psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS remains rock steady with rolling the North American pattern forward. The most important shift is the ridge axis out west. The EPS is stubborn and just starting to build the +PNA at the end of the run but still keeps the conus trough axis in the west. Both the GEFS and GEPS are quicker and are also very similar with their upper level patterns. I think the EPS is going to cave here before long. I've said this before but the PNA tends to oscillate in shorter timescales than than other teleconnections. I strongly believe the PNA and/or EPO are likely to improve (possibly signficantly) inside of 2 weeks. Obviously we have multiple chances over the next 10 days for snowfall so that's pretty sweet. By the time we're done tracking whatever happens with the larger storm next week I think the best North American pattern of the season will be knocking on the door in the mid range. Good times. It is odd the eps seems stuck on an idea that is out of line with the pacific forcing while the gefs goes right to the exorcised look. I suppose maybe there is a complex issue the eps can see but more likely it’s just wrong. People forget how often the eps is awful day 10+ also. Plus a minor error can have impacts that are exponential downstream. If the eps is erroneously dumping too much trough out west it will pump more se ridge which then shunts what does come east later further north muting the attempt at an NAO ridge. Change that a little and suddenly a chain reaction happens and we get the gefs look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Definitely lost the heavy hitters in the GEFS, though it might be meaningless if they were skewed by mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Definitely lost the heavy hitters in the GEFS, though it might be meaningless if they were skewed by mixed precip. Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that. It's from multiple events over the next 2 1/2 weeks though. There were some solutions in there hinting at 3 plus feet previously. Most of those are in the 18 inch range and almost half of that is probably the mixed slop for the middle of next week. One thing I do find odd is that almost every member has the same general idea. That's really unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Yup... this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I can extrapolate 75 inches from 18 inches from multiple events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's from multiple events over the next 2 1/2 weeks though. There were some solutions in there hinting at 3 plus feet previously. Most of those are in the 18 inch range and almost half of that is probably the mixed slop for the middle of next week. One thing I do find odd is that almost every member has the same general idea. That's really unusual. This is such a terrible post, I don’t even know where to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I can extrapolate 75 inches from 18 inches from multiple events Must be the new math they are teaching these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that. LOL, I know, right?! My first thought on the "losing the heavy hitters" comment was...dafuq? All caveats with the snow maps aside and looking at it from a general perspective, GEFS still has 18 of 21 members that give DC/Balt/I95 region over 6". And several of those are quite a bit more than that. The mean is about a foot or so and this has been the case I think for a few runs now. Again not taking literally and of course there's no guarantee, but right now that's a helluva signal through the last week of February. I also like how the "gradient" into the higher amounts is pushed a bit east it appears. I don't know what the heck has happened in this thread or the other one covering this weekend specifically, but I swear a lot of the commentary suddenly went downhill even with us staring at the possibility of 3 events in the next 7-10 days! Crickey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Must be the new math they are teaching these days. You mean NAM math, right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's from multiple events over the next 2 1/2 weeks though. There were some solutions in there hinting at 3 plus feet previously. Most of those are in the 18 inch range and almost half of that is probably the mixed slop for the middle of next week. One thing I do find odd is that almost every member has the same general idea. That's really unusual. I don't recall 3 foot plus amounts from any GEFS member in this region but whatever, doesn't matter. A lot have been a foot or more. Fact is, average snow for the entire month of February is about 6-7" for DC-Balt. For the mean to show double that over the next 2 weeks to the end of the month...with many members showing even more...is quite a signal and enough to raise eyebrows. It could come to not much of anything in the end of course, but both the GEFS and EPS have been hitting the next couple weeks pretty hard. Don't get too caught up on exact amounts shown on those individual member maps, look at the overall signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 You know it's getting tense in here when we're drilling down into the fine details of the most inaccurate snow maps ever designed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You know it's getting tense in here when we're drilling down into the fine details of the most inaccurate snow maps ever designed. It's all relative. We can go all month (or all winter) with no more than an inch of snow and then we see a snow map with 20". So when it puts out a reasonable 3-6", we all freak that winter is canceled. We all could use a dose of Lithium during the winter. Except you, of course. Always chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know it's getting tense in here when we're drilling down into the fine details of the most inaccurate snow maps ever designed. Haha very true! Admittedly maybe I got a bit caught up in that but mostly to respond to some of the more hyperventilating type of posts as to whether amounts were decreasing or not. Like I said, what the heck happened in here since this afternoon, when we have 3 possible threats currently on the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know it's getting tense in here when we're drilling down into the fine details of the most inaccurate snow maps ever designed. Whoa wait! I’ve been watching the Caps game. Did someone in the last hour breakout a CRAS snow map!