Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But here it also sounded like he was saying that we have a chance of transient blocking (which he referred to as "-NAO blips"...he said time one of those right and...fun times ahead, lol) A -nao blip or a trasnient 50/50 is basically the same thing. There will be brief blocking in the atlantic at times. I do agree with that. We've been talking about it for a few days. Not a classic/traditional block but not progressive flow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Here's a good visual on one way for next week to work really well. See the closed upper level low south of Hudson Bay? What if that feature speeds up and drops south a little? It would fight back against the ridge poking up in the east. That little ridge is what allows the cold hp to escape as precip approaches. Something pressing down could help flatten the ridge and create confluence. High can't escape and we get a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's a good visual on one way for next week to work really well. See the closed upper level low south of Hudson Bay? What if that feature speeds up and drops south a little? It would fight back against the ridge poking up in the east. That little ridge is what allows the cold hp to escape as precip approaches. Something pressing down could help flatten the ridge and create confluence. High can't escape and we get a lot of snow Ah, I see! So I'd imagine that IF we were to see snowier runs...it would likely be because of that? (Or is there another way it could work?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah, I see! So I'd imagine that IF we were to see snowier runs...it would likely be because of that? (Or is there another way it could work?) Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol What? What did I say this time?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GFS has light snow to light rain for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: GFS has light snow to light rain for early next week. I guess if we’re going to fail that wouldn’t be a bad way to do it. Anything but a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I think if we're learning anything it's this... as long as we have a -pna and a southeast ridge every threat is gonna be hard to come by until we get some legit blocking. It's not impossible for us to snow, it's just hard. Definitely favors northern tier and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Mostly meaningless stat, but GFS has DCA getting below freezing only twice in the next 9 days. Two six-hour periods. Illustrates the problems with mixing and temps that would arise in any light precipitation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I think if we're learning anything it's this... as long as we have a -pna and a southeast ridge every threat is gonna be hard to come by until we get some legit blocking. It's not impossible for us to snow, it's just hard. Definitely favors northern tier and NE. Actually we seem to be doing better in -PNA. It's the EPO that kills us. AO verification is what you need opposite in this day of models (my take). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Euro is an ultra disaster next week. Drags...se ridge stronger. Not even close to one flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is an ultra disaster next week. Drags...se ridge stronger. Not even close to one flake Yeah didn't even get the CAD this time, lo But no matter...8 days to go. It can only go up from today's runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Today was probably the worst day of winter in terms of modeling. Euro crushes us with the southeast ridge. 570dm over dc. Hopefully its overdoing the sw trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Epic disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Epic disaster I'm going to call bs here...soi is now -25. No way that trough in the SW is going to get stuck and pump that ridge. Euro is off its rocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 36 minutes ago, Ji said: 43 minutes ago, Ji said: Epic disaster I'm going to call bs here...soi is now -25. No way that trough in the SW is going to get stuck and pump that ridge. Euro is off its rocker Yeah it's weird.. maybe these are new pattern times. (I noticed the ENSO subsurface was 19/19 with the N Pacific pattern until a few months ago now it's 0/3.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Ji said: Epic disaster I'm going to call bs here...soi is now -25. No way that trough in the SW is going to get stuck and pump that ridge. Euro is off its rocker You’d think it’s off it’s rocker but that southeast ridge got stronger on both the gfs and cmc op runs tonight as well. Both 0z gefs, geps, and eps start building the SE ridge around hr 120 and keep it there through most of their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The failure of any of the systems the next 5 days to bomb us hurting our chances next week. Leads to a further east weaker 50/50 and less suppression over the east. That allows the se ridge to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The failure of any of the systems the next 5 days to bomb us hurting our chances next week. Leads to a further east weaker 50/50 and less suppression over the east. That allows the se ridge to go to town. IDK I still think the bigger problem is the EPAC features are generally displaced too far west. When guidance shows progression- with an actual Aleutian low and EPO/PNA ridge further east, the SE ridge is flat/offshore or disappears. 0z GEFS looks good at the end, but EPS lately is back to the retro look with the N/EPAC features. Maybe we just never get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The failure of any of the systems the next 5 days to bomb us hurting our chances next week. Leads to a further east weaker 50/50 and less suppression over the east. That allows the se ridge to go to town. Actually looking at the 5 day mean (day 3-8) on the EPS for the upcoming period of interest the pressures showing up at 500mbs in the 50/50 region are pretty much spot on with the 12z run and actually a good deal stronger then the previous 00Z. What I do see on the last day of runs is a tendency to shift the SW trough westerly, as CAPE just mentioned, and a little more dig as well. Seeing the same tendencies of shifting that SW trough and digging it as well on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: IDK I still think the problem is the EPAC features are generally displaced too far west. When guidance shows progression- with an actual Aleutian low and EPO/PNA ridge further east, the SE ridge is flat or disappears. 