Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: 6z GFS slides the weekend light snow deal south to DT land. Wonder how he would handle that with his proclamation that winter is done. Seasonal trends at play this weekend. This sub region should score (possibly big?) with (not that anyone cares and not a complaint I am actually voicing opinion in a positive outcome for y'all) M/D line N getting fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I don't hate that image at this range that 7" is over downtown Nokesville. but doesn't matter since Topper said 50s...he is a big bag of peanut turds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I mean it just wants to snow in the Mid Atlantic this year. I cant remember another year where just about every threat in a winter worked out for our area over everyone else. 09/10 maybe. But even that season NE got theirs as well. Just a wild seasonal trend this year for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Topper says 50s Hmmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I was trolling him and his response to my 5” of snow was “a few hours of snow and sleet and suddenly you think winter is back”. Lol. The problem with his proclamation is people will remember the snow against what he said. He will be viewed as wrong (and likely already is by many that just got snow) regarding no winter in the east through the 28th. You guys get one or two more wintry systems in the next 6-10 and the egg is not only on his face, but so thick he will need a chisel to get it all off. Good luck with that sneaky system for Saturday, maybe you guys can back into one. Pulling for the MA, just to see DT go down in flames. Any snow in Richmond, would be icing on the cake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 DT just trying to deb his way into a HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I mean it just wants to snow in the Mid Atlantic this year. I cant remember another year where just about every threat in a winter worked out for our area over everyone else. 09/10 maybe. But even that season NE got theirs as well. Just a wild seasonal trend this year for our area. This is a real thing ie when the pattern sets up and it just wants to bullseye and snow in certain areas. Usually takes a major pattern change to alter this. 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The problem with his proclamation is people will remember the snow against what he said. He will be viewed as wrong (and likely already is by many that just got snow) regarding no winter in the east through the 28th. You guys get one or two more wintry systems in the next 6-10 and the egg is not only on his face, but so thick he will need a chisel to get it all off. Good luck with that sneaky system for Saturday, maybe you guys can back into one. Pulling for the MA, just to see DT go down in flames. Any snow in Richmond, would be icing on the cake. My thing is the gentleman goes with a cold and snowy winter with AN to much AN snowfall. I can understand adjusting your call at this time of the season but to basically write it off and suggest winter cancel is absurd. There was and is still plenty of time to hit his outlook. If there was overwhelming evidence to suggest it's over then ok, but even if the signals for a wild end of the month were merely muted it was still premature to talk in definitive as he did. But the pattern is screaming for many more chances going forward. I dont hate the guy I just dont understand the logic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 One of them said it He's being emotional 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is a real thing ie when the pattern sets up and it just wants to bullseye and snow in certain areas. Usually takes a major pattern change to alter this. My thing is the gentleman goes with a cold and snowy winter with AN to much AN snowfall. I can understand adjusting your call at this time of the season but to basically write it off and suggest winter cancel is absurd. There was and is still plenty of time to hit his outlook. If there was overwhelming evidence to suggest it's over then ok, but even if the signals for a wild end of the month were merely muted it was still premature to talk in definitive as he did. But the pattern is screaming for many more chances going forward. I dont hate the guy I just dont understand the logic. speaking as a southerner, you lost me right about .....................here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seasonal trends at play this weekend. This sub region should score (possibly big?) with (not that anyone cares and not a complaint I am actually voicing opinion in a positive outcome for y'all) M/D line N getting fringed. Not sure I would be thinking MD line north getting fringed at this time. If what is showing up on current guidance is somewhat accurate this setup has a lot more play with moving north then it does south on future runs. As south trends will be predicated on the initial confluence setup, N trends will not only be dependent on the initial confluence setup but when that confluence begins relaxing as well. So odds probably favor any future trends, if any, will more then likely be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I don't hate that image at this range Yes you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure I would be thinking MD line north getting fringed at this time. If what is showing up on current guidance is somewhat accurate this setup has a lot more play with moving north then it does south on future runs. As south trends will be predicated on the initial confluence setup, N trends will not only be dependent on the initial confluence setup but when that confluence begins relaxing as well. So odds probably favor any future trends, if any, will more then likely be north. Understood and makes sense. But some guidance is South of you guys even. So IF those ideas are right combined with your relaxing confluence then you guys could still be in just the right spot again....which is where I would put my $ right now....tho subject to a refund in the next 72 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Understood and makes sense. But some guidance is South of you guys even. So IF those ideas are right combined with your relaxing confluence then you guys could still be in just the right spot again....which is where I would put my $ right now....tho subject to a refund in the next 72 hours Subject to a refund of $.02?... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yes you do Not today...I may on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just an obs so fwiw....06z euro has a bit more vigorous s/w at hr 90 compared to 00z. Surface reflection is about the same. Certainly looks poised to slide under us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Just an obs so fwiw....06z euro has a bit more vigorous s/w at hr 90 compared to 00z. Surface reflection is about the same. Certainly looks poised to slide under us.... Slide under us in a good way? Or too far under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Slide under us in a good way? Or too far under? Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined. Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low. Just a guess...I hate extrapolating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6z EPS come around at all on weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined. Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low. Just a guess...I hate extrapolating! Little stronger would probably mean a larger precip field and get the guys a little further north into the good stuff. Still too far out to worry about any details. But I am feeling pretty good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just a quick mention but the first in a week or more that the CPC AO ensembles look a lot better , overall concensus on a drop and a few members with a severe drop in the AO Two members to a - 5 SD drop. Nice to see and matches what the GEPS put out yesterday near Greenland but at hour 324. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nice looking NAO and AO forecast. Fits right in with the PSU late February beatdown period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed! Perfect look for 138HR, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Winter uncancel. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Winter uncancel. Lol....he called it first 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 WHY? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Shortest cancel of winter ever. It was like 48 hours maybe. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Winter uncancel. The reply is 10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nice looking NAO and AO forecast. Fits right in with the PSU late February beatdown period. The Pac forcing looks great this morning, and now you see the indicies starting to line up with a typical MJO phase 8 and then a phase 1 composite. Out in the Pac now is the perfect storm lining up to produce snow for our region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Winter uncancel. Haha! That cracks me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: The reply is 10/10. way to go Kevin........ LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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