that guide the long range forecats for our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agree on the retrospective, but with the soi mostly neutral to positive and the mjo cycling around 4-7 all winter the non nino features infecting the pattern made sense. I’m more confused to see a -soi mjo phase 8 and still not get the typical pattern response. I am going to bring over to this thread some good insights about the PAC and the evolution of the SSWE, It seems to touch on some things you were talking about. Does not answer everything but touches on some good theories. I am going to look around today about the SE ridge you brought up a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I think it is the poor performance in the long range and also the expectations for the winter that have combined to sour people. I really do think that whatever happens the rest of the winter is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a gangbusters end and also wouldn't be surprised to see an early spring. Extremes are really becoming the norm, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Jandurin said: the question isn't whether i'll remember the snow, it's whether i'll remember the snow or rain MORE the next few weeks will determine that this is where i'm at. we got one good snowstorm. aside from that, there's been a lot of snow left on the table because of all the rainers. let's see if the next couple weeks can turn the tide. if not, then just bring on spring...at least there's a good chance it'll be lush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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