0z GEFS looks good at the end, but EPS lately is back to the retro look with the N/EPAC features. Maybe we just never get there. The pac is the main problem. But it wasn’t getting better until after the threat next week. What was creating that was an excellent 50/50 with just enough blocking. But what I think helped that along was several bombing systems to our northeast that deepened the 50/50 and pumped heights above it. As each failed to bomb that feature degraded and now the blocking it totally gone and the 50/50 is weaker and displaced northeast of where we need it so the ridge can go ape behind it. Now on top of that the pac changes after that are gone on the eps and degraded and delayed past the believable lead times on the gefs. There wasn’t anything good on any of the 0z guidance. No way to spin it as ok. Just hope it’s wrong is all I can say. On a side note, Furtado said phase 1 is bad in nino years with a sswe also. So if phases 7-8-1 all become bad and we already know 3-6 are awful...basically that implies a swe in a nino is a bad thing. I’m not saying I buy that, but if the benefits of central pac forcing (phase 8/1) is offset by a swe and that benefit is the main reason ninos are good...than a swe is bad. I don’t see any other way to interpret that. Most of the times we said a swe saved us it wasn’t a nino if I remember so maybe. Just throwing that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually looking at the 5 day mean (day 3-8) on the EPS for the upcoming period of interest the pressures showing up at 500mbs in the 50/50 region are pretty much spot on with the 12z run and actually a good deal stronger then the previous 00Z. What I do see on the last day of runs is a tendency to shift the SW trough westerly, as CAPE just mentioned, and a little more dig as well. Seeing the same tendencies of shifting that SW trough and digging it as well on the GEFS. I was looking beyond that. The ridge goes crazy day 8-13 and the 50/50 is way too far northeast to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually looking at the 5 day mean (day 3-8) on the EPS for the upcoming period of interest the pressures showing up at 500mbs in the 50/50 region are pretty much spot on with the 12z run and actually a good deal stronger then the previous 00Z. What I do see on the last day of runs is a tendency to shift the SW trough westerly, as CAPE just mentioned, and a little more dig as well. Seeing the same tendencies of shifting that SW trough and digging it as well on the GEFS. I didn’t really compare the eps runs. On the gefs it looks like the trough in the SW is about where it always was for next weeks threat. Comparing a couple days ago when it looked better what I notice is the confluence to our north and suppressive flow shifting northeast. That’s partly because all the systems are trending weaker and not lowering heights there as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was looking beyond that. The ridge goes crazy day 8-13 and the 50/50 is way too far northeast to help. Honestly I am not seeing much in the way of run over run changes within the N-Atlantic on either the GEFS nor the EPS. Where I am seeing the changes are in the west. And that is with the the models getting more aggressive with digging that feature and shifting that westward. It's the same problem we have been fighting with a good chunk of the year. Now if it was just the EPS I could attribute that to bias. But we are seeing the same tendencies with the GEFS which lends weight to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pac is the main problem. But it wasn’t getting better until after the threat next week. What was creating that was an excellent 50/50 with just enough blocking. But what I think helped that along was several bombing systems to our northeast that deepened the 50/50 and pumped heights above it. As each failed to bomb that feature degraded and now the blocking it totally gone and the 50/50 is weaker and displaced northeast of where we need it so the ridge can go ape behind it. Now on top of that the pac changes after that are gone on the eps and degraded and delayed past the believable lead times on the gefs. There wasn’t anything good on any of the 0z guidance. No way to spin it as ok. Just hope it’s wrong is all I can say. On a side note, Furtado said phase 1 is bad in nino years with a sswe also. So if phases 7-8-1 all become bad and we already know 3-6 are awful...basically that implies a swe in a nino is a bad thing. I’m not saying I buy that, but if the benefits of central pac forcing (phase 8/1) is offset by a swe and that benefit is the main reason ninos are good...than a swe is bad. I don’t see any other way to interpret that. Most of the times we said a swe saved us it wasn’t a nino if I remember so maybe. Just throwing that out there. It depends on specifically what period you are looking at, but in general the lower height anomalies are there off the Canadian maritimes where we want. The degree of ridging over GL varies, and has generally been weaker on the EPS than the GEFS. Big picture is the long wave pattern progression we are expecting to see keeps getting pushed back until the end of each run. More so on the EPS(its actually beyond D15 now lol). We can still do ok because the SE ridge does get beat down at times and there are threats on the table. I am just questioning whether we ever see a mean E US trough at this point. It may just stay out west and when things relax up top, it breaks down/retreats into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It depends on specifically what period you are looking at, but in general the lower height anomalies are there off the Canadian maritimes where we want. The degree of ridging over GL varies, and has generally been weaker on the EPS than the GEFS. Big picture is the long wave pattern progression we are expecting to see keeps generally getting pushed back until the end of each run. More so on the EPS. We can still do ok because the SE ridge does get beat down at times and there are threats on the table. I am just questioning whether we ever see a mean E US trough at this point. It may just stay out west and when things relax up top, it breaks down/retreats into Canada. I was looking at the gefs, I think you and Showme were looking at the eps. They both degraded but for different reasons. Gefs is actually east with the western trough compared to a couple days ago but it degraded the look up top. Eps kept the look up top but shifted the trough west. Both results =crap. ETS: talking specifically for the threat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Even on the eps though the trough out west isn’t that diffeeent now from 3 days ago when the euro was spitting out snow solutions. I do thing the look to our north is hurting. The anomalies shifted further east, less blocking...opens the door for the se ridge to pump under/behind those features. The western ridge was there 2-3 days ago imo but the se ridge was being suppressed. Now it’s going to town and the suppression on top is lessened. After that day 8+ the western trough pulls back and becomes a problem that no Atlantic help can overcome. But for the threat next week day 7 I don’t see much difference with the epo and Pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was looking at the gefs, I think you and Showme were looking at the eps. They both degraded but for different reasons. Gefs is actually east with the western trough compared to a couple days ago but it degraded the look up top. Eps kept the look up top but shifted the trough west. Both results =crap. ETS: talking specifically for the threat next week. Not really sure you should be just taking a snapshot at one particular storm/time frame with the upcoming period of interest. With such a complex setup we probably should be looking at the tendencies through the whole period of time. And what I saw I didn't like in regards to that SW trough. Digging deeper and shifting west. As far as the N-Atlantic I actually though it improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 All that and the 6z gfs just spit out it’s best look for next week in days. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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