Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'll let others wrangle over the pattern. I'm focused on the 8th-12th. I'm liking our prospects but quite a trek still before it gets real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll let others wrangle over the pattern. I'm focused on the 8th-12th. I'm liking our prospects but quite a trek still before it gets real. Hey look over there at that pile of crap.....sorry I missed it I was watching it snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey look over there at that pile of crap.....sorry I missed it I was watching it snow today. Just wait until the 10-12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1958 had a LOT more nao blocking in January than we have this year. At times the Pac was hostile so that much is similar. I used 1958 as an example of a Feb/March period with a predominantly -PNA that was still cold and snowy in the east because of an NAO block. That winter did not follow a similar script to this one in terms of the H5 up until that point though. I guess in a roundabout way I was asking if you felt there was an increased chance for a late season bomb vs other years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just wait until the 10-12th Since that is a specific threat now does it belong in the other thread or here still? Honestly asking because I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Since that is a specific threat now does it belong in the other thread or here still? Honestly asking because I am not sure. I just moved my fantasy banter thoughts over there. Someone needs to make a rule book and a road map to this place nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I guess in a roundabout way I was asking if you felt there was an increased chance for a late season bomb vs other years. The prevalence of the STJ and the sheer number of juiced up storms would argue an increased chance of something. IF we ever do get a period with a true NAO block I think the chances of it paying off with some big juiced up snow bomb is higher than normal even for a blocking period. But we need to get the pattern right first before worrying about that much. If the current EPO/WAR pattern persists we wouldnt want a big bomb storm, our best hope for snow in that pattern would be weak waves that dont phase riding along a pressing boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12z GEFS says we can uncancel winter again at least for 2 hours until EPS arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You are right... but that has been more of a DC area localized thing. It certainly hasn't "found a way" in Philly or NYC or Boston. And while I have had some snow...and got 3" the other day, I am mostly into that Philly north snow hole, especially wrt climo, so maybe my view on "finding a way" with a continuation of the same pattern is not as rosy and optimistic as you. If my current pace of snowfall continues I will end up at only about 60% of climo for the year. But that difference of opinion is totally understandable given our different back yard results. And things like exact cutoffs on snowstorms is so flukey that the next "find a way" storm could dump on me and even the score, I am aware of that. Still emotions bleed into things sometimes and sitting on a god awful result so far its hard to be "ok" with muddling along in the same pattern that got me to this awful result so far. That hole also goes E as well as NE. Been pretty suckish over here lol. Take away the part 2 surprise from the UL energy that focused on the DC area, and they would be pretty mediocre too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Since that is a specific threat now does it belong in the other thread or here still? Honestly asking because I am not sure. Just now, Bob Chill said: I just moved my fantasy banter thoughts over there. Someone needs to make a rule book and a road map to this place nowadays. Well, maybe there's been some fantasy banter thoughts...but that is a threat window that has been showing up for a little while now. Not that it matters what I say here per se, but seems too far out to consider it a "specific threat", it's still kind of longer range right now and could disappear anyhow. So discussion of that "window" here to me would be warranted...until it actually becomes a legit threat. Six of one, half dozen of another, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GEFS says we can uncanel winter again at least for 2 hours until EPS arrives. Yeah, weenie suicides aborted! Love the look... 12z GGEM also appears to be hinting at a storm at the end of it's run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 FWIW, Capital Weather Gang is going with above-normal snowfall in February even with the early February thaw. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/31/february-outlook-major-thaw-start-month-then-snow-chances-rebound/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I am going to enjoy the torch. Especially if it’s brief and some of these long range looks can turn into medium range threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW, Capital Weather Gang is going with above-normal snowfall in February even with the early February thaw. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/31/february-outlook-major-thaw-start-month-then-snow-chances-rebound/ Are you aware how much Wes contributes to this update? I know when CWG came out in early Jan about the incoming possibility of the SSWE and the polar vortex visit Ventrice and Judah were included. I value Wes's input a lot ! If he were to say game on that would ease some folks concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I am going to enjoy the torch. Especially if it’s brief and some of these long range looks can turn into medium range threats. Yeah, think about it. In a perfect world, we score an inch tomorrow. Melt's on saturday. Then we're tracking next weekend's threat while we enjoy the torch. Never have any down time...in a perfect world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12Z GFS and FV3 both show threats in the first half of Feb. Interested to see if they fall apart (Probably) or at least one of them is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, think about it. In a perfect world, we score an inch tomorrow. Melt's on saturday. Then we're tracking next weekend's threat while we enjoy the torch. Never have any down time...in a perfect world. Yep. And we can easily go a week with no snow an arctic cold pattern. I’ll happily sip a cold drink on the deck while looking at fantasy snow maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That hole also goes E as well as NE. Been pretty suckish over here lol. Take away the part 2 surprise from the UL energy that focused on the DC area, and they would be pretty mediocre too. Yea I don't want to burst anyone's bubble but snowfall can be flukey and when your mean is so low like the DC area...one weird lucky break like that can skew things a lot. I generally don't think its been a great pattern for snowfall, DC just got really lucky. But that is just my opinion which isn't worth much. But I tend to not feel warm and fuzzy at the prospects of staying in the same general pattern and riding it out, I think what is more likely than more "lucky" breaks is the law of averages catches up to us and we have similar results to philly and NYC the rest of the way if the pattern doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 50 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, maybe there's been some fantasy banter thoughts...but that is a threat window that has been showing up for a little while now. Not that it matters what I say here per se, but seems too far out to consider it a "specific threat", it's still kind of longer range right now and could disappear anyhow. So discussion of that "window" here to me would be warranted...until it actually becomes a legit threat. Six of one, half dozen of another, I suppose. I don't really care where we discuss what. I guess one benefit to this new system is when things are slow and there isn't much weather to talk about we can have conversations about how and in what way we should be discussing the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'll let others wrangle over the pattern. I'm focused on the 8th-12th. I'm liking our prospects but quite a trek still before it gets real. While it is long range, I think it fair to say that its been a humbling lesson to many. I agree 100% (for this whacko season anyway, and whatevers left of it). Just going to look at things inside of 10 and really not much beyond. Too many LR rugs yanked this year, and like you said, we have found ways to get it done in spite of less than stellar looks. Boy do I/we wish for a stable and predictable pattern, but not likely this year, even though "normal" climo would argue for best blocking in Feb/Mar. WRT late next week, I still think any further muting of the warmup period could likely help the late week system and bring it to a more favorable solution. Just a hunch, as this has been an anomalously cold couple days, and models sometimes play catch up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I think we are going to need to be "lucky" to score on any chance next weekend. But that seems to be the case with most storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Its Day 10 of the EURO... but since I am trying to learn: With that h5 in W Canada... is that good or bad? Also, looks like the Pacific isn't helping much as the PNA ridge is very small nosing into AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I don't want to burst anyone's bubble but snowfall can be flukey and when your mean is so low like the DC area...one weird lucky break like that can skew things a lot. I generally don't think its been a great pattern for snowfall, DC just got really lucky. But that is just my opinion which isn't worth much. But I tend to not feel warm and fuzzy at the prospects of staying in the same general pattern and riding it out, I think what is more likely than more "lucky" breaks is the law of averages catches up to us and we have similar results to philly and NYC the rest of the way if the pattern doesn't change. I agree. It hasn't been the worst pattern of all time, but it's been pretty close. The "big storm" of the season so far hit a relatively small area, and an even smaller area got the more significant totals thanks to a few localized bands that formed. Other than that, it's been pretty much a shutout winter other than a few very, very light events that were basically coatings to an inch. There's been very little to track, and as ugly as it has been for us, those north of us have had it even worse. There's really a rather small area between Columbia or so and parts of Southwest VA that have had a decent to good winter so far thanks to each having a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Its Day 10 of the EURO... but since I am trying to learn: With that h5 in W Canada... is that good or bad? Also, looks like the Pacific isn't helping much as the PNA ridge is very small nosing into AK You'd want those higher heights through AK to move into western Canada (-EPO) the PNA domain runs through the intermountain west. You want higher heights running through ID and that map shows a big trough there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: You'd want those higher heights through AK to move into western Canada (-EPO) the PNA domain runs through the intermountain west. You want higher heights running through ID and that map shows a big trough there. thats still probably a snow look if that 50/50 low is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Ji said: thats still probably a snow look if that 50/50 low is real I just tried my hand at editing that map with the "good" and "not so good" and I'm terrible at it. If the -NAO and 50/50 held I could see something sliding south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: I just tried my hand at editing that map with the "good" and "not so good" and I'm terrible at it. If the -NAO and 50/50 held I could see something sliding south of us. if that 50/50 low is for real...that should lock the big huge High in a nice place and let that system slide south of us...or close enough to give us a thump at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: if that 50/50 low is for real...that should lock the big huge High in a nice place and let that system slide south of us...or close enough to give us a thump at the start PD3! Except closer to Valentine's Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: thats still probably a snow look if that 50/50 low is real Not with that full lat ridge developing. Pray the NAO remains a separate entity and I will agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: if that 50/50 low is for real...that should lock the big huge High in a nice place and let that system slide south of us...or close enough to give us a thump at the start Yea, would probably be a west track with a front end frozen deal when extrapolating a fantasy op panel even deeper into fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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