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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But here it also sounded like he was saying that we have a chance of transient blocking (which he referred to as "-NAO blips"...he said time one of those right and...fun times ahead, lol)

A -nao blip or a trasnient 50/50 is basically the same thing. There will be brief blocking in the atlantic at times. I do agree with that. We've been talking about it for a few days. Not a classic/traditional block but not progressive flow either. 

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Here's a good visual on one way for next week to work really well. See the closed upper level low south of Hudson Bay? What if that feature speeds up and drops south a little? It would fight back against the ridge poking up in the east. That little ridge is what allows the cold hp to escape as precip approaches. Something pressing down could help flatten the ridge and create confluence. High can't escape and we get a lot of snow 

gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's a good visual on one way for next week to work really well. See the closed upper level low south of Hudson Bay? What if that feature speeds up and drops south a little? It would fight back against the ridge poking up in the east. That little ridge is what allows the cold hp to escape as precip approaches. Something pressing down could help flatten the ridge and create confluence. High can't escape and we get a lot of snow 

gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

Ah, I see! So I'd imagine that IF we were to see snowier runs...it would likely be because of that? (Or is there another way it could work?)

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I think if we're learning anything it's this... as long as we have a -pna and a southeast ridge every threat is gonna be hard to come by until we get some legit blocking. It's not impossible for us to snow, it's just hard. Definitely favors northern tier and NE. 

Actually we seem to be doing better in -PNA. It's the EPO that kills us. AO verification is what you need opposite in this day of models (my take). 

ao.sprd2.gif

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36 minutes ago, Ji said:
43 minutes ago, Ji said:
Epic disaster 636d3b728eb25b130b82f9784a294b4d.jpg&key=d0d9cc4e824dadaefd30160a2456287caca2b68c21b280c46f0387dff7497fbf

I'm going to call bs here...soi is now -25. No way that trough in the SW is going to get stuck and pump that ridge. Euro is off its rocker

Yeah it's weird.. maybe these are new pattern times. (I noticed the ENSO subsurface was 19/19 with the N Pacific pattern until a few months ago now it's 0/3.)

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, Ji said:
Epic disaster 636d3b728eb25b130b82f9784a294b4d.jpg&key=d0d9cc4e824dadaefd30160a2456287caca2b68c21b280c46f0387dff7497fbf

I'm going to call bs here...soi is now -25. No way that trough in the SW is going to get stuck and pump that ridge. Euro is off its rocker

You’d think it’s off it’s rocker but that southeast ridge got stronger on both the gfs and cmc op runs tonight as well. 

Both 0z gefs, geps, and eps start building the SE ridge around hr 120 and keep it there through most of their runs. 

 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The failure of any of the systems the next 5 days to bomb us hurting our chances next week. Leads to a further east weaker 50/50 and less suppression over the east. That allows the se ridge to go to town. 

IDK I still think the bigger problem is the EPAC features are generally displaced too far west. When guidance shows progression- with an actual Aleutian low and EPO/PNA ridge further east, the SE ridge is flat/offshore or disappears. 0z GEFS looks good at the end, but EPS lately is back to the retro look with the N/EPAC features. Maybe we just never get there.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The failure of any of the systems the next 5 days to bomb us hurting our chances next week. Leads to a further east weaker 50/50 and less suppression over the east. That allows the se ridge to go to town. 

Actually looking at the 5 day mean (day 3-8) on the EPS for the upcoming period of interest the pressures showing up at 500mbs in the 50/50 region are pretty much spot on with the 12z run and actually a good deal stronger then the previous 00Z. What I do see on the last day of runs is a tendency to shift the SW trough westerly, as CAPE just mentioned, and a little more dig as well. Seeing the same tendencies of shifting that SW trough and digging it as well on the GEFS.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

IDK I still think the problem is the EPAC features are generally displaced too far west. When guidance shows progression- with an actual Aleutian low and EPO/PNA ridge further east, the SE ridge is flat or disappears. 0z GEFS looks good at the end, but EPS lately is back to the retro look with the N/EPAC features. Maybe we just never get there.

The pac is the main problem. But it wasn’t getting better until after the threat next week. What was creating that was an excellent 50/50 with just enough blocking.  But what I think helped that along was several bombing systems to our northeast that deepened the 50/50 and pumped heights above it. As each failed to bomb that feature degraded and now the blocking it totally gone and the 50/50 is weaker and displaced northeast of where we need it so the ridge can go ape behind it. 

Now on top of that the pac changes after that are gone on the eps and degraded and delayed past the believable lead times on the gefs. 

There wasn’t anything good on any of the 0z guidance. No way to spin it as ok. Just hope it’s wrong is all I can say. 

On a side note, Furtado said phase 1 is bad in nino years with a sswe also. So if phases 7-8-1 all become bad and we already know 3-6 are awful...basically that implies a swe in a nino is a bad thing. I’m not saying I buy that, but if the benefits of central pac forcing (phase 8/1) is offset by a swe and that benefit is the main reason ninos are good...than a swe is bad. I don’t see any other way to interpret that. Most of the times we said a swe saved us it wasn’t a nino if I remember so maybe. Just throwing that out there. 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually looking at the 5 day mean (day 3-8) on the EPS for the upcoming period of interest the pressures showing up at 500mbs in the 50/50 region are pretty much spot on with the 12z run and actually a good deal stronger then the previous 00Z. What I do see on the last day of runs is a tendency to shift the SW trough westerly, as CAPE just mentioned, and a little more dig as well. Seeing the same tendencies of shifting that SW trough and digging it as well on the GEFS.