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It's all relative. We can go all month (or all winter) with no more than an inch of snow and then we see a snow map with 20". So when it puts out a reasonable 3-6", we all freak that winter is canceled. We all could use a dose of Lithium during the winter. Except you, of course. Always chill. Can we prescribe a ton of Valium for Ji and tell him to call back later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It's all relative. We can go all month (or all winter) with no more than an inch of snow and then we see a snow map with 20". So when it puts out a reasonable 3-6", we all freak that winter is canceled. We all could use a dose of Lithium during the winter. Except you, of course. Always chill. A fairly large group of people never enjoy any snow event because of this. All it takes is one op run showing a big hit like 7 days out and anything less than that is a disaster... which applies to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of our events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: A fairly large group of people never enjoy any snow event because of this. All it takes is one op run showing a big hit like 7 days out and anything less than that is a disaster... which applies to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of our events. Can you translate HM's tweets from just minutes ago? I have such a hard time understanding him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Can you translate HM's tweets from just minutes ago? I have such a hard time understanding him. Even the more experienced posters on here usually do, lol (he literally labels his Twitter feed as "annoyingly esoteric"...and that it is!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A fairly large group of people never enjoy any snow event because of this. All it takes is one op run showing a big hit like 7 days out and anything less than that is a disaster... which applies to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of our events. I just read a bit...there sure are some real booger eaters in here...terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Can you translate HM's tweets from just minutes ago? I have such a hard time understanding him. He's basically just saying that the flow over the Pacific is not cooperating for a large coastal snowstorm in the east. He's not saying it won't snow just that conditions remain unfavorable for a classic large coastal snowstorm. I agree with that as well. Until we lose the deep trough in the western US the most probable outcomes of snow events will be light or mixed events and they won't cover a bunch of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: He's basically just saying that the flow over the Pacific is not cooperating for a large coastal snowstorm in the east. He's not saying it won't snow just that conditions remain unfavorable for a classic largr coastal snowstorm. I agree with that as well. Until we lose the deep trough in the western US the most probable outcomes of snow events will be light or mixed events and they won't cover a bunch of real estate. Thank you. I just read his last tweet and he saying the -NAO was a swing and a miss and figured he meant any big coastal storms did not seem to be in the picture over the next week. The rest I was not so sure about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A fairly large group of people never enjoy any snow event because of this. All it takes is one op run showing a big hit like 7 days out and anything less than that is a disaster... which applies to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of our events. I've learned a great deal from being on this forum since 2016. I tend to try to stay optimistic and know that we win some and we lose some, but the tracking is the most enjoyable part of winter. Snow maps are just fantasy until there is measurable snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Yeah But we can still fake it until we make it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Thank you. I just read his last tweet and he saying the -NAO was a swing and a miss and figured he meant any big coastal storms did not seem to be in the picture over the next week. The rest I was not so sure about. And now he just said that there could be what he calls -NAO "blips" that if timed right could be fun times for the East Coast. As in ... maybe next week... if I am reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Thank you. I just read his last tweet and he saying the -NAO was a swing and a miss and figured he meant any big coastal storms did not seem to be in the picture over the next week. The rest I was not so sure about. But here it also sounded like he was saying that we have a chance of transient blocking (which he referred to as "-NAO blips"...he said time one of those right and...fun times ahead, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But here it also sounded like he was saying that we have a chance of transient blocking (which he referred to as "-NAO blips"...he said time one of those right and...fun times ahead, lol) Read post above ^. I saw that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I felt so proud of myself for actually getting the gist of his tweet...lol @Bob Chill Basically what we were talking about earlier with the transient blocking, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I felt so proud of myself for actually getting the gist of his tweet...lol @Bob Chill Basically what we were talking about earlier with the transient blocking, right? From his latest tweet it does not seem like he sees the -NAO "blip" for the mid next week storm though. But does see a wintery mix . Although he did not specify the MA, so not sure where on the EC he is thinking. I know he is more NJ/NY . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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