I was looking beyond that. The ridge goes crazy day 8-13 and the 50/50 is way too far northeast to help. 

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually looking at the 5 day mean (day 3-8) on the EPS for the upcoming period of interest the pressures showing up at 500mbs in the 50/50 region are pretty much spot on with the 12z run and actually a good deal stronger then the previous 00Z. What I do see on the last day of runs is a tendency to shift the SW trough westerly, as CAPE just mentioned, and a little more dig as well. Seeing the same tendencies of shifting that SW trough and digging it as well on the GEFS.

I didn’t really compare the eps runs. On the gefs it looks like the trough in the SW is about where it always was for next weeks threat. Comparing a couple days ago when it looked better what I notice is the confluence to our north and suppressive flow shifting northeast. That’s partly because all the systems are trending weaker and not lowering heights there as much.  

07CFC6DB-7844-4C68-AC12-10E4B6FF0D11.thumb.png.96e1bd30564b988ec23fb44bfd05fa57.png

DA2CD0B5-0BB5-4D81-9FAC-647FFBE3DB16.thumb.png.f0c17828b69ceee3d023443f0e85cb71.png

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was looking beyond that. The ridge goes crazy day 8-13 and the 50/50 is way too far northeast to help. 

Honestly I am not seeing much in the way of run over run changes within the N-Atlantic on either the GEFS nor the EPS. Where I am seeing the changes are in the west. And that is with the the models getting more aggressive with digging that feature and shifting that westward. It's the same problem we have been fighting with a good chunk of the year. Now if it was just the EPS I could attribute that to bias. But we are seeing the same tendencies with the GEFS which lends weight to this.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pac is the main problem. But it wasn’t getting better until after the threat next week. What was creating that was an excellent 50/50 with just enough blocking.  But what I think helped that along was several bombing systems to our northeast that deepened the 50/50 and pumped heights above it. As each failed to bomb that feature degraded and now the blocking it totally gone and the 50/50 is weaker and displaced northeast of where we need it so the ridge can go ape behind it. 

Now on top of that the pac changes after that are gone on the eps and degraded and delayed past the believable lead times on the gefs. 

There wasn’t anything good on any of the 0z guidance. No way to spin it as ok. Just hope it’s wrong is all I can say. 

On a side note, Furtado said phase 1 is bad in nino years with a sswe also. So if phases 7-8-1 all become bad and we already know 3-6 are awful...basically that implies a swe in a nino is a bad thing. I’m not saying I buy that, but if the benefits of central pac forcing (phase 8/1) is offset by a swe and that benefit is the main reason ninos are good...than a swe is bad. I don’t see any other way to interpret that. Most of the times we said a swe saved us it wasn’t a nino if I remember so maybe. Just throwing that out there. 

It depends on specifically what period you are looking at, but in general the lower height anomalies are there off the Canadian maritimes where we want. The degree of ridging over GL varies, and has generally been weaker on the EPS than the GEFS. Big picture is the long wave pattern progression we are expecting to see keeps getting pushed back until the end of each run. More so on the EPS(its actually beyond D15 now lol). We can still do ok because the SE ridge does get beat down at times and there are threats on the table. I am just questioning whether we ever see a mean E US trough at this point. It may just stay out west and when things relax up top, it breaks down/retreats into Canada.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It depends on specifically what period you are looking at, but in general the lower height anomalies are there off the Canadian maritimes where we want. The degree of ridging over GL varies, and has generally been weaker on the EPS than the GEFS. Big picture is the long wave pattern progression we are expecting to see keeps generally getting pushed back until the end of each run. More so on the EPS. We can still do ok because the SE ridge does get beat down at times and there are threats on the table. I am just questioning whether we ever see a mean E US trough at this point. It may just stay out west and when things relax up top, it breaks down/retreats into Canada.

I was looking at the gefs, I think you and Showme were looking at the eps. They both degraded but for different reasons. Gefs is actually east with the western trough compared to a couple days ago but it degraded the look up top. Eps kept the look up top but shifted the trough west. Both results =crap. 

ETS:  talking specifically for the threat next week. 

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Even on the eps though the trough out west isn’t that diffeeent now from 3 days ago when the euro was spitting out snow solutions. I do thing the look to our north is hurting. The anomalies shifted further east, less blocking...opens the door for the se ridge to pump under/behind those features. The western ridge was there 2-3 days ago imo but the se ridge was being suppressed. Now it’s going to town and the suppression on top is lessened. 

After that day 8+ the western trough pulls back and becomes a problem that no Atlantic help can overcome. But for the threat next week day 7 I don’t see much difference with the epo and Pna. 

BF5B5A43-6FD8-4549-8ED2-0FEE27ECC772.thumb.png.f7a4978ba887ed4f0146c20f998dcf4c.pngCE305D43-87D5-461D-ACA3-8AC596655EAB.thumb.png.5c812a99bb78420a265ba9a2f39c91d3.png

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was looking at the gefs, I think you and Showme were looking at the eps. They both degraded but for different reasons. Gefs is actually east with the western trough compared to a couple days ago but it degraded the look up top. Eps kept the look up top but shifted the trough west. Both results =crap. 

ETS:  talking specifically for the threat next week. 

Not really sure you should be just taking a snapshot at one particular storm/time frame with the upcoming period of interest. With such a complex setup we probably should be looking at the tendencies through the whole period of time. And what I saw I didn't like in regards to that SW trough. Digging deeper and shifting west. As far as the N-Atlantic I actually though it improved. 

gfs12z.gif.748bca077e4bd8ec31a16a5d6cfaaa6f.gif

 

gfs00z.gif.a39add988787de5ef9be7d70f4415e8a.gif

 